Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MAY 07: Chicago Cubs President Jed Hoyer talks on the phone before a game ... [+] against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field on May 07, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Griffin Quinn/Getty Images) Getty Images It was in the fall of 2018 when Theo Epstein famously said the Cubs were headed toward a reckoning with the roster that won the team’s first championship since 1908. That declaration was followed by a drop from 95 wins to only 84 in ‘19, and the Cubs still haven’t gotten back on their feet. Epstein himself was out the door after the 2020 season, just ahead of Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Jed Hoyer was left to oversee the Cubs’ next chapter, and so far the results have been dismal (311-337), with the franchise still searching for its first postseason win since 2017. When the Cubs opened spring training on Sunday, Hoyer’s job status was one of the main storylines. Like Epstein in the role of president/baseball operations, Hoyer had one year left on his contract as general manager when Epstein announced his decision to leave at the end of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Team chairman Tom Ricketts made it clear he was comfortable with the transition to Hoyer, handing him a five-year contract extension. While Ricketts passed up a chance to announce an extension at the team’s highly attended fan convention in January (instead making the focus about Sammy Sosa’s improved relationship with his former team), he could still eliminate Hoyer’s lame-duck status before Opening Day in Tokyo, on March 18). But the prevailing narrative is regime change is coming unless Hoyer gets the Cubs back into the postseason. “I’ve been here for 14 years and sort of generally in my career, I haven’t had much uncertainty,” Hoyer told reporters as camp opened. “I think with uncertainty does come a level of anxiety. I think that would be a lie to say that it doesn’t.” MORE FOR YOU Most Sophisticated Gmail Attacks Ever—FBI Says: Do Not Click Anything Sony Reveals Compensation For All PS Plus Players After PSN Outage Kanye West’s X Account Goes Dark After Hitler-Praising Rant, Jab At Taylor Swift Here’s the good news for Hoyer: He’s off to a very good start saving his job. After adding elite run-producer Kyle Tucker in the first of two significant trades with the seemingly cost-conscious Astros, the Cubs seem stronger on paper than they have since they averaged 97 wins a year in 2015-18. Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota rankings forecast a 90-win season and a +79 run differential for the Cubs, allowing them to run away with a title in the diminished National League Central. Milwaukee (80), St. Louis (78), Pittsburgh (75) and Cincinnati (73) are all projected to win fewer games than last season. Hoyer and his GM, Carter Hawkins, haven’t had the benefit of either the carte blanche spending or the top-of-the-draft picks that helped Epstein turn the Cubs into a monster. Hoyer himself fought against the idea his team was rebuilding when it went 71-91 in 2021 and 74-88 in ’22. The Cubs were treading water, not tanking, with Opening Day payrolls that ranked 12th and 14th, respectively. The Cubs were active around the margins in big free-agent hunts before guaranteeing $177 million over seven years for shortstop Dansby Swanson two years ago — possibly an overpay but a needed signing to demonstrate Wrigley Field could still be a destination. Swanson has carried his weight on back-to-back 83-win teams despite home run totals that have dropped three years in a row, and core muscle surgery could help him restore some of his power. Hoyer and Hawkins lurked in the wings when the Dodgers scarfed up Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and later Roki Sasaki) but were not shut out of the Japanese market. Seiya Suzuki arrived with a five-year, $85-million deal in 2022 and last winter, two months after inducing manager Craig Counsell to bolt Milwaukee, they added left-hander Shoto Imanaga for $53 million over four years. That seemed a gamble given when they knew about Imanaga’s fastball, which averaged 91.7 mph last season), but it is paying off in a major way. Imanaga went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA over a staff-high 173 1/3 innings last season, pounding the strike zone with a swing-and-miss splitter and a heater that induces soft contact. Lefty Justin Steele, who also pitches with a 92-mph four-seamer but rarely allows home runs (an NL-best 0.7/9 innings in ’23 and 0.8/9 in ’24) joins Imanaga and cutter-centric veteran Jameson Taillon in a rotation that could be sneaky-good, especially if newcomers Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea can contribute as depth pieces. But Tucker is the guy fans will want to see when they come to Sloan Park in Mesa. Like Hoyer, he’s on the last year of his contract — but the only uncertainty with him is what will be the first number in his impending nine-figure deal. Tucker led the NL with 112 RBIs in 2023 and was worth 4.2 fWAR in ’24, despite playing only 78 games due to slow-to-heal fracture in his right shin. Despite being a relatively pedestrian fielder, he enters his age-28 season having averaged 4.8 WAR since turning 24. Tucker is projected to hit second in Counsell’s lineup, between Ian Happ and Suzuki. The top of the order could get a bump down the road but for now rookie third baseman Matt Shaw (2023 first-rounder who has hit .303 with 29 home runs in 159 professional games) is penciled in just about catchers Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly. Hoyer’s second trade with the Astros added a veteran closer, Ryan Pressly, to anchor a bullpen that already had promise. Second-year right-hander Porter Hodge, the late-blooming Tyson Miller and rotation refugee Ben Brown all have the stuff to work high-leverage innings. Ryan Brasier, squeezed out of his 40-man roster spot with the Dodgers, was added last week in a can’t-hurt type of move. Hoyer’s argument for a new contract would be helped by a late deal with one of two Scott Boras clients. The Cubs remain in contract with Boras about free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, and are open to talks with Tucker before the end of the season. But some projections have him expected to land a deal in excess of $300 million, which makes it likely he’ll want to hit the open market. But Hoyer has reason to feel good about his position without any other major commitments. He’s put together a team that’s built to win. Follow me on Twitter. Phil Rogers Editorial Standards Forbes Accolades