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26 Mar, 2025
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Six bits of bad news buried in small print of Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement
@Source: mirror.co.uk
Most of the bad news in Rachel Reeves' Spring Statement didn't have to be hidden in the small print. The extra cuts to disablity benefits, and the gloomy outlook for the economy may as well have been written in big letters on the front page. Against the backdrop of sluggish economic growth that she blamed on a volatile international environment but which critics say she is largely responsible for, the Chancellor unveiled measures intended to meet her self-imposed budget rules. The welfare cuts she's hoping will partly plug the hole will come at a cost - pushing as many as 250,000 people including 50,000 children into poverty. And as always, there's even more under the surface that doesn't get highlighted in the speech, or brought up in the interviews. We've trawled through hundreds of pages of documents to find all the details hidden in the small print. Here's everything you need to know. Given how buoyant Rachel Reeves was about the impact the new planning changes will have on the economy, you'd think the government was on course to hit its target of 1.5 million new homes by 2029. Sadly, no. She'd only say the changes would put the government in "touching distance" of the target - building 1.3 million new homes. The OBR forecast predicts the government will build 305,000 houses a year - a 40-year high, but not enough to actually hit their target. The OBR notes "significant uncertainty surrounds domestic and global economic developments". "If global trade disputes escalate to include 20 percentage point rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world , this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1 er cent - and reduce the current surplus in the target year to almost zero." In case you were wondering why we were playing all nice with Donald Trump Government borrowing has been revised upwards in every year of the OBR forecast. Total public sector net borrowing in 2024/25 is now forecast to be £137.3 billion, up from £127.5 billion which was forecast at the October 2024 budget. It is then forecast to be £117.7 billion in 2025/26, up from the previous forecast of £105.6 billion; £97.2 billion in 2026/27, up from £88.5 billion; £80.2 billion in 2027/28, up from £72.2 billion; and £77.4 billion in 2028/29, up from £71.9 billion. The overall tax burden in the UK is forecast to rise from the equivalent of 35.3% of GDP (gross domestic product, or the total value of the economy) in 2024/25, to a "historic high" of 37.7% in 2027/28, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This is more than four percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 33.2% in 2019/20. The peak of 37.7% is lower than previously forecast, however. At the budget in October 2024, the OBR said the tax burden was likely to climb as high as 38.3% in 2027/28. The main driver of the increase in the tax burden are personal taxes, "particularly income tax and national insurance contributions", the OBR said. Beyond 2027/28, the figure is forecast to stabilise at 37.5% in both 2028/29 and 2029/30. The OBR reckon it's a coin-toss whether the Chancellor will manage to hit her target of having the current budget in balance in 2029/30. "There is significant risk around the central forecast for the current budget," the OBR's forecast warns. "Based on stochastic simulations, the probability of meeting the fiscal mandate is 54%." An impact assesment on the benefit cuts published after the Spring Statement estimated around 250,000 people -including 50,000 children - could be pushed into poverty. It also shows around 3.2million families could be hit by the overall reforms by 2030, with an average loss of £1,720 per year. On poverty levels, the document states: "We estimate there will be an additional 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) in relative poverty after housing costs in 2029/30 as a result of modelled changes to social security, compared to the baseline projections." Under the most controversial reforms - restricting eligibility to PIP benefits - the document says 370,000 people will lose support with the average loss of £4,500-per-year. It will also impact an estimated 430,000 people in the future who will not get the PIP benefits they would have previously been entitled to.
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