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20 Mar, 2025
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Michigan can dream big in March Madness, but must get past UC San Diego first
@Source: mlive.com
DENVER — A media member with no affiliation to Michigan sat courtside as the Wolverines practiced at Ball Arena on Wednesday. He was struck by Michigan’s size. “That Danny Wolf kid is much bigger than he looks on TV.” If Thursday’s game between Michigan and UC San Diego were decided by which one looks more like a basketball team, there would be a clear winner. It will not be. The NCAA Tournament begins for the Big Ten Tournament champs on Thursday night with a first-round matchup against the 30-4 Tritons. It will be the second game of the evening session in Denver and tip approximately at 10 p.m. ET (8 local) on TBS. Any Xs-and-Os breakdown has to start with the Wolverines having the ball. Can they avoid giving said ball to UC San Diego? The Tritons are second nationally in forcing turnovers (per kenpom). Only two teams in the NCAA Tournament field are more turnover-prone than Michigan. Head coach Dusty May shared an interesting (and optimistic) perspective on Wednesday. “It’s obviously terrifying,” he said. “We have a weakness and they have something that could really expose that weakness because it’s their strength. “But the one thing it does also, it really heightens the awareness of what they’re doing. We know that we’ve struggled with (turnovers) and we know how important it is to them. So I do think there could be a reversal (where) we’re so cautious and our awareness and senses are so heightened that it could be a good thing.” UC San Diego plays a “no-middle” defense in which it tries to force teams to drive baseline into help. As a result, the Tritons allow a heavy volume of 3-point attempts. They will switch screens at every position. There are some similarities with Nebraska, a team Michigan beat 49-46 last month. “They kind of ball watch a lot and they go for steals,” Michigan guard Rubin Jones said. “They gamble a lot. So I think it’ll be big for us to just kind of slow down a little bit, play with a little more patience.” UC San Diego has decent size on the perimeter but not in the frontcourt. The starting center, junior Nordin Kapic, is 6-foot-8. (The Austria native faced Michigan’s Russian center, Vladislav Goldin, in an exhibition game a few years ago when Kapic was at Lynn University and Goldin at Florida Atlantic.) “We’ll try to take advantage of our size,” Michigan guard Roddy Gayle Jr. said, referencing 7-foot teammates Goldin and Wolf. The goal, Gayle said, will be to “dominate the offensive glass” and finish around the basket. The easiest path to offensive success would be making shots. Michigan found some offensive rhythm in Indianapolis but still hasn’t torched the nets in quite some time. Point guard Tre Donaldson looked like his old self, though, and he knows that’s critical for Michigan. “For this team to be at its best I have to play with confidence and play with my swagger,” Donaldson said. “I get everybody going.” He’s not wrong. On the other end of the court, Michigan will have to deal with UC San Diego’s 3-point-heavy attack. The Tritons went 12 for 29 from 3 in the Big West championship, with Hayden Gray going 6 for 7. Because all five players on the floor will launch from deep, Michigan forward Will Tschetter compared the Tritons to Wisconsin, a team Michigan beat twice this season, including in Sunday’s Big Ten Tournament championship. How Goldin adjusts to getting pulled away from the paint will be a major key to the game. UC San Diego commits very few turnovers and has the Big West Conference player of the year in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. (His first name is pronounced “uh-NEE-wuh-nee-wuh”; many of his teammates call him “Niwa.”) Gray, the league’s defensive player of the year, battles the 6-foot-6, 200-pound Tait-Jones in practice and called him “one of the tougher and more physical players I’ve ever had to guard.” Tait-Jones has attempted and made more free throws than any player in the country. The New Zealand native used to play rugby. “I carry a bit of a physicality into basketball,” he said. “I like to bang bodies and do all that.” He seeks contact and, when a defender retaliates, shifts his body to draw a whistle. The Tritons are comparing Michigan to Big West rival UC Irvine, mostly because both teams have a 7-foot-1 center. In reality, Michigan is the best team they’ve faced all season. Consider this: Michigan played three Quad 1 games in a row to win the Big Ten Tournament. That matches the number of Quad 1 games UC San Diego played all season. The Tritons split a pair of close games on the road against eventual NCAA Tournament teams, losing at play-in loser San Diego State and winning at 10 seed Utah State. Much has been made about Michigan’s NCAA Tournament draw, and that cuts both ways. “My initial reaction was how the Big Ten Tournament champs with all those Quad 1 wins ended up as a 5 seed for us,” UC San Diego coach Eric Olen said. Michigan is 25-9 and has won a bunch of games where it didn’t shoot well from 3 or turned it over a bunch or, sometimes, did both. May and his staff will come up with a sound game plan for Thursday night, and he trusts the Wolverines will adjust on the fly. With a unique offense — no other team puts two 7-footers in pick-and-roll action — and consistently stingy defense, Michigan is capable of a deep run. The path to a Final Four, to Atlanta, to the second round starts on Thursday night. “We have no idea how we’re going to win this game but we believe that we’re going to,” May said. “We’re going to figure it out during the game. The game is going to tell us something and we’re equipped — because of our league, because of our pre-conference schedule — to figure out a way to win that game.” BETTING: Check out our guide to the best Michigan sportsbooks, where our team of sports betting experts has reviewed the experience, payout speed, parlay options and quality of odds for multiple sportsbooks.
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