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OBF: Don’t expect the Celtics to move away from 3-point land despite loss
@Source: bostonherald.com
“Hos long will the Celtics keep jacking up 3-pointers?”
The answer to this Google search: “As long as it takes.”
Perhaps new owner Bill Chisholm may offer Celtics fans a pardon once he realizes that you CAN shoot two-pointers and drive to the basket in the NBA. And then adjusts the roster accordingly.
Anyone still up for a “Giannis for Jaylen” trade? Milwaukee isn’t that bad, JB. Oscar Robinson, Kareem, Doc Rivers, Chris Farley and yours truly flourished in Beer City.
Boston’s NBA-playoff record 45 missed 3-pointers in 53 minutes of basketball Monday do not offer enough input to alter the Celtics’ slavish devotion to the Numerical Data Gods (once commonly known as Nerds) who demand Boston shoot the 3 above all else.
And in this version of “Wicked Bad,” complete with Spike Lee as the Wizard, the Celtics’ Green Brick Road led to a 1-0 Knicks series lead.
Those who hold advanced degrees in mathematics and analytics, or your favorite degenerate gambler, know any piece of datum is only reliant on the trove of data that occurred previously.
Outcomes are never guaranteed.
Malcolm Butler. David Tyree. The 2004 Red Sox. Bird. Hondo. Gerald Henderson. The exceptions all too often rule.
The same data demons that vexed the Bruins in the NHL Draft lottery, or that continue to haunt Jim Montgomery following his team’s Game 7 loss to Winnipeg, showed up wearing Blue and Orange Monday.
The Blue-and-Orange-clad Florida Gators won the 2025 NCAA title. Coincidence? Omen? Ask Al Horford.
Whether it’s the outcome of a game, or the success of just one more prayer launched by Sam Hauser from City Hall Plaza, analytics (and gambling odds) are nothing more than managed risk based on past outcomes.
Shoot enough 3s, and you’ll win.
Bet the favorite enough, and you’ll cash.
But losses in the interim could leave you bankrupt.
Or cost you home-court in the second round of the playoffs.
Oddsmakers noticed. The price on the Celtics to win this series tumbled from -800 (88.9% chance) to -340 (77.3% chance) after the 108-105 OT loss.
That “opens up some value if you still believe in Boston — and I think most people do. It’s still a hefty number, but far more workable — whether you’re parlaying them with another favorite or just laying the juice,” DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello told The Herald.
Jayson Tatum missed 11 of his 15 ionospheric attempts in Game 1. He shot the ball twice in the final 10 seconds of regulation with a chance to possibly win it. His 25-foot, step-back clanged out with 9.1 seconds to play. And his 20-footer at the gun never got its wings.
Game 2 is flirting with must-win territory. Still. don’t expect too many changes in the Celtics game plan based on what was said Tuesday. More of the same. Only better. Suddenly, this is the first series of consequence between these two iconic NBA franchises since the Reagan Administration.
The Celtics won that series in seven en route to Banner 15. But, as we’ve known for a quarter-century, “Larry Bird is not walking through that door . . . Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert Parish is not walking through that door.”
The Celtics could have used McHale in the low post Monday. Never have 59 rebounds carried such insignificance.
Or how about Kristaps Porzingis? The Unicorn tapped out in the second quarter due to a possible digestive disorder. The rest of us got sick to our stomachs soon thereafter.
You can excuse Chisholm, the new owner of the Celtics, if he feels like he just spent $6.1 billion on the NBA’s equivalent of the 2008 housing market. The Celtics went belly-up in the span of about 11 minutes of playing time Monday.
The Knicks shorted the 3-point market, triple-dog daring Boston to fire away.
The Knicks big men closed out the paint as if they were guarding the Met Gala.
The Knicks earned their parade in the Canyon of Heroes by erasing a 20-point deficit and surviving a “Thank You Ghost Of Bill Russell” double-rim bounce on a missed layup by Jalen Brunson. He obscured that whiff with 11 of his 29 points over the final 5:55 of regulation.
Brunson wasn’t the only “Jalen” to bungle it with the game on the line. Jaylen Brown’s hands of stone failed him on the Celtics’ last-second, in-bounds pass in OT. Mikal Bridges swiped the ball to complete the Knicks’ heist.
We’ve learned never to bail on this team, even when it was down 3-0 to the Miami Heat.
Boston’s Game 1 loss exaggerated the teams’ faults: The Celtics play too soft for too long. They’re incapable or unwilling to make in-game adjustments.
Boston’s so-called “depth” is a mile wide but not nearly as deep.
Derrick White and Jrue Holiday were almost good enough to obscure the absence of Brown and Tatum in the game’s final 20 minutes.
The Celtics had a week’s worth of rest after their first-round exhibition against the Magic. Boston boasted an injury-free lineup at Monday’s tip. By the end of the game, Hauser and Porzingis were MIA. And it was clear Brown’s jumper lacks the “jump” due to his ailing knee.
The Celtics cannot beat the NBA’s best – and yes, the Knicks are in that conversation now – unless Jaylen Brown and/or Jayson Tatum are at their best.
Whether making 3-pointers, or defending the other team’s best player, or driving to the basket without fear, or putting in the extra effort when it appears it is not necessary, the success or failure of the Celtics over the next six weeks (hopefully) will require Tatum and/or Brown to deliver each night.
When that doesn’t happen, nothing else matters.
Whether you hit all your 3-pointers or not.
Bill Speros is a Senior Betting Analyst for bookies.com when he’s not writing here. He can be reached at bsperos1@gmail.com and posts on X @BillSperos and @RealOBF
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