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21 May, 2025
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eVTOL: Why LA 2028 Olympics may be ‘too late’
@Source: gulfnews.com
The year 2028 would mark a notable new era in urban aviation. It’s when the Los Angeles (LA) 2028 Olympics will be held – also seen as a potential watershed moment for eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft.But is it “too late”?Many argue that this eVTOL rollout date is indeed late.Rigorous certification and safety standards are being put in place, often sequentially – instead of in parallel – likely to delay their rollout where they're most needed, in highly urbanised western cities like New York, Los Angeles and Sao Paolo known for heavy peak-hour traffic .This marks a notable contrast between Asia’s bold push for “air taxi” services and the more cautious approach of US and European regulators. .Here’s why: .The certification process for eVTOLs like Archer’s Midnight and Joby’s S4 reflects a deeply cautious regulatory culture shaped by decades of prioritising “zero-tolerance” for risk. It's also dubbed "regulatory capture".This delays deployment, even when early models show strong safety potential, proven by real-time flight test data..eVTOLs don’t fit clearly into existing categories under the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Aviation Services Agency (EASA): like airplanes or helicopters. .Regulators had to write new rules from scratch. For example, the FAA crafted new rules, combined with new guidance. Since it’s a new technology, it’s like expecting those who regulate horse carriages to write new traffic rules for cars..Revealed: Joby operations chief Bonny Simi shares Dubai air taxi plans, flying with eVTOL.As for EASA, the agency created the two certification categories:Basic category: For eVTOL aircraft where failure conditions would not lead to a catastrophic outcome (e.g., parachute systems, autonomous backup).Enhanced category: For eVTOL aircraft expected to operate in more demanding environments (e.g., urban airspace) with higher safety requirements akin to commercial airliners..Aircraft like Archer’s Midnight and Joby’s S4 must go through a number of tests before getting regulatory nod:Structural integrity testingRedundancy checks (e.g. what happens if a motor fails?, even if there are 8+ motors)Battery “thermal runaway” containment testsCrashworthiness and passenger survivability testsNoise and vibration tolerances Flight envelope validation (altitude, weather, etc.)This takes 5 to 7 years on average for novel aircraft — far more than traditional upgrades of certified planes..Unlike conventional fuel systems, lithium-ion batteries are known to overheat, ignite, or degrade.FAA and EASA require:Thermal runaway prevention systemsHigh-voltage containment systemsBattery lifespan and cycle testingEmergency power management scenariosThis is one of the most time-consuming parts of the regulatory review. For example, the battery lifespan/cycle testing, involving thousands of charge-discharge cycles, must be simulated in a lab..Even if the aircraft is certified, pilots, operators, and routes must be approved under Part 135 (FAA) or EASA's operator rules.There are open questions about the following: Will pilots need traditional licenses? What's the basic training required for each type of eVTOL platform? How will vertiport air traffic be integrated into existing flight corridors?.Months or years of delay resolving such questions could mean make-or-break moments for companies facing regulatory handicap..12 exciting tech to watch in 2025: Drones, eVTOL, AI, 6G, gene editing.This is a big one, but a rather theoretical hurdle. It denotes the idea that bureaucratic red tape dulls innovation. While ensuring safety, this mindset — paired with complex, outdated bureaucratic structures that apply to old-school aviation — is seen as the enemy of innovation. .Agencies like the FAA and EASA face what many in the industry describes as “institutional inertia”, often requiring years to adapt frameworks for novel technologies.For example, as of May 2025, Joby Aviation has claimed to have completed over 40,000 miles of test flights across multiple aircraft, including more than 1,500 flights with its two pre-production prototypes.These extensive tests have encompassed various flight scenarios, as per Avionics International.If this report is true, how many more test flight hours are needed to convince anyone the aircraft is safe and works as intented?.While specific hourly test flight data are available, the extent of these tests indicates a significant accumulation of flight time. Notably, Joby has achieved milestones like piloted transition flights and simultaneous operations of two aircraft..Aviation industry experts say that from an engineering and safety standpoint: No.The FAA and EASA have high safety benchmarks because eVTOLs are meant to operate over cities, with passengers, often in dense urban airspace.But from a global competitiveness and innovation perspective: Arguably, yes.Countries like China, South Korea, and the UAE are advancing faster because they streamline regulatory decisions (less bureaucracy), accept higher risk thresholds in early deployments, and often deploy with trained pilots first in restricted air corridor.Opportunity lossIf US companies like Archer or Joby won’t be allowed to enter service in view of regulatory inertia in the West, they risk falling behind international competitors in market leadership, operational data collection, and public trust.Delaying air taxi rollouts prevents real-world testing that could improve models over time..It’s been said: "Perfection is the enemy of progress", i.e. striving for absolute perfection can prevent you from making any progress at all.More agile regions could soar ahead in commercial air taxi readiness.The eVTOL race should be considered akin to the development of COVID vaccines at a "Warp Speed", instead of leaving the bureaucrats to set the pace.If Europe and the US, the cradle of trains and planes, want to keep their edge, and stay competitive in uban air mobility, it must find a balance between safety and competitive timelines.A second look at regulatory reforms, pilot programmes, and close collaboration with industry innovators may be needed.
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