As the Cannes Lion Festival kicks off, IPG’s media global media investment and intelligence unit Magna is forecasting that ad revenue for media owners will climb 4.9% year over year to $979 billion globally in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 6.1% growth in December. The downward revision is due to “the deterioration in the economic outlook and a decline in business confidence,” Magna global market research executive vice president Vincent Létang said. “Magna had long anticipated a slowdown in the global advertising market in 2025 following an exceptionally strong 2024,” he explained. “So far, the slowdown has been relatively modest. Digital media, in particular, performed better than expected in the first quarter. Magna believes that the marketing industry has learned important lessons from the Covid period — recognizing the value of maintaining consistent communication and adopting balanced mediastrategies, especially during times of consumer uncertainty.” Magna expects the global ad market to reaccelerate in 2026 as the economy stabilizes and major events return, including the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections. It projects global ad sales will rise 6.3% and surpass $1 trillion for the first time, while the U.S. ad market will grow 7.8% to cross the $400 billion milestone. Per its latest forecast, traditional media owners, who include TV, radio, publishing and out-of-home, are expected to see ad revenues decline 3% to $264 billion due to economic uncertainty. Adjusted for the lack of U.S. elections and Olympics in 2025, global TMO revenues would be flat. Television, radio and publishing ad sales are projected to fall 5%, 1% and 6%, respectively, while out-of-home and cinema ad revenues are expected to grow 5%. The figures include non-linear ad sales, such as ad-supported streaming, digital audio and digital publishing, which account for 25% of total TMO ad revenues and are growing 15% to 30% annually. Magna estimates that streaming ad revenues represent 15% of total long-form video advertising revenue worldwide, totaling $23 billion out of $153 billion. In more advanced markets like the U.K. and the U.S., this figure is already between20% and 25%. Meanwhile, digital pure players are expected to see ad sales grow 8% to $715 billion, driven by rising usage, AI innovation and retail media networks. Search and retail media ad sales will rise 8% to $357 billion, social media ad sales will grow 11% to $242 billion and short-form video will increase 7% to $80 billion. Despite expecting that total ad spending would grow in 2025, Magna warned that technology, pharmaceutical, retail and automotive advertising would all be challenged by economic slowdown as well as supply chain and trade disruptions. However, it noted that consumer packaged goods, finance, insurance, telecoms, healthcare and travel should be relatively immune. Magna expects global automative advertising to decline 2% in 2025 and 3% in the U.S., with spending on traditional media channels declining in the high-single digits. It added that the loss of U.S. federal electric vehicle subsidies and new European regulations on Chinese vehicle imports would weigh on the auto industry and its marketing investment in 2026. The U.S. remains the largest advertising market in 2025, accounting for 41% of global ad spend, followed by China, Japan, the U.K. and Germany. Together, these five largest ad markets concentrate 73% of global ad spend. The total U.S. ad market is expected to grow 4.6% to an all-time high of $398 billion in 2025, with TMO revenues expected to decline 7.1% to $104 billion and DPP revenue to grow 9.6% to $294 billion.