India’s heavily protected agricultural sector is emerging as a flashpoint in trade talks with the United States, with analysts warning that opening the market to American food imports could endanger small Indian farmers and New Delhi’s long-standing food security policies. Recent reports suggest that India has offered to US President Donald Trump, who previously labelled the country as “tariff king”, to eliminate levies on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals on a reciprocal basis, up to a specified quota. However, the US is reportedly pressuring New Delhi to also ease restrictions on its agricultural sector to allow greater access for American farm exports. Washington has long sought to open up India’s agricultural sector, viewing it as a major trade opportunity, according to analysts. Yet India has fiercely defended its sector, citing food security and the livelihoods of millions of small farmers. The challenge for India is that most Indian farmers are small-scale producers, making the sector highly sensitive to external pressures, according to Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert from the Delhi-based Council for Social Development think tank. Many farms are also less productive than their American counterparts, which typically run large-scale operations. Agriculture makes up 16 per cent of India’s gross domestic product and supports the livelihoods of more than 45 per cent of the 1.4 billion people in the country. “This has been a concern for India for a long time … trade liberalisation is going to hit the small farmers very hard, and that is one of the reasons why India never really negotiated agriculture in trade agreements,” Dhar said. “Agriculture has been the red line. Opening up the market could disrupt livelihoods for these farmers and threaten food security if farmers are disincentivised from certain food crops.” Policy overhaul The US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade rising to US$129 billion in 2024, and India recording a US$45.7 billion surplus. India was among the first nations to launch trade talks with the US following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House in February. However, on April 5, the US imposed what it called a “reciprocal” tariff of 26 per cent on India, only to later put it on hold until July pending discussions, as is the case for most of Washington’s other trade partners facing such levies. An initial deal was announced between both sides after US Vice-President J.D. Vance met Modi in Delhi on April 21. The deal is said to cover 19 categories, including expanded market access for agricultural goods, e-commerce, data storage, and critical minerals, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Analysts say that agricultural goods will be a major sticking point for India in trade talks. For the US, securing access to India’s large consumer base, especially for key crops like corn and soybeans, would represent a significant opportunity for its farmers. As a net food exporter, India imposes an average tariff of 39 per cent on agricultural imports, significantly higher than the 5 per cent levied by the US. Agricultural trade between India and the US remained modest at US$8 billion last year. India’s key exports included rice, shrimp, honey, vegetable extracts, castor oil and black pepper, while the US shipped mostly almonds, walnuts, pistachios, apples and lentils. The US had been eyeing exporting items that were already produced by India, including corn, soybeans and cotton, raising concerns about the adverse impact on Indian farmers, said Sukhpal Singh, a professor and former chairman of the Centre for Management in Agriculture at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. “These are crops that are of interest to the US to export, but it is a concern for India because those are major crops they produce,” Singh said. The issue was also about food technology, as certain US products like genetically modified corn and soybeans were banned in India, he added. To allow such imports, India would need to overhaul its rules on genetically modified foods, potentially introducing alternative labelling to accommodate their sale, Singh said. There are also concerns that if India were to open its agricultural sector to US imports, it may have to offer similar deals to other trading partners such as New Zealand and Australia. Such concerns were the reason why India abruptly withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in November 2019, just as negotiations were nearing completion, said Divya Murali, a research associate at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore (NUS), referring to the 15-member free trade agreement that included Australia and New Zealand. Food security Indian farmers have been heavily protected since the country transformed itself from being deficient in food in the 1950s and 60s to focusing on boosting its food security. This shift had shaped India’s trade policies, ensuring stability of its agricultural sector as foreign competitors were kept out, Dhar said. “The focus of Indian agriculture has been really on ensuring food security,” Dhar said. “The government recognised that dependence on food imports exposes the country to unnecessary political pressures or manipulations.” Murali pointed out that external competition was a serious threat to Indian farmers, particularly small producers, who lacked the economies of scale to be competitive. “Above all, the Indian agricultural sector is not advanced in its operations, and it lacks access to advanced technologies and infrastructure, which further hampers its ability to compete in an open market,” she said. India has to modernise its agriculture sector to ensure its export competitiveness, according to analysts. The sector could not remain exempt from trade talks all the time in an open economy, Dhar said. “We are dealing with agricultural powerhouses [such as the US], so the [Indian] government will have to start investing more in agriculture to improve its efficiency,” he said. Singh noted that liberalisation of India’s agricultural sector could serve as an impetus for government reforms and local farmers to boost their product quality. For now, Dhar said that India must adopt a tough stance in its talks with the US, either by continuing to protect its farmers or offering concessions in other sectors. “If India opens up other industries like automobiles or electronics, it could encourage the US to postpone or scale back its demands for the agricultural sector,” he said. “The government will have to try to convince the US that opening up the market to US agribusinesses could be disastrous for India. The hope is that the US will understand.”