Evolving geopolitical tensions and potential spill over from the US tariff measures warrant vigilant supply-chain management and could temper consumer sentiment, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said on Monday. Also, challenges in securing rare-earth materials have stalled component production, further constraining supply and retail volumes, it said. “As we enter July 2025, dealer sentiment appears tilted towards slowdown — flat and de-growth expectations (42.8 per cent and 26.1 per cent) exceed growth forecasts (31.1 per cent). Similarly, booking-pipeline traction remains uneven — only 21 per cent of two-wheeler (2W), 38 per cent of passenger vehicle (PV) and 32 per cent of commercial vehicle (CV) dealers report healthy enquiry flows,” CS Vigneshwar, President, FADA, said while sharing the monthly retail sales data. In the 2W arena, early monsoon showers and renewed rural activity have spurred interest, yet heavy rainfall, variant shortages and price increases effective July are moderating conversions, he said. “PV faces high-base effects, limited new-model launches and tight financing, offset in part by festival planning and fresh incentive schemes. CV continues to grapple with muted infrastructure demand, higher ownership costs from new taxation and mandatory AC-cabin norms, even as extended order pipelines provide some relief,” Vigneshwar said. Overall, July is likely to witness mixed fortunes — driven by agrarian tailwinds and school re-openings, yet tempered by seasonal headwinds, elevated price points and liquidity constraints, he added. On monthly retail sales, the industry body shared that PV sales grew by 2.45 per cent to 2,97,722 units in June as compared with 2,90,593 units in the corresponding month last year. “Some dealers indicated that certain PV makers have introduced compulsory billing procedures such as automatic wholesale debits, to meet volume targets; inventory consequently stands at around 55 days. June thus painted a picture of modest but steadfast PV performance amid varied market cues,” Vigneshwar Similarly, 2W sales grew around 5 per cent to 14,46,387 units during the month against 13,81,040 units in June 2024. On 2W, the FADA President said that early monsoon rains and rising EV penetration also shaped buying patterns. “Several dealers cited compulsory billing and forced stock lifts — often via auto-debit wholesales — leading to mandated high days of inventory aligned with festival-season targets. Overall, June demonstrated a resilient two-wheeler performance amid mixed market signals,” he said. Three-wheeler (3W) sales grew by 6.6 per cent to 1,00,625 units in June as compared with 94,326 units in the same month last year. CV sales also grew by 6.6 per cent to 73,367 units in June as against 68,825 units in June 2024. Grand total of all vehicles across categories grew by around 5 per cent to 20,03,873 units in June as compared with 19,11,354 units in the corresponding month last year. Published on July 7, 2025