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02 Apr, 2025
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Susan Crawford's Chances of Winning Wisconsin Supreme Court: Betting Odds
@Source: newsweek.com
Bettings odds point to liberal Judge Susan Crawford as the favorite over conservative Judge Brad Schimel just hours before polls close in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race.Newsweek reached out to each campaign for comment via email on Tuesday.Why It MattersThe election will determine the ideological balance of Wisconsin's highest court ahead of potential rulings on hot-button issues like reproductive rights, voting regulation and redistricting. A Crawford victory would allow the liberal-leaning justices to retain their majority until at least 2028, but a Schimel win would hand conservative justices a majority.The election is viewed as a gauge of how voters in the critical swing state are feeling about President Donald Trump about two months into his new administration, as well as Elon Musk, who has endorsed and donated to Schimel.What To KnowCrawford, who has led in polls of the race, is favored to win the election, according to Polymarket—a U.S. cryptocurrency-based prediction market—which correctly predicted Trump's victory in the November presidential election.Crawford serves on the Dane County Circuit Court, while Schimel, the state's former attorney general, serves on the Waukesha Circuit Court.As of 3:20 p.m. ET, Crawford had an 87 percent chance of victory, according to the betting odds. She has always been viewed as the likely victor among Polymarket traders. Her chances of winning have hovered around the 80 percent mark since March 17.Polymarket traders, however, were more split on her margin of victory. The leading bet, with a 20 percent likelihood, is that she will pull off a narrow win, within 2 percentage points. Traders give the likelihood of a 2- to 4-point victory a 14 percent chance, and a 4- to 6-point victory a 17 percent chance.Polymarket says there is a 19 percent chance Crawford scores a 6- to 8-point victory, and an 18 percent chance she pulls off an 8- to 10-point win. A victory of 10 or more points has a 17 percent chance of happening.An AtlasIntel poll conducted from March 27 to March 31 among 542 respondents gave Crawford a 7-point lead of 53 percent, compared to 46 percent for her Trump-backed opponent Schimel. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.According to the Wisconsin Elections Commission on Monday, early voting was 57 percent higher than in the last Supreme Court election in 2023.What People Are SayingTrump, on Truth Social: "For State Supreme Court, make sure to Vote for America First Patriot, Brad Schimel, against Susan Crawford, a Radical Left Liberal, with a History of letting child molesters and rapists off easy. She will be one of the most Liberal Judges ever elected, which would be a DISASTER for Wisconsin and, the United States of America."Crawford told supporters at a rally in Madison on Monday: "This election is going to determine all of our fundamental rights and freedoms."What Happens NextPolls close at 8 p.m. CT, and results are expected to come in shortly after.
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