UFC Vegas 104: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze continues on the main card with a fight between Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh in the lightweight division. Hernandez got back on track with a split-decision win his last time out, meanwhile Holobaugh picked up his second win in his last three fights as he comes into this matchup. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Alexander-Holobaugh prediction and pick. Alexander Hernandez (15-8) dropped back-to-back fights closing the door on his featherweight hopes where he went 0-3 in the division. However, he got back on track back at 155 lbs and will be looking to continue his momentum this weekend when he takes on Kurt Holobaugh. Kurt Holobaugh (21-8) got back into the win column last fight when he dominated his fight against Kaynan Kruschewsky. Now, Holobaugh looks to get back onto a winning streak when he steps inside the octagon at the Apex against Alexander Hernandez this weekend. Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. UFC Vegas 104 Odds: Alexander Hernandez-Kurt Holobaugh Odds Alexander Hernandez: -198 Kurt Holobaugh: +164 Over 2.5 rounds: -215 Under 2.5 rounds: +164 *Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)* Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win Last Fight: (W) Austin Hubbard – DEC Last 5: 2-3 Finishes: 8 (6 KO/TKO/2 SUB) As UFC Vegas 104 approaches, Alexander Hernandez is poised to secure a victory over Kurt Holobaugh in their lightweight clash. Hernandez, coming off a split decision win against Austin Hubbard at UFC 307, has shown significant improvements in his striking accuracy and output. His ability to switch stances and deliver lightning-fast strikes, which troubled Hubbard, could prove to be a decisive factor against Holobaugh. Hernandez’s superior takedown defense, demonstrated in his recent performances, should allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the advantage. While Holobaugh has shown resilience in his UFC return, winning The Ultimate Fighter 31 lightweight tournament, his recent unanimous decision loss to Trey Ogden exposed vulnerabilities in his ground game. Hernandez’s experience against higher-ranked opponents and his more diverse skill set give him an edge in this matchup. With a 40% knockout ratio and a reach advantage, Hernandez has the tools to exploit Holobaugh’s defensive gaps. If Hernandez can maintain the high pace and striking accuracy he displayed in his last fight, he should be able to outwork Holobaugh and potentially secure a late stoppage or a dominant decision victory, further cementing his position in the competitive lightweight division. Why Kurt Holobaugh Will Win Last Fight: (W) Kaynan Kruschewsky – DEC Last 5: 4-1 Finishes: 17 (7 KO/TKO/10 SUB) As UFC Vegas 104 approaches, Kurt Holobaugh emerges as a potential dark horse against the favored Alexander Hernandez. Despite being the underdog at +164, Holobaugh’s recent performances and strategic approach make him a serious threat in this lightweight clash. The 38-year-old veteran, coming off a decisive victory over Kaynan Kruschewsky, has demonstrated remarkable resilience and an ability to capitalize on his opponents’ weaknesses. Holobaugh’s superior striking accuracy of 45% compared to Hernandez’s 41% could prove crucial in a stand-up battle, especially if he can weather Hernandez’s early storm. Hernandez, while explosive and dynamic, has shown inconsistency in his recent outings, going 2-4 in his last six fights. His tendency to fade in later rounds, coupled with questionable fight IQ, opens the door for Holobaugh to exploit. With his excellent durability and well-rounded skill set, Holobaugh has the tools to survive Hernandez’s initial onslaught and turn the tide as the fight progresses. If Holobaugh can implement a patient, strategic game plan, utilizing his experience and superior cardio, he stands a strong chance of outworking Hernandez in the later rounds. This fight could very well see Holobaugh securing a late stoppage or a hard-fought decision victory, proving that experience and tactical acumen can triumph over raw athleticism. Final Alexander Hernandez-Kurt Holobaugh Prediction & Pick In the lightweight bout between Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh at UFC Vegas 104, Hernandez’s explosive striking and athleticism make him a formidable opponent. However, Holobaugh’s experience and strategic approach could pose significant challenges. Holobaugh’s superior striking accuracy and durability might allow him to weather Hernandez’s early storm and capitalize on his opponent’s tendency to fade in later rounds. If Holobaugh can implement a patient game plan, utilizing his grappling skills to control the pace, he could outwork Hernandez and secure a decision victory. Despite this, Hernandez’s knockout power remains a threat throughout the fight. Kurt Holobaugh comes away with the unanimous decision victory, leveraging his experience and cardio to outlast Hernandez. However, the fight’s competitive nature ensures that Hernandez remains a live threat for a knockout finish until the final bell. This matchup has all the ingredients for a closely contested and strategic battle. Final Alexander Hernandez-Kurt Holobaugh Prediction & Pick: Kurt Holobaugh (+164), Over 2.5 rounds (-215)