In what appears to be the first visible impact of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a move announced in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack — satellite imagery shared by Col Vinayak Bhat (Retd), a military intelligence veteran of the Indian Army, has revealed a sharp reduction in water flow at the Marala Headworks on the Chenab River in Pakistan. Col Bhat, who posted comparative images dated April 21 and April 26 on X (formerly Twitter), pointed out that multiple distributary channels emerging from the headworks have visibly narrowed — with at least one appearing to have dried up entirely. The images suggest a significant disruption in river flow within just five days, highlighting what may be a strategic shift in how India controls transboundary waters. #Pakistan #TerroristNation’s attack on innocent unarmed civilian tourists, a cowardly religious cleansing reciprocated by #India suspending #IWT. The effects seen from comparative satellite imagery of #MaralaHeadworks taken on 4/21/2025 & 4/26/2025.#Pakistan being squeezed dry. pic.twitter.com/6AbCmaxN9S — 卫纳夜格.巴特 Col Vinayak Bhat (Retd) @Raj47 (@rajfortyseven) April 28, 2025 “Water channels emanating from the headworks have reduced in size, and one has totally dried up,” Col Bhat noted. “This indicates storage of water in India after suspension of IWT.” STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHY: THE IMPORTANCE OF MARALA The Marala Headworks is no ordinary irrigation structure. Located on the Chenab River near Sialkot, it is the first major Pakistani water control infrastructure downstream of the India-Pakistan border — barely 8 km from the International Boundary in the Akhnoor sector of Jammu and Kashmir. Just south of the militarily sensitive Chicken’s Neck corridor, the site plays a vital role in regulating water for both kharif (summer) and rabi (winter) cropping in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Given this context, changes observed at Marala are not only hydrological — they are also strategic. According to Col Bhat, the latest developments may represent a trial run by India to understand the time and impact of water flow manipulation across the Line of Control. “We will possibly store water when they require it and release water when they don’t require,” he stated. “Pakistan will either be totally dry or flooded.” INDIA’S HARDENING POSTURE: WATER AS STRATEGIC LEVERAGE The satellite data gains particular significance in light of India’s recent decision to suspend implementation of the IWT — a move that followed the deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, attributed to Pakistan-based proxy group The Resistance Front (TRF). The treaty, in place since 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, has allowed Pakistan unrestricted access to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), while India was restricted to non-consumptive use. Successive Indian governments had maintained the treaty even through war and terror. After the 2016 Uri attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, “blood and water cannot flow together,” and India briefly paused IWT meetings while pushing forward hydropower projects like Kishanganga. However, these moves remained within the treaty framework and had no immediate impact on Pakistan’s water supply. Similarly, after the 2019 Balakot airstrikes in response to the Pulwama terror attack, there was renewed political pressure to leverage river waters, but no tangible hydrological action followed. India’s responses remained primarily military or diplomatic. While the treaty grants Pakistan exclusive rights over the western rivers, India is permitted limited usage—including for storage, irrigation, and hydropower—under specific conditions. The suspension of the IWT, however, removes the obligation for prior notification or coordination. The government, however, appears to be shifting gears now — using water flows as a tool of coercive diplomacy. #Pakistan #TerroristNation’s attack on innocent unarmed civilian tourists, a cowardly religious cleansing reciprocated by #India suspending #IWT. The effects seen from comparative satellite imagery of #MaralaHeadworks taken on 4/21/2025 & 4/26/2025.#Pakistan being squeezed dry. pic.twitter.com/29sVMdMb0o — 卫纳夜格.巴特 Col Vinayak Bhat (Retd) @Raj47 (@rajfortyseven) April 29, 2025 This could be viewed as the first real-time instance of India leveraging geography and hydrology not just symbolically or in project terms, but as a calibrated and tactical response to cross-border terrorism. AGRICULTURAL IMPACT: A LOOMING CRISIS FOR PAKISTAN Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus system waters is total. With more than 80 per cent of its agricultural output tied to irrigation from rivers like the Chenab, any disruption in flow timing or quantity — even temporary — could have devastating consequences. Both the kharif and rabi crop cycles are highly sensitive to timely water availability. Pakistan is already among the most water-stressed nations in the world, with per capita water availability dropping below 1,000 cubic metres — the threshold for scarcity. Any further disruption could push it toward an agricultural and humanitarian crisis. The current pattern, if sustained, could mean unpredictable extremes for Pakistan’s farming regions: sudden drought or flash floods, depending on whether water is held back or released in excess. As Col Bhat noted, “This will hit the crops — both kharif and rabi.” THE BIGGER PICTURE: PRECEDENT, PRESSURE AND THE POLITICS OF WATER The satellite evidence underscores a potential shift from status quo to strategic signalling in India-Pakistan water relations. Even without formally abrogating the treaty, India’s ability to selectively withhold or release water offers a powerful form of pressure, one that can disrupt agricultural cycles and introduce uncertainty into Pakistan’s already strained water and food security calculus. While there has been no official response yet from Pakistan to the images or the visible reduction in water flow, the situation could force Islamabad to either escalate the matter diplomatically or urgently appeal for third-party mediation under the IWT dispute resolution mechanism. Meanwhile, in India, voices advocating for a firmer stance on IWT have received a boost. With visible changes on the ground — or rather, in the riverbeds — New Delhi’s message appears clear: the era of unilateral generosity is over. Whether this becomes a one-off message or the start of a sustained hydraulic strategy may well redefine the rules of engagement between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.