Retired Lieutenant General HR McMaster is best known for his time serving as one of America’s national security advisers in the first Trump administration. As a beacon of common sense and rationality in the midst of Donald Trump’s chaotic first term, not unexpectedly, his ability to influence the US president’s decision making lasted only 13 months. As a military historian, McMaster’s text on leadership inside the halls of US power during the Vietnam War, entitled Dereliction of Duty, was a New York Times bestseller. More importantly for us, during and after his time at the US Military Academy, McMaster played rugby. “To win in rugby,” he said, ”you have to be committed to each other and work together, play together as a team. And that’s what combat requires.” With such a heritage, it is no accident that aspects of his military strategies are transferable to rugby. I recently listened to a podcast of McMaster discussing the USA’s lack of preparedness for future military confrontations. At the same time, as if by divine intervention, the jingoistic, hubristic media barrage for the next Lions tour arose, phoenix like, from the ashes of the last Lions defeat. The money-making marketing machine that is the beating heart of the Lions organisation has fired into overdrive. It pummels the rugby community’s social media algorithms with the mindless romantic mythology that everything has changed and the Lions are morally superior to the south. None of this mentions the fact that this century, the Lions have won only a single series. You do not require a noted military historian like McMaster to tell you that there is nothing morally superior about four strong nations combining their forces and taking on a single country. The combined strength of the four should always win, but history shows they do not. The Lions marketing machine never mentions the blight on rugby’s soul that was their last tour to South Africa in 2021. The style of rugby played by both teams and the lack of respect from both coaching camps towards the officials and the ethos of the game was nothing short of disgraceful. The Lions would do well to consider one of McMaster’s military theories that he calls “the Vampire Fallacy”. It warns against the assumption that the nature of war (or rugby) has fundamentally changed. Organisations that believe everything has evolved and neglect their foundational truths expose themselves to catastrophic failure. “Do not believe,” warns McMaster, “that future war (or rugby) will be fundamentally different from all that has gone before.” The foundation of successful military and rugby campaigns begins with leadership. Be it Hannibal, Dwight D Eisenhower or Willie John McBride, powerful leaders bring success. Maro Itoje’s credentials as a captain are brief. His leadership in this year’s Six Nations was, at best, rocky and at worst lacking inspiration. He will be greatly tested in Australia. [ Gordon D’Arcy on tough times in rugby: I cried in private. Leaned on those I trusted. I came out the other sideOpens in new window ] [ Munster stick with winning formula for vital visit of BenettonOpens in new window ] It may be unfair to compare him with legendary winning Lions captains from the past, such as McBride and Martin Johnson. But, as John Wayne said regarding the dangers of becoming the new sheriff of Dodge City, “that comes with the badge”. If you want to comprehend the mental strength required to succeed in the white-hot heat of a Lions test match, watch the great Jim Telfer deliver his iconic words to his forward pack before the winning Test of the 1997 Lions tour of South Africa. Like George Patton, the famous US army, Telfer understood that much of leadership’s effect comes from a sense of theatre. I had the double privilege of coaching against Jim Telfer and then working for him. He is a wonderful man who invoked respect, admiration and a healthy dose of fear. His brand of leadership inspired Martin Johnson to become a great captain. Andy Farrell and Itoje have a massive legacy to live up to. Whatever voice Itoje finds as a leader, it is essential it contains the substance of Telfer’s message − demanding the mental strength needed to chase constant improvement. Itoje’s counterpart will most likely be the Wallabies number eight Harry Wilson. As a country boy from Gunnedah in western New South Wales, he is straightforward, an old-school warrior. He lives the much-loved rugby philosophy that asks: “Why use the handle to open the door when you can kick it in?” I suspect that Wilson’s leadership style is one that McMaster would admire in battle. It is simply “follow me”. If we follow McMaster’s Vampire Theory that essentially rugby has not changed – just as on the first Lions tour to Australia in 1899, or McBride’s legendary 1974 team or Telfer’s 1997 heroics – the pack that dominates will win the series. In the dying seconds of the third and deciding test of the 2001 series, Justin Harrison stole the last lineout of the match from the hands of the Lions five metres from the Australian line. It ensured that the Wallabies would lift the Tom “Rusty” Richards Cup. So too will this Lions tour pivot on the battle of the packs. The warning for the north is that within Australian rugby there has been significant and rapid changes since the car crash that was the Wallabies’ performances at the 2023 World Cup. While the pipeline for producing high-performance players is measured in years and not months, the professional game in Australia has rebounded faster than many thought possible. This will enable the Wallabies to field 23 players with far more cohesion than any would have thought possible after they were knocked out of the last World Cup by Fiji. The long-term succession plan of the Australia coaching team has been finalised, confirming that Les Kiss will take control from Joe Schmidt in 2026 and Laurie Fisher is to remain as the forwards coach. This means Australia will have three senior coaches who all worked inside the Irish system. They will be coaching against a Lions team led by Irish coaches. McMaster also tells us that in every battle, the enemy has a say in the outcome. Come the Lions test match series, the Wallabies will have their say. Don’t say you have not been warned.