For the first time since 2019, there have been tripartite talks on the political status of New Caledonia, during an eight-day visit by France’s Overseas Minister Manuel Valls. After six months of conflict that began on 13 May 2024, six parliamentary groups, representing both supporters and opponents of independence, have sat around the table with the French government for talks on a political statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord. However, as he flew out of New Caledonia on Saturday 2 March, Overseas Minister Valls had been unable to finalise a new agreement. Further talks will continue in late March to resolve longstanding divisions over citizenship, sovereignty and independence in the French Pacific dependency. As he left after three days of negotiations, Valls presented New Caledonian leaders with an options paper, presenting the French State’s summary of areas of convergence and disagreement, with options for the future. Valls stressed: “These are the government’s orientations. They do not amount to an agreement, and they do not commit the partners, but we have taken an important step. The French State can help, can facilitate. But it is New Caledonians who have their destiny in their own hands.” Before flying out on Saturday night, Valls was interviewed on the public broadcaster NCla1ere. Celebrating the resumption of talks after four years of political division, he said that “the mere fact that all New Caledonian political actors were around the table is a success.” He implicitly acknowledged the policy failure of French President Emmanuel Macron and preceding Overseas Ministers, who tried to drive the independence movement to the negotiating table by setting tight deadlines and threatening unilateral changes to New Caledonia’s electoral rolls (a proposal that triggered months of riots and clashes between Kanak protestors and French security forces, leaving 14 dead, hundreds injured and more that 2,600 arrested). The French State has abandoned previous plans to finish the deal by 31 March, but the talks are still governed by a deadline, with local elections for New Caledonia’s provincial assemblies and Congress scheduled for 30 November. Last week, Valls refused to set a new timeline for a final agreement but noted that time is short: “There is only one way open to us, by forging a political agreement following a path of reconciliation…. Without this, no reconstruction of New Caledonia will be possible,” President Macron and his next Prime Minister must still change the French Constitution to amend or update the Noumea Accord. This process will take months of parliamentary debate in Paris, involving the Senate, the National Assembly and a joint sitting of both houses of Parliament – so New Caledonians leaders must forge a consensus deal before Paris can start the process to change voting rights for the November polls. “We all know that there are provincial elections, that before that there must be an institutional and constitutional process,” Valls said. “But I don’t want to break the thread. Sometimes we wanted to rush things and that’s why it didn’t work.” Preliminary talks Valls’ visit to New Caledonia came after a series of bilateral discussions in Paris in early February, when the Overseas Minister met each of the six parliamentary groups that make up the Congress of New Caledonia: The Loyalists; Rassemblement-Les Républicains; Calédonie ensemble; Eveil Océanien; Union Nationale pour l’Independance (UNI); and UC-FLNKS, which links the largest independence party Union Calédonienne (UC) with other smaller members of the Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS). Under Valls’ predecessor as Overseas Minister, Gérald Darmanin, talks between supporters and opponents of independence had broken down. UC and other pro-independence groups were angered by the rorting of the third referendum on self-determination under the Noumea Accord in December 2021, followed by the appointment of Loyalist leader Sonia Backès as a junior minister in the French government in Paris. UNI members Parti de Libération Kanak (Palika) and Union progréssiste mélanésienne (UPM) joined talks with the French government and anti-independence parties in 2023 and early 2024, but UC and other FLNKS leaders boycotted these trilateral discussions. At a press conference in Paris after February’s bilateral discussions, the FLNKS delegation re-iterated longstanding calls for sovereignty and political independence. They outlined calls for imprisoned FLNKS President Christian Tein to join the talks; for bilateral talks to continue with the French State; and for the involvement of the United Nations Special Committee on Decolonisation to monitor future talks – all proposals resisted by Loyalist leaders. Last year’s clashes left the economy in ruins, with the crucial nickel industry in turmoil and thousands of unemployed. The Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies estimates that 11,600 employees in the private sector lost their jobs between 31 March and 31 December 2024. Valls pledged to extend French funding for subsidies to provide part-time work in enterprises until June. But despite French pledges of financial assistance for economic reconstruction, there is uncertainty about the fate of the current French government in Paris, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou (President Macron’s presidential coalition has not held a governing majority in the National Assembly since 2022, and there is no guarantee that Valls will still be Overseas Minister after June). As US President Donald Trump threatens NATO, Ukraine’s security and trade wars with the European Union, French leaders are refocussing attention on Europe and New Caledonia is not the primary concern for the Bayrou government. Some Loyalist leaders remain fearful of a “stab in the back”, concerned that the French State will extend the decolonisation process established by the 1998 Noumea Accord. Setting the scene As Valls prepared to fly to Noumea on 22 February, he gave a series of speeches and media interviews that were patently designed to keep the independence movement inside the tent and avoid further delays in the process. In Paris, for example, the FLNKS welcomed Valls’ statement that the 1988 Matignon- Oudinot and 1998 Noumea Accords remain the basis of negotiations – a notion challenged by anti-independence Loyalist leaders, who (wrongly) claim that three referendums on self-determination held in 2018, 2020 and 2021 have voided the Noumea Accord. Seeking to undercut fundamental elements in the Noumea Accord, and playing to the crowd, Loyalist leaders sought to whip up anger about Valls’ conciliatory statements. This included racist jokes mocking his Catalan heritage, proclaiming “No pasaran” and mispronouncing his name Manuel. At a ceremony last week to commemorate the death of a gendarme in clashes last year, Loyalist leaders Nicolas Metzdorf and Sonia Backès stood in the street arguing with Valls in front of assembled media, publicly berating the Minister for his description of indigenous Kanak as” the first people.” Metzdorf also crowed about a recent court ruling that removed the flag of Kanaky from New Caledonian driver’s licence, leaving the French bleu-blanc-rouge tricolour as the only graphic on the plastic card. This disrespect for the symbol of Kanak sovereignty angered many independence supporters, seen as a provocation just before the talks, because the flag of Kanaky has flown alongside the French flag outside public institutions since 2010. Independence supporters were also angered that French Loyalists were allowed to rally and march carrying French flags, in breach of the French High Commission’s ban on all protests, rallies, demonstrations or corteges in greater Noumea during Vall’s visit (the High Commission and police had forbidden protests by parent and teacher groups, angered by the Southern Province’s recent cuts to student subsidies that affected many Kanak children). Despite these provocations, Valls pointedly and repeatedly stressed the “united and indivisible” nature of New Caledonia, undercutting Loyalist proposals for federalism that would strengthen the powers of the three provinces against the central Government of New Caledonia. Loyalist leaders want to change the distribution of powers and finances to benefit the Southern Province, a long-time bastion of anti-independence sentiment, in contrast to the Northern and Loyalty Islands Provinces, managed by FLNKS-majority administrations since the 1980s. Many independence leaders fear that ‘federalism” is a codeword for partition, a breach of the Noumea Accord that states any referendum on self-determination “will apply comprehensively to New Caledonia as a whole. It will not be possible for one part of New Caledonia alone to achieve full sovereignty, or alone to retain different links with France.” Earlier this year, UC president Emmanuel Tjibaou said: “We fear that the vision proposed by some, who want an internal federalism, exacerbates and ends up institutionalising a territorial and ethnic divide. If it accepted such a trajectory, the French State would contribute to creating apartheid.” FLNKS leaders remain wary of the precedent where France retained colonial administration over the island of Mayotte, as the rest of the Comoros moved to independence in 1975. The attempt to partition the New Hebrides, through the French-backed revolt on Santo in the late 1980s, also rankles amongst Melanesian nations, as Papua New Guinea deployed troops to Santo to assist the transition to independence in Vanuatu. Valls talks to everyone Arriving in Noumea on 22 February, Valls made a series of symbolic visits around the islands, evoking historic conflicts but also past examples of reconciliation and agreement. He visited the tombs of four French gendarmes, two soldiers and 19 Kanak activists killed during the May 1988 crisis on the island of Iaaï (Ouvea). He then travelled to the gravesites of two historic leaders from the 1980s, FLNKS President Jean-Marie Tjibaou and Jacques Lafleur, leader of the anti-independence party RPCR. The two politicians forged an uneasy peace with a handshake that ended the four-year armed conflict between 1984-88, known as Les évènements, and lead to the 1988 Matignon-Oudinot Agreements. Meeting with secondary students in the northern town of Pouembout, Valls said: “There is a difficult history in this territory, a first people for whom I have the deepest respect and other people who arrived later. But we must work for you, the young people, to find the path of peace and living together.” In Noumea on Monday 24 February, the Overseas Minister held bilateral meetings with the six parliamentary groups and key institutional leaders, including President Alcide Ponga, ministers of the Government of New Caledonia, Congress speaker Veylma Falaeo, Noumea Mayor Sonia Lagarde and Southern Province President Sonia Backès. Then, at the end of the day, Valls held a roundtable with all parliamentary groups, seeking agreement on the way that talks could proceed on Wednesday. He proposed three core areas for discussion: “ties with France”, including divisive issues like the right to self-determination, citizenship and the electoral body; “governance”, to define or amend the powers of municipalities, provinces, Congress and Government; and creation of a “new social contract”, to address longstanding social and economic inequality. Following a meeting of its expanded political bureau on 25 February, the FLNKS confirmed it would participate in the next three days of talks. The FLNKS negotiating team “confirms its presence at the next meetings in order to deepen the discussion”, but flagged a number of contentious issues, including “the status of political prisoners, the supervisory role for the United Nations and the recurrent discrimination against our populations.” Over three days, the initial round of talks proceeded smoothly for the first time in years. As they left the sessions, leaders remained tight-lipped about the substance, but told journalists there was an “open”, “firm but polite” and “constructive” exchange of perspectives. After the talks, UC president Emmanuel Tjibaou noted: “Our presence was welcomed. We were able to have serene, constructive exchanges.” Before the talks, reaffirming his party’s call for ‘independence in partnership’ with France, Palika spokesperson Jean-Pierre Djaïwé had argued: “We have to find a way between those who want the option of independence and those who want the option of remaining in the Republic” Djaïwé suggested that the views of the Loyalists and UC-FLNKS are “diametrically opposed”, which doesn’t bode well for a quick agreement, despite the success of the first round of negotiations. Alongside UNI, the anti-independence party Calédonie ensemble also sought to avoid a fracture of dialogue. Party leader Philippe Gomès said: “We must meet the expectations of the independence movement but also give opponents of independence some elements that guarantee them the protection of France.” But the issue of sovereignty and independence cannot be avoided. UPM president Victor Tutugoro said: “Regarding the link with France, it’s necessarily complicated. We all agree on a certain number of transitions, but we remain supporters of independence, and they remain opposed.” Options paper As the Overseas Minister released an 11-page summary of last week’s talks, the French government has proposed a range of options for each area: self-determination and ties with France; New Caledonian citizenship and the electoral rolls; and the division of powers between different levels of government. The paper suggests that “three questions essential to the formation of a political compromise were at the heart of the discussions: 1) The link with France and self-determination; 2) New Caledonian citizenship and the electoral rolls; 3) New Caledonian governance and institutions, with a particular focus on the role of the provinces.” It notes however that “everyone was fully aware that they were inseparable, based on the reading of the situation in New Caledonia with a view to an equally comprehensive agreement. Such an agreement will have to be based on rapprochement and therefore concessions granted by all the parties to the other partners, in the interest of New Caledonians.” The issues paper suggests there are a number of areas for extending or transferring powers between communes (municipalities), provinces and the national Government of New Caledonia. Valls met with a delegation of mayors last Wednesday, who called for greater powers to be allocated to local government (which currently comes under the authority of Paris rather than Noumea). After the meeting Pascal Vittori, the mayor of Boulouparis, told journalists that “Manuel Valls assured us that amongst the powers listed in any future agreement, those of the municipalities would be taken into account. This has never been doneuntil now.” There’s a long way still to go to gain those concessions, so the next round of talks – scheduled for late March – will require a measure of compromise. But despite the success of last week’s initial talks, there are fundamental divisions over sovereignty and France’s colonial administration that will be hard to reconcile. Given the violent conflict that wracked New Caledonia for nearly six months last year, there remain significant differences between supporters and opponents of independence that may undercut a quick agreement – even as many New Caledonians want a return to stability.