There is no doubt that the current global economic crisis was triggered by a doddering old man who doesn’t understand modern markets or even basic economics. It is also clear that he is out of his depth in his current role, an enfeebled man growing weaker by the day. The question is however, whether the man in question is America’s president Donald Trump or whether it is Uncle Sam himself. Is this a case of a president who is not really all there, or a superpower that is over the hill? Or worse, is it both? As for the president, the case that he is not fit for the job is strong. Let’s just take the common warning signs for dementia and see how they fit our Dear Leader. First is memory loss. Certainly, the fact that he doesn’t seem to remember any of the economics he was taught in college or the fact that any prior massive application of tariffs in our past produced disaster is concerning. In terms of shorter term memory deficiencies, he doesn’t seem to recall that he was the one responsible for the Mexico-Canada deal he now hates, or even that he was the president the last time the stock market really cratered. Word loss is another symptom, and there’s no point in joking around here: He can barely speak coherently. Difficulty multi-tasking? Well, it’s certain he is incapable of both presidenting and playing golf at the same time (and he prefers the latter). Repetition? See trade war with China as an example. Personality changes? Off a low baseline the trend is certainly not for the better. Sleep behaviors? Middle of the night social media posts suggest those are erratic. Worsening sense of direction? Well, in a March poll, 49 percent of Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction (only 34 percent said we were going in a positive direction) and six out of ten folks think we are on the wrong track on the cost of living. And that was before this past week’s economic debacle. Speaking of which, the next sign is depression. I’m pretty sure the psychiatric community meant something different when they included this term, but hey, if the shoe fits… Confusion about time and place? For sure. He thinks he’s William McKinley. (Does he know how that story ended?) Difficulty with perceptual tasks? No kidding. He thinks he’s king, chosen by God and that everything is just swell. Financial missteps? Say no more. Changes in judgment? From bad to worse. Misplacing things? Well he certainly has misplaced his copy of the Constitution or any sense of duty that ought to go with his job. Misusing items? Does that include presidential power? Hallucinations? See all of the above or, for that matter, any recent news report out of the White House. But look, dementia aside, the dude is clearly losing it. He’s lashing out these days at perceived enemies like King Lear on the heath. And he’s displaying other signs of decline, notably the weakness of an old man. Despite holding a powerful job (and blustering like Lear did, as well) he is clearly also so unsure of himself that A) he needs someone to hold his hand while walking down steep inclines and B) he has his team both talking tough and at the same time sending signals that he’s willing to negotiate and forget the whole tariff thing. He sounds like a crazy old coot shouting at his television set, whining about taking his meds and then meekly asking to be tucked in at bedtime all at once. Donald Trump has long since passed his sell-by date and the world is paying the price. That said, during conversations this weekend with trade and foreign policy experts who were gathered at my home for a wake for the global economy, there was another theme that was weighing heavily on them. They feel that Trump’s sudden, shocking and indefensible reversal of 80 years of U.S. trade policies meant that few countries would ever trust the U.S. as a reliable partner or leader. This, in turn, echoed and thus compounded the loss of trust that came when he began his second term by turning on our allies, by turning on the international institutions we built, and by embracing some of our worst enemies. They felt this loss of trust was something that might never be fully recovered. This was true in part because as out there as Trump is, the U.S. has been worrying allies and giving hope to enemies for the past 25 years as it careened from the extreme positions of one administration to the opposite positions of the next and back. From the unilateralism of Bush to the “leading from behind” of Obama to the isolationism of Trump’s first term to the old school internationalism of Biden and then back to an even more extreme version of Trump. Further, the trust we lost was not seen by the experts with whom I spoke as some ethereal nice-to-have quality. It was seen as one of America’s superpowers. Or rather it was seen as one of the key reasons America was ever seen as a superpower. That trust allowed us to build stable alliances. It led allies to believe we would stand up for them and stand by our word if we gave it. It also led them to buy U.S. weapons systems and build inter-operable weapons programs. It made the world believe it when we signed a treaty. It made the dollar the world’s reserve currency. It made the U.S. the world’s economic leader and the top destination for foreign direct investment inflows. But all that is gone now. The allies no longer know whether they can count on us. They’re already planning to go it alone, and for a future in which they can’t count on us and must stop buying our defense products. Multiple countries are rethinking whether they can rely on the U.S. nuclear shield to protect them and thus have us on the verge of a new arms race. They have seen us attack international institutions we helped create and tear up treaties we negotiated. They now doubt whether the dollar can be the foundational currency for the world trading system and are rethinking investment into the US—even as they are reconsidering whether to travel or study here. This loss of trust has been compounded by the U.S. apparently turning its back on some of the great stabilizing virtues of our system—the rule of law, separation of powers, and veneration of the principles of democracy. (See the Supreme Court on Monday giving the administration more police state powers by enabling them to employ war time tactics for rounding up and deporting enemy aliens, despite the fact that we are not actually at war.) What is more, Trump has gone further and actually sided with autocrats, as he did on Monday in his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, during which he publicly speculated about committing the war crime of ethnic cleansing and how it might enable the U.S. colonization of Gaza. (Those weren’t his words. But that was clearly his intent.) It is an ugly time for America and in addition to needing some massive political changes, we are definitely a country that needs some industrial strength stain-on-our-reputation remover. In short, the question arose among the experts I was speaking as to whether the U.S. too had passed its sell-by date as a superpower. Given that China is not quite yet a superpower (due to its internal challenges and its inability to project military force globally) and Russia has not been one for decades, the question also arises: Are we actually entering a post-superpower era for the world? It’s a big question. What is not open to doubt however, is that we are in a heap of trouble and the world needs to buckle up and prepare for a new era of instability, in which the U.S. can no longer be counted on or seen as the leader it once was.