March Madness didn’t have many upsets this year, but the chalk led to a pair of phenomenal games in the Final Four. Tonight should be no different when No. 1 seeds Florida and Houston face off in the national championship at 8:50 p.m. ET. The Gators have two national championships in program history after going back-to-back in 2006 and 2007. They haven’t returned to the title game until now. The Cougars have made six straight Sweet 16s under head coach Kelvin Sampson, but have yet to raise a national championship banner. The best New Jersey sportsbooks are split on the point spread for tonight’s game. Some sites offer Florida -1.5, while others list the Gators as a 1-point favorite. Each sportsbook is in lockstep on the over/under, which is set at 140.5. Here are my Florida vs. Houston predictions and best bets. Florida vs. Houston predictions and best bets Houston +1.5: -115 at FanDuel SportsbookL.J. Cryer to make 3+ 3-pointers: -110 at bet365 Sportsbook Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds. Despite losing just four games this season, Houston hasn’t gotten much respect from oddsmakers. When the NCAA Tournament was whittled down to four teams, the Cougars had the second-worst odds to win the national championship. In the Final Four meeting with Duke, Houston came out on top as 4.5-point underdogs. Houston will play the underdog role one last time tonight, and I expect Sampson’s squad to cut down the nets. There’s a small difference in the odds if you take the Cougars moneyline (-104 at FanDuel), so I recommend playing it safe with the 1.5-point cushion in case the game comes down to the final possessions. Florida ranks third in points scored per game thanks to dominant guard Walter Clayton Jr. and lengthy big men like Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh. Clayton Jr.’s athleticism and sharpshooting mixed with tall forwards who can score inside make the Gators extremely difficult to defend. Florida has the size advantage tonight, but Houston just beat the tallest team in the nation. Duke’s high-powered offense averaged just under 92 points per game in March Madness before facing Houston, and the Cougars held the Blue Devils to 67. Defense wins championships, and no team allows fewer points per game than Houston. The Cougars are also the top-ranked team in Kenpom.com’s defensive efficiency metrics, holding opponents to the fifth-worst 2-point field goal percentage. If Houston gets stops defensively, it can then lean on the dominant guard trio of L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan. Each player averages double-digit scoring and shoots 41.5% or higher from 3-point range. If the Cougars are consistent from beyond the arc tonight, they’ll be hard to beat. Bet365 is offering tremendous value for Cryer to hit at least three 3-pointers. Betting the same market at FanDuel comes with -152 odds. If you want to risk it and bet on Cryer draining 4+ 3-pointers, the odds are as high as +240 at bet365. The fifth-year senior is no stranger to the bright lights of March Madness. Cryer was a member of the 2021 Baylor team that took down Gonzaga in the national championship. He leads the Cougars in scoring and knocked down at least four 3-pointers in three of five NCAA Tournament games this season. Florida vs. Houston moneyline odds analysis Why Florida could win as the favorite Best odds: -110 at Caesars Sportsbook Clayton Jr. has been a force all season but he’s really turned it on in the NCAA Tournament. The Gators’ leading scorer has dropped 30 points or more in back-to-back games, raising his average to 24.6 points per game in March Madness. If Houston double teams Clayton Jr., guards Alijah Martin and Will Richard must knock down their open looks. Richard has only scored 13 total points in the last two games and another underwhelming performance could be fatal for Florida. The Gators rank ninth in defensive efficiency but have gotten too aggressive on that end of the court. Nine of their last 11 opponents have attempted 22 free throws or more. Houston’s offense doesn’t push the tempo, and constant trips to the charity stripe will help the Cougars slow the game down. Why Houston could win as the underdog Best odds: -104 at FanDuel Sportsbook The Cougars never go down easy. All hope seemed lost against Duke in the Final Four when Houston trailed by nine with 3:03 left in the second half. The Cougars then went on a 15-3 scoring run and found a way to win when their season was seemingly doomed. Even Houston’s losses have come by the thinnest of margins. The Cougars dropped four games this season by an average of 3.5 points. J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler have a tough assignment against Florida’s lengthy frontcourt, but they’ll have to keep the Gators from dominating on the glass. Florida ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and giving Clayton Jr. additional scoring opportunities is a recipe for disaster.