New Caledonian political leaders and the French government are scheduled to resume political status talks on 29 April, when France’s Overseas Minister Manuel Valls returns to Noumea. For Valls, “the objective of this phase will be to reach an overall agreement on the institutional future of New Caledonia.” After initial discussions in Paris in February, then two rounds of talks in Noumea, the French State has welcomed progress during recent discussions with political leaders of both pro- and anti-independence groups – the first trilateral roundtables involving all parties since 2021. However, despite the dialogue, there are still a range of contentious issues that may delay or derail a deal to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord, which has governed New Caledonia’s economy, institutions and governance for more than a quarter of a century. Since he left Noumea on 1 April, Valls has continued to hold bilateral video-conferences with the different parties, in preparation for the next round of talks later this month. Formal negotiations are due to commence when Valls flies back to Noumea, with the Overseas Minister stating that the objective of this new phase will be to “reach a global agreement on the institutional future of New Caledonia.” Before leaving, Valls presented the six different delegations involved in the talks with a draft negotiating text on 30 March. All parties then agreed that “the negotiations will be based on the draft agreement proposed by the government.” On 8 April, the Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS) issued a statement accepting the French State’s draft agreement as the basis for negotiations. The main independence coalition noted: “We have reaffirmed our willingness to build a fair and shared political solution that will lead us to the successful achievement of our country’s trajectory towards full sovereignty… Full sovereignty is no longer a dream; it is a reality that we must strive to achieve today.” However the FLNKS statement suggests the independence movement won’t be rushed into a deal on the basis of this draft: “This document only reflects an even stronger bond of belonging to France. It leads us into a period of uncertainty, with no precise timeframe for the transfer of sovereign powers, or even any guarantee that we will be able to exercise our right to self-determination.” Developing a global agreement The French government’s negotiating text tries to summarise a range of complex and interconnected issues that have divided the independence movement from conservative Loyalist parties that wish to remain within the French Republic. The draft paper presented to delegations flags key areas for debate and agreement, including: exercising the right to self-determination; the evolution of sovereign powers currently held by the French State and possible scenarios for a new sharing of sovereignty; reform of New Caledonia’s political institutions, potentially changing the balance of powers between municipal government, the three provinces and the Congress and Government of New Caledonia; and the redefinition of New Caledonian citizenship (a unique achievement of the 1998 Noumea Accord) which defines the restricted electoral rolls for local political institutions and proposes greater employment rights for New Caledonians above other French nationals resident in the Pacific territory. As with the Noumea Accord, a final political agreement on these issues would be codified a fundamental law specific to New Caledonia “defining the principles, institutions and shared values, and adoption procedure, for inclusion in the French Constitution.” After Valls tabled the negotiating text, politicians across the spectrum acknowledged the progress in discussions, but flagged ongoing differences on issues of self-determination and political independence. Loyalist politician Nicolas Metzdorf tweeted on 1 April: “No agreement yet, but small steps forward. Positions remain far apart, especially around self-determination.” Anti-independence leader Sonia Backès, the President of New Caledonia’s Southern Province, said: “The positions are very far apart in terms of some subjects. In spite of everything, we’re taking small steps forward on a number of things, and we’re saying things to each other that needed to be said.” Dominique Fochi, secretary general of the largest independence party Union Calédonienne (UC) is spokesperson for the FLNKS. Speaking to Islands Business, Fochi said that “with the draft agreement put forward by the French State, it certainly necessary that we work on the key things that they put forward. But we can’t really see ourselves in what has been proposed by the French government.” “Later this month, the FLNKS will hold a convention, just before the arrival of Minister Valls,” he said. “It’s at that point that we’ll set out the current status of our key demands, such as the involvement of the United Nations and other topics.” Transfer of sovereign powers Since the signing of the Noumea Accord in May 1998, a range of legal and administrative powers have been transferred from Paris to the Congress and Government of New Caledonia. However France still retains control of the “sovereign powers” (competences régaliennes) that would need to be transferred to an independent Kanaky-New Caledonia, including defence, security, currency, justice and police and most aspects of foreign relations. The draft negotiating text proposed by the French government foreshadows “a new sharing of sovereignty or the accession to full sovereignty including the transfer of sovereign powers, which could be the subject of an immediate delegation to France.” However more than a quarter of a century ago, the Noumea Accord already established “shared sovereignty” between the French State and New Caledonia, and some independence parties question whether the new formulation fundamentally advances on the status quo. The negotiating text suggests that security, military and legal powers are the prerogative of sovereign states, and thus would remain with France. The text suggests that the French Pacific Franc (CFP) could be renamed, but this would require agreement with both French Polynesia and New Caledonia, but the new currency would remain pegged to the euro. Under the Noumea Accord, foreign affairs is a shared power between the French State and the Government of New Caledonia, but the Pacific dependency’s colonial status restrains independent partnerships with neighbouring countries. The draft text makes some nuanced concessions over France’s control of international relations, suggesting the possibility of “systematic participation in international negotiations led by France in areas of interest to New Caledonia in its regional space.” New Caledonia is already a full member of the Pacific Islands Forum and currently has its own delegates based in French embassies in Canberra, Wellington, Port Moresby, Port Vila and Suva. But Noumea’s desire for regional integration is hampered by France’s prickly attitude to any suggestion that they are not ultimately in control of regional diplomacy. Last October, as then President of New Caledonia Louis Mapou welcomed an information mission of Forum prime ministers to Noumea, he spoke with Islands Business about the frustrations of dealing with French interference in New Caledonia’s regional diplomacy. “I raised with them some of the obstacles and constraints, which are directly related to our political status – we aren’t an independent state that has the freedom to work on many of these issues that we must all address in the future,” Mapou said. “Members of my government, for example, raised with the [Forum] delegation that we have a trade agreement with Vanuatu, but we have been unable to bring it to fruition for more than two years.” Stumbling blocks The FLNKS has flagged other issues for discussion with the French State during bilateral talks, separate from the proposed trilateral negotiations in late April. The independence movement has stated that “supervision by the United Nations is a central issue that must be addressed before the next phase begins, because our fight must be in line with international law.” FLNKS spokesperson Dominque Fochi told Islands Business: “The issue of the United Nations is not one to be sorted out with the Loyalists, but rather with the French State. France is the administering power and we are a national liberation movement, so it’s within this framework that we asked for the supervision of the United Nations.” “It’s within these bilateral talks that we want to address our fundamental demands, and not in front of our Loyalist partners,” he said. “There are some things that must be discussed directly with the French State. We are the national liberation front, so these talks are between a colonised people and our coloniser, the administering power.” Another sticking point is the role of FLNKS President Christian Tein in future negotiations. Tein, a leader of the protest movement CCAT, was elected as president at last August’s FLNKS Congress, to the anger of both anti-independence politicians and leaders of the pro-independence Parti de Libération Kanak (Palika) and Union Progréssiste Mélanésienne (UPM), which have since suspended their role in the coalition’s Political Bureau. Five CCAT leaders remain in pre-trial detention in jails across France, awaiting trial over charges from last year’s riots and clashes. Tein is held at a prison in Mulhouse, near France’s border of Germany, but the FLNKS delegation has proposed that he could join bilateral talks with the French State by videolink. Last week, UC President Emmanuel Tjibaou noted that despite Tein’s jailing 18,000 km away from New Caledonia, “I was able to have a discussion with the FLNKS president on the strategy to be undertaken. He reaffirmed that we must push the discussion to the end.” Tjibaou is also seeking to maintain dialogue with Palika and UPM, as the two independence parties have joined the recent talks under the banner of the Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance (UNI) parliamentary group, separate from UC-FLNKS. On 12 April, Palika held a congress at Saint-Thomas tribe near Poindimié to report progress on the talks. Party spokesperson Judicaël Selefen confirmed: “We’ll continue with the negotiations, since the strategy of dialogue to seek a consensus seems to be bearing fruit. In line with what has been done since 2022, we have to continue.” Dominique Fochi acknowledged differences between UC-FLNKS and UNI, but said that “even though there are two separate delegations, there are many areas of convergence between us.” “When it gets to the fundamentals, we have a common objective of emancipation and decolonisation of the country,” he said. “In 2018, we all developed a common project for Kanaky-New Caledonia, which still unites us. However there remain some areas of difference, particularly over the modalities of how to negotiate the trajectory towards independence.” Referendum process During the three referendums held under the Noumea Accord between 2018 and 2021, New Caledonians were asked to vote Yes or No on independence. In contrast, the draft negotiating text suggests that any future referendum on self-determination would be a decision whether to adopt a political project agreed by all parties. There are, however, elements in the French State’s negotiating draft that are unlikely to be accepted by the independence movement. The draft text does not include a date for any future referendum, and proposes that a decision to proceed towards another vote would require a 3/5 majority of members of the Congress of New Caledonia (under the 1998 Noumea Accord, only a third of Congress members were required to proceed to a referendum). Given that indigenous Kanak make up less than half the population, the FLNKS will likely resist this effective veto by Loyalist parties. This issue is complicated by a negotiating proposal to change the representation of New Caledonia’s three provinces in the islands’ national legislature, the Congress of New Caledonia. Under the Noumea Accord, people elected from the larger Southern province – which includes the capital Noumea – have 32 seats in the Congress; while the rural Northern Province has 15 seats and the outlying Loyalty Islands Province just seven. Members of the Loyalist bloc and the anti-independence party Rassemblement–Les Républicains have argued for federalism for New Caledonia’s three provinces, while remaining within the French Republic. This federation proposal would involve the transfer of greater financial and administrative responsibility from the central Government of New Caledonia to the three provinces (which each have their own local assembly, administration and provincial president). Loyalists have long argued for a re-allocation of taxes and finances between the provinces, to recognise the growing mobility of people from the rural provinces to the capital Noumea and surrounding towns like Paita, Dumbea and Mont Dore. However independence leaders will likely be reluctant to accept the reduction of political representation from the two Kanak-majority provinces, or cuts to rural areas with ongoing infrastructure and development challenges. Many independence leaders fear that “federalism” is a codeword for partition, a breach of the Noumea Accord that states that “it will not be possible for one part of New Caledonia alone to achieve full sovereignty, or alone to retain different links with France.” Earlier this year, UC president Emmanuel Tjibaou said: “We fear that the vision proposed by some, who want an internal federalism, exacerbates and ends up institutionalising a territorial and ethnic divide. If it accepted such a trajectory, the French State would contribute to creating apartheid.” Is a deal possible soon? During Valls’ last visit in late March, anti-independence leaders welcomed the frank dialogue during the tripartite discussions. They noted, however, that there were still significant differences between the independence movement and those parties that want to remain within the French Republic. Given ongoing debates about self-determination, key conservative anti-independence leaders have suggested they will not be rushed into a deal. Virginie Ruffenach of the anti-independence party Rassemblement–Les Républicains has told journalists: “We are not in favour of a deal at all costs or a bad deal. We will make an agreement if it is appropriate, from our point of view, for all New Caledonians.” These concerns are echoed by Union Calédonienne and other smaller FLNKS members. The statement from the coalition on 8 April noted: “This is the last agreement we will sign before our independence. For the FLNKS, it is out of the question to wait even more years to extricate our people from colonial alienation and from this deadly tutelage….It is vital that we prevent their intentions from being formalised by a political agreement negotiated in haste to the detriment of our aspirations.” While acknowledging the need to continue dialogue, FLNKS spokesperson Dominque Fochi told me that “we need to build a new agreement on solid foundations.” “To build the future, we must not rush to create short-term solutions that will cause problems in the long term,” he said. “So we mustn’t drag our feet, but we shouldn’t rush into things. We want to create a win-win situation, with an agreement that everyone can accept.” Competing pressures The French government is eager to push forward towards a deal, despite differences over the pathway to independence. However there remain competing pressures that may derail the timetable. These include tensions arising from the economic fallout after six months of conflict in 2024, as well as political tensions in Paris, with the government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou facing possible no-confidence motions in coming months. In a TV interview before he left, Valls highlighted the economic crisis, urging New Caledonian leaders to push forward on a deal: “The situation in New Caledonia is extremely difficult. Economically, it’s in the doldrums. There is a social situation that worries me a great deal. The number of homeless people has exploded, people are out of work, children are not enrolled in school or are not eating in the canteen, and the health system could collapse. If there is no political agreement, New Caledonia is heading for disaster.” Data from New Caledonia’s Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (ISEE) paints a grim picture. In February, around 6,000 people remained on full unemployment benefits, but many will soon reach the end of their period to receive entitlements. Private sector employment has been hard hit, but the government’s recent austerity budget for 2025 will also impact public sector jobs. The number of employees eligible for part-time work subsidies – paid to the employer by the French State – rose again in February to 6,360. However, the level of these payments have fallen since 1 January (dropping from 70% to 50% of salary), and will reduce again by 30 June. ISEE’s economic data for the 4th quarter of 2024 highlights the scale of economic fallout in #NewCaledonia: number of tourists down 69%; imports (60.6 billion CFP), down 34.6%; Exports (27.1 billion CFP) down 55.7%, mainly from the reduced export of nickel ore and metal. Earlier this year, the Congress of New Caledonia adopted an austerity budget, reflecting the loss of taxes from failing businesses. Even with thousands unemployed, the new government led by Rassemblement’s Alcide Ponga has proposed cutting public services, and the loyalist-dominated Southern Province has slashed scholarships for students with less than 10 years residency in the province, disadvantaging Kanak youth whose families have moved to the capital. Reflecting on last year’s youth revolt, Union Calédonienne’s Pierre-Chanel Tutugoro noted: “Young people will not benefit from this budget. Where we have made cuts is always in the youth sector. We have the impression that we have an anti-Kanak, anti-islander budget.” UC’s Dominique Fochi told Islands Business that the FLNKS was also concerned that the progress since February could also be compromised by political changes in Paris. “There’s a level of instability at the national level, with many no confidence motions that we must take account of,” he said. “If tomorrow the government were to fall, we might have to start again with another government.” Last month, Marine Le Pen, leader of the extreme-right Rassemblement National (RN) and other RN politicians were convicted for embezzling funds from the European Parliament. A French court handed Le Pen a four-year suspended jail sentence and an immediate five-year ban from public office (a verdict she plans to appeal). The verdict damages her run for the French Presidency in 2027 and – echoing Donald Trump – RN may seek payback against its political opponents. Dominque Fochi noted: “Marine Le Pen was convicted by a court, so we don’t know how Rassemblement National will react. So our leaders have argued that we all need to protect the many advances that have been agreed since we began the talks this year.” Taking office last December, François Bayrou is the sixth French Prime Minister appointed by Emmanuel Macron since the President’s election in 2017. However his tenure may be short-lived: both RN and the Left’s New Popular Alliance are considering mid-year no-confidence motions against the government. Speaking on local TV, UC President Emmanuel Tjibaou stated that he had proposed a draft resolution to protect the progress made so far in New Caledonia’s talks, to avoid “possible backsliding, as was the case with previous governments.” Tjibaou stressed: “We are ready to sign agreements if decolonisation, as detailed in the Noumea Accord, is reaffirmed. For us, emancipation means full sovereignty, with shared powers during a transitional phase.”