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Investigates Investigates Money Diaries Daft.ie Property Magazine Allianz Home Magazine The 42 Sports Magazine The Journal TV Climate Crisis Cost of Living Road Safety Newsletters Temperature Check Inside the Newsroom The Journal Investigates The Explainer A deep dive into one big news story Sport meets news, current affairs, society & pop culture have your say Or create a free account to join the discussion Advertisement More Stories The land sector is projected to increase its emissions by up to 95% with existing measures currently in place.Alamy Stock Photo Land sector projected to increase its emissions by up to 95% as Ireland drifts from targets Ireland is moving further away from achieving its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 51%. 6.31am, 28 May 2025 Share options IRELAND IS FURTHER away from meeting its climate targets, with some sectors such as Land projected to increase its emissions by up to 95% by 2030, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has forecast. The EPA has published its projections for Ireland’s likelihood of meeting its climate targets between now and 2030. It projects that Ireland will drastically fall short of its 51% greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and that if all current policies in place to reduce emissions are applied, Ireland will manage a 23% reduction. The reduction is in comparison to 2018. Last year, Ireland was projected to achieve a 29% reduction by 2030. The projected change is due partly to the country’s practises in consuming fossil fuels, and partly to updated sciences that have readjusted the projections. Ireland will not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42% reduction by 2030, the EPA said. A maximum reduction of 22% is forecast. Ireland faces colossal fines from the EU if it does not significantly reduce its emissions – the worst case being a fine of over €26 billion, and the best case a fine of between €3.4 billion and €7.5 billion. Minister for Climate, Environment and Energy, as well as Transport, Darragh O’Brien, said that the government is “fully aware” of the scale of the climate challenge and is focused on delivering change. What sectors in Ireland are producing the largest amount of emissions? Agriculture and Transport are the sectors that produce the largest amount of emissions. Transport will exceed its Sectoral Emissions Ceiling, a cap placed on the amount of emissions the sector can emit in order to meet national and EU targets. The Land sector, LULUCF, which covers land use, land-use change, and forestry, while responsible for around 6.6% of Ireland’s total emissions at present, is projected to increase its emissions by up to 95% with existing measures currently in place. With additional measures, it may increase by up to 42%. This has been partly put down to the age of Ireland’s forestry and an increase in deforestation. Agriculture, which is responsible for just under 38% of Ireland’s total emissions, is now being examined differently by the EPA. Updated science has led the EPA to determine that the sector can no longer be compared to its sectoral emissions ceiling as other sectors are. Sectoral emissions ceilings are maximum greenhouse gases emission outputs permitted for certain sectors of the economy over a specific time period – in this case, between 2018 and 2030. Sectors Building, Agriculture, Transport, and Industry are all set to be exceeded, the EPA reports. Each carbon budget is projected to be exceeded. Advertisement Measures to reduce emissions Measures to reduce emissions are also not performing at a level to meet targets. Onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar energy is not projected to meet the level set out in 2024′s Climate Action Plan. As of 2024, there were 148,000 electric vehicles in Ireland. This is projected to reach up to 640,000 by 2030.Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo Biomethane, a natural renewable gas that is the purified version of biogas produced from the breakdown of organic matter, is projected to fall short in producing CAP’s energy levels as set out. Similarly, District Heating is significantly down, projected to produce 0.214 trillion watt-hours of the 2.7 trillion watt-hours set out in CAP 2024. Electric vehicle numbers are currently projected to reach 640,750 with additional measures, and 560,000 with existing measures. This is still significantly off target: the earlier figure by 9% and the latter figure by 21%. As of 2024, there were 148,000 electric vehicles in Ireland. Of those vehicles, 82,500 were fully electric and 66,500 were plug-in electric hybrid vehicles. The gap between recently available figures and projected figures for 2030 raises questions as to whether Ireland will manage to meet the lower end figures even with additional measures. Minister O’Brien said in a statement regarding the projections: “Electric vehicle sales are up – by 23% in April alone – and not just in cities. Rural counties like Carlow are showing real momentum with a 42% increase in EV sales for the first 4 months of the year compared to last year.” He outlined several government initiatives that are hoped to substaintially offset Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions. “We know that the EPA projections are not absolute forecasts; they reflect delivery to date. The first Climate Action Plan of this Government was delivered last month. “Cross-departmental taskforces are in place. Governance arrangements have been strengthened, with the first meeting of the new Climate Action Programme Board held last week, involving senior officials from all the main sectors – including energy, transport and agriculture. “Its remit is clear: to focus on accelerated delivery of the actions needed to close the emissions gap.” Unsure of what exactly is happening with the earth’s climate? Check out our FactCheck Knowledge Bank for essential reads and guides to finding good information online. Visit Knowledge Bank Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Support The Journal The Journal's climate change newsletter Follow the biggest news story of our times. 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