NO FANS FOR HOUSING PLANS With just a few days before the Easter break and early voting beginning next week, the election campaign is set to get very negative and very busy. Overnight it was the major parties’ housing and economic plans leading the way in a lot of publications, with the latest polling making up the rest (more on that later). The ABC has unsurprisingly led on the showdown between Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his Coalition counterpart Angus Taylor on 7.30 last night, with the broadcaster saying “Australia’s housing affordability crisis sparked an impassioned debate” between the pair. Yesterday, we mentioned how the housing and tax plans proudly announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Coalition leader Peter Dutton at their campaign launches on Sunday were immediately slammed by exasperated economists. That theme continued (and will no doubt for the remainder of the campaign) and formed the backdrop of Chalmers and Taylor’s latest clash. Summarising the scenes from 7.30, the ABC reports “the pair played the blame game as their debate descended into a series of barbs”. The broadcaster highlights Chalmers was asked if Labor’s promise of $10 billion to build 1000,000 new homes for first-time buyers was included in the budget. The treasurer admitted it was not, stating the funds would be split between $2 billion in grants and $8 billion in loans, and is an eight-year program. Apparently the homes will start to be completed from 2027. Chalmers and Taylor spent the rest of the debate clashing over subjects such as: how many homes the Albanese government actually built in the last term, the Coalition opposing Labor’s housing policy in the Senate, and the Coalition’s proposal to cut the Housing Australia Future Fund, the ABC reports. Taylor was also asked by host Sarah Ferguson why the Coalition’s interest tax deductibility for new homes was a good idea all of a sudden, having previously been dismissed. He replied: “We’ve never seen a crisis like we have now, and when I get around the country I hear it when houses are not being completed.” So, what we really got last night was just Chalmers and Taylor defending what economists would say are pretty indefensible policies. Which is exactly what Housing Minister Clare O’Neil and shadow minister Michael Sukkar also did on Q&A last night, claiming their policies won’t increase property prices in the face of much commentary that claims they would. It’s also worth pointing out that it’s not just the experts who aren’t keen on the pledges; some voters don’t rate them either. Before the politicians descended on the ABC studios last night, they had been out and about promoting their new housing plans. And for reasons only he understands, Peter Dutton decided to bring his son to work. Twenty-year-old Harry joined his dad in the marginal Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the Coalition lost to the Greens last time round, the Nine papers report. Young Harry told the gathered press that he’d been “saving like mad” to buy a home, adding: “I’m saving up for a house and so is my sister and a lot of my mates, but it’s almost impossible to get in in the current state.” Now, I know what you’re thinking (and have probably already expressed if you heard the news yesterday): doesn’t Harry’s father have a bit of spare change hanging around to help his son out? A fine question, and one which was put to the Coalition leader multiple times yesterday, but alas, Harry’s dad would not reveal whether he’d be contributing. The Nine newspapers’ report on the latest developments also flagged that new analysis shows the Coalition’s plan to allow first-home buyers to claim as a tax deduction the interest on their mortgage “would deliver high-income earners double the financial benefit received by low-income earners”. The report also highlighted how Albanese found himself yesterday pushing back at “suggestions his own policy to effectively guarantee the loans of first-time buyers would let people enter the property market when they were unable to maintain repayments”. So all in all, a great day for everyone. Elsewhere on the theme of solid economic management, The Australian Financial Review is leading this morning on its interview with Angus Taylor in which he claims the Coalition’s bottom line will be stronger than Labor’s (sidebar: the Coalition is not releasing its costings until the last week of the election campaign). The paper reports Taylor “claims the Coalition’s election costings will show a substantially stronger budget bottom line than under Labor because its $17.8 billion cost of living spending spree comprises temporary measures rather than permanently baked-in policies”. Meanwhile, The Australian leads on apparent concerns among senior opposition figures that Dutton’s attempts to either match or outbid Labor’s cost of living spending threaten his pledge to substantially increase defence spending. The paper writes the figures have warned “it could take a Dutton government until the early 2030s to drive military spending above 2.5% of GDP”, adding: “Liberal sources have warned that tough choices will need to be made to find money for urgently needed weapons and equipment after years of flatlining funding under successive governments hollowed out the navy and left the wider ADF unable to deter Chinese threats.” In terms of the perception of the Coalition campaign in normally favourable circles, it’s perhaps worth highlighting pieces such as this one by Troy Bramston published in The Australian this morning, entitled “Dutton and his team are not ready for prime time”, which list all the things that have gone wrong in the Coalition campaign thus far. POLLING, POLLING, POLLING Leading the Nine newspapers overnight has been its latest Resolve survey, which shows “voters have lifted Labor to a powerful pre-election lead of 53.5% in two-party terms”. The paper says the polling shows some voters have turned away from Peter Dutton and the Coalition due to concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump. The report states the cut in support for the Coalition leaves it at 46.5% in two-party terms, and “suggests that Labor is within sight of holding majority government”. (Do I need to mention my daily caveat about polling anymore? Probably not, let’s just all agree to always keep it in mind.) The Resolve survey also apparently shows Labor has increased its primary vote from 29% to 31%, while the Coalition’s has dropped from 37% to 34%. In other polling, Guardian Australia reports its latest Essential poll shows “Labor has pulled further ahead of the Coalition … after two weeks of policy confusion and backdowns from Peter Dutton’s Liberals”. Perhaps more interesting than the actual numbers of its polling was the last line of the site’s report, which said: “The Essential poll found 53% of Australians said they knew who they would vote [for] and wouldn’t change their mind, 34% might change their mind, and 13% hadn’t yet decided.” As mentioned, pre-polling begins next Tuesday, with the four-day Easter weekend coming up before then. Finally on polling, Roy Morgan says its latest survey shows that “if a federal election were held now the ALP would be returned to government with an increased majority, with the ALP on 54.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the LNP Coalition on 45.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis”. Echoing what others have been saying about the impact of Trump and his never-ending chaos, CEO of Roy Morgan, Michele Levine, said: “In times of uncertainty we usually see voters swing towards incumbent governments — and this reaction has been seen in recent weeks with increasing support for the Albanese government — at least at a two-party preferred level.” She added: “In primary vote terms the Greens are the standout this week with support at 14.5% — a six-month high — while Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ Party has yet to gain traction and slipped back 0.5% to only 1% support, despite spending millions of dollars on every type of advertising.” Talking of the Greens, I mentioned yesterday the party’s pledge to waive all higher education costs for domestic students. Today, the ABC reports the party is pitching an $11.6 billion program to provide free meals at public schools. It comes as Greens leader Adam Bandt prepares to spend the week in Queensland, seeking to sandbag the party’s three seats of Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane, the broadcaster flags. The report says the Greens believe they are on track to hold the seats of Griffith (Max Chandler-Mather) and Ryan (Elizabeth Watson-Brown). “The seat of Brisbane, held by Stephen Bates, remains a three-cornered contest between the Greens, Labor and the Liberals, and the result on voting day may come down to preference flows as to whether the Greens can hold on — though the party is hopeful of a win there too,” the ABC adds. The broadcaster also brings us the latest on the independents and their thoughts on the disclosure requirements for social media content paid for by politicians. In case you missed it, Independent MP Monique Ryan said on Insiders on Sunday she didn’t have an opinion on fellow independent Allegra Spender paying for posts by content creator and mental health advocate Milly Rose Bannister. Her attempts to answer David Speers’ questions on the topic is quite the watch. Anyway, Ryan is now keen to let everyone know that social media content paid for by politicians should be disclosed. “Having now had an opportunity to look at this issue, I fully support the AEC’s position statement from last Friday that influencer content paid for by politicians should be clearly labelled as such,” she said. On the theme of awkward watches, I hate to bring you this news, but the Liberal Party has released a “diss track”. Guardian Australia reports the track, titled “Leaving Labor”, was shared on the opposition’s SoundCloud account on Monday and includes lyrics criticising Labor over the cost of living, claiming the economy was “looking a mess” and that “eggs and cheese” cost $100. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 62, was asked about it yesterday and said it was “beyond my comprehension”. Guardian Australia reports Coalition sources have maintained the track was not generated by AI, but would not reveal the artist supposedly behind it, saying only that it was a “commercial artist”. And, in nothing to do with the election campaign but on the topic of commercial artists, pop star Katy Perry blasted off into space a few hours ago. Perry was joined on the 11-minute flight by Jeff Bezos’s fiancée Lauren Sánchez, CBS presenter Gayle King, former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen, and film producer Kerianne Flynn, the BBC reports. King said the highlight of the space flight was hearing Perry singing Louis Armstrong’s “What a Wonderful World”, the British broadcaster reports, and… I’ve run out of words (literally). ON A LIGHTER NOTE… A question I ask myself every week is “what ingenious method can I use to crowbar cricket and/or golf into the Worm today?” Until this week, it’s proved a tad tricky. In Friday’s edition though, I managed to use the very cute video of four-year-old Poppy McIlroy sinking a monster of a putt on the eve of the Masters tournament in Augusta for some light relief heading into the weekend. I think it’s only fair then that I’m allowed to complete the circle and share the absolutely incredible outpouring of emotion her dad Rory (and the millions of people watching) felt when he finally completed the golfing grand slam on Sunday (local time). It’s six minutes of raw emotion from the 35-year-old who had spent 11 years chasing the greatest prize in golf and damn did he (and those following him) go on a rollercoaster during that time. That embrace between dad and daughter at the two-minute mark of the video (and then his message to Poppy in his victory speech), hoo boy… No, you’re crying. ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL Harry Dutton watches on as his multi-millionaire father awkwardly avoids questions about whether or not he might chip in to help his son buy a house during the biggest housing crisis the country has ever experienced. The 20-year-old apprentice carpenter may have thought showing up on the campaign trail for his increasingly unpopular dad would be enough to secure a bit of assistance from the man who famously leveraged favourable conditions to buy a house at 19 and turn it into a significant portfolio. Seems like it might not be that easy. Why didn’t he want to hug you?Nat Barr The Sunrise host asked Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek on Monday about the half-high-five, half-handshake thing she did with the prime minister at the Labor campaign launch. For obvious reasons, the usual suspects (including the Liberals) tried to paint the encounter between the two as “awkward”, while news.com.au rather overstretched in claiming it had “overshadowed” Labor’s big day. Plibersek and Albanese brushed off the expected questions on Monday, insisting they were still good mates (even as the Nine papers tried to stir things up over the future make-up of the cabinet). CRIKEY RECAP READ ALL ABOUT IT Conditions at Gaza hospitals ‘beyond description’ after Israeli attacks, WHO says (BBC) Fact check: Does the Tasmanian salmon industry pay tax? (The Age) Frantic calls, party concern as Lib candidate under spotlight (The Sydney Morning Herald) US and El Salvador won’t return man who was mistakenly deported (The New York Times) ($) Mark Zuckerberg takes the stand on first day of Meta antitrust trial (CNN) White Lotus star Aimee Lou Wood condemns SNL’s ‘mean and unfunny’ sketch (The Guardian) THE COMMENTARIAT Politicians are offering cash but aren’t fixing our problems — Chris Richardson (AFR): Yet, we’ve conditioned the Australian public to believe in this Magic Pudding stuff (rather than fighting for reforms that can help lift productivity — meaning we’re simply reallocating the pie rather than growing it). More money chasing the same amount of housing is the most well-worn path to failure in Australian policymaking, and both the government and the opposition seem intent on proving that they can double down on that dumbness yet again. The upshot is that the campaigns of both major parties are a dumpster fire of dumb stuff. In the meantime, the world is on fire, and Australians need smart policies way more than we need smart politics. Fat hope of getting that, though. The housing policies of both major parties are bad for Australia’s aspiring homebuyers — Saul Eslake (Guardian Australia): One is left to wonder, why do parties of both major political persuasions keep doing things which they know will put upward pressure on house prices, and thus exacerbate the problem they say they are trying to solve? It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the reason is that they know there are only about 110,000 people who each year succeed in becoming first home buyers. And even if you assume that for every one who does, there are five or six who don’t, that’s still only 700,000 or so votes, tops, for policies that might restrain the rate of house price inflation or halt it altogether. Politicians also know that at any point in time there are more than 11 million voters who own their own homes, and more than 2.25 million who own at least one investment property. The last thing those 11 million to 13 million voters want is anything that might restrain — let alone halt — the rate of property price inflation. So, on the one hand, 700,000 votes, on the other, something north of 11 million — even the dumbest of our politicians can “do that math”. And they do.