Shocks and turmoil in the financial markets are not uncommon. Small retail investors are likely to start singing the blues every five to seven years when markets crash and panic sets in. In the last few weeks, the quality media have advised small investors on dealing with financial market crashes. Many understandably worry about the adverse effects on their retirement nest eggs. After years of putting aside money for the time when employment income stops and the state pension does not guarantee the income necessary to support a desired lifestyle, no one wants to see their wealth melt. Various factors cause market crashes. The 2008 financial crisis was mainly caused by lax banking regulations and the greed that this permitted in some international banks. The COVID-19 emergency was a natural health crisis that paralysed the global economy for a few years. The Ukraine crisis was a geopolitical event that exposed the weaknesses in the EU’s economic and military strategies. The latest tariff war is a man-made crisis of a US president who believes that all countries are ripping off the US and that it is time to change the global trade order radically. There is often no reliable way to predict a market crash. Market analysts have no crystal ball and even the most informed hedge their forecasts with provisos in case reality quickly proves them wrong. For instance, I know of no analyst who predicted just three months ago that the stock markets would crash like they did in the last few days, gold would hit a string of new highs and Treasury yields would climb to 4.5 per cent. Even the most pessimistic forecasts never mentioned the possibility of the US raising tariffs to the extent it did. Of course, some are now speculating about the next phase of the tariff war and how this will all end. Small investors are not expected to understand the complexities of financial market dynamics, and how they correlate with economic and political developments. Often, what politicians propose, financial markets dispose of. So, when deciding how to react to market turmoil, small investors must first determine their risk tolerance and appetite. They must also have a clear understanding of their objectives and their time frames for achieving these objectives.
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