By Carolyn Bick NORTHWEST ASIAN WEEKLY The biggest issue Uwajimaya’s president and CEO Denise Moriguchi has to deal with right now is uncertainty. “It’s one thing if it was like, ‘Okay, this is what it was going to be, and here’s the framework we have to think and plan within and we know it’s gonna that’s what it’s gonna be,’” Moriguchi said. “But right now, it’s so hard to plan and really know what to do when it seems to change every day.” Moriguchi is speaking about the international tariffs President Donald Trump has imposed on foreign imports. Uwajimaya is a nearly 100-year-old family-run Japanese store with four locations that offers a variety of Asian food and goods. The company also acts as a supplier to several small restaurant businesses in the area. Since his initial baseline tariffs in February, Trump has set increasingly steep “reciprocal” tariffs for goods imported from other countries. These tariffs are so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, because they are in response to other countries imposing tariffs of their own on U.S. goods—but these countries are only imposing tariffs, because Trump did it, first. As the Trump-initiated tariff hikes have progressed, it’s become increasingly clear that Trump’s main target is China. While he paused import tariffs on goods from other countries for 90 days on April 9, he ramped up the tariffs on Chinese-made goods to 145%. In response, China has increased its tariffs on U.S.-made goods to 125%, stoking fears of a global economic recession for a world just barely limping out of the economic impacts of COVID-19, as the trade war between two major global economic powers daring each other to blink first escalates. In other words, it’s a classic trade war. And yet, it’s neither the leaders the U.S. nor China who will have to pay for or feel the stress of this (best displayed, perhaps, by the fact that, as the markets careened downward in early April, Trump could be found golfing at his high-end, private Florida club, Mar-a-Lago). Instead, it’s the everyday residents and small-to-midsize businesses of both countries that will feel the effects, particularly in China. The stock market has already tumbled, heading into bear market territory. Confidence in the U.S. economy has sharply dropped, as evidenced by the mass sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds—an unusual and concerning move, given that U.S. bonds are usually considered safe havens in times of market volatility and economic uncertainty. So far, Moriguchi has not seen any specific, dramatic increases, but acknowledged that not only is it still early days, she and her team are still not even sure how this will all play out. All they can do, she said, is construct potential scenarios, and plan for each of them. This includes mapping out potential customer behavior, as well as trying to predict what the effects on the supply chain will be. Moriguchi said that the company has also had to push back on distributors who want to hike prices for items, despite the prices of those goods not yet having increased or the U.S. having even settled on a tariff level. “We don’t want to just start paying higher prices now, when we don’t even know exactly what they’re going to be,” she explained. “We don’t want to rush to put price increases. And we want to figure out how we can mitigate impacts to customers, how we can secure our supply chain. So there’s a lot of things that we don’t want to jump into action.” Moriguchi said that Uwajimaya would do its best not to raise prices for customers, but that she would not expect large corporations to do the same. She also said that she worries for smaller, mom-and-pop businesses that don’t necessarily have the capital to weather the financial storm. Jeff Liang, the recent interim executive director of the Chinatown-International District Business Improvement Association (CIDBIA) said that the uncertainty of the tariffs were already impacting small businesses, like the ones Moriguchi described. He said that the CIDBIA is helping local businesses track changes and prepare for price increases and uncertainty by way of a checklist. But, Liang said, this extra responsibility falls on the shoulders of those who don’t really have any latitude to take on more stress. “This is especially difficult for small businesses in the Chinatown-International District (CID), who are already working hard to reduce costs while dealing with tight or shrinking profit margins—the small amount of money a business keeps after paying for everything it takes to run,” Liang said. “We encourage our businesses to start monitoring potential changes now.” Liang sent the Northwest Asian Weekly its tariff preparedness list, which is included at the end of this article. Beyond that, he said, the CIDBIA is part of the CID Small Business Relief Team, along with SCIDpda and Friends of Little Sài Gòn. The relief team helps small businesses with various things, Liang said, like lease negotiations, storefront repairs, and grant applications “We also try to be intentional about how we engage business owners—many are small family-run shops and can’t afford to take much time away from their day-to-day operations,” Liang said. “So rather than asking them to attend too many programs or sessions, we try to bring information and help directly to them.” “That said,” he continued, “we do have the capacity to organize targeted training if the need arises—for example, we recently held two training sessions for business owners and their staff on how to prepare for potential ICE visits or raids.” On April 10, the Washington State Department of Commerce stepped in with a broader solution for small and midsize businesses across the state, launching a new Tariff Information and Resource Guide to help companies understand the impacts of federal tariffs and access critical support. The move comes at a time when local and regional trade experts are sounding the alarm about just how much Washington depends on global trade—and how hard these tariffs could hit. Kate Nolan, communications and outreach manager for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) said, “All of our major trading partners are in Asia. Over 90% of our trade is with Asian countries.” Nolan provided a breakdown showing China is Washington’s top trading partner, sending over 677,000 shipping containers to the state annually—far more than any other country. That makes the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods especially painful for Washington businesses. The NWSA said it is particularly concerned about tariffs on automobiles, because automobile imports are a significant, growing line of business for Washington’s gateway. “We expect these tariffs to have a chilling effect on auto volumes imported through Seattle and Tacoma, though much is unknown about how significant or quickly impacts to imported cargo volumes will be felt across the supply chain,” the NWSA said. “The NWSA remains in close coordination with our customers to help navigate and hopefully minimize negative effects on jobs, businesses and U.S. consumers who depend on a reliable auto supply chain.” Chiling Tong is the president and CEO of National ACE, an organization designed to help AAPI business owners and entrepreneurs navigate and remove barriers in the American business landscape. Tong said the tariffs and higher costs can particularly affect entrepreneurs who depend on affordable imports. “Entrepreneurs, especially those in industries like retail, food, and manufacturing, may face challenges from these cost increases as they impact their supply chains,” Tong said. “Tariff increases on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China—particularly in industries like steel, aluminum, auto parts, and energy—would cost small businesses $47 billion in Texas, $33 billion in California, and $28 billion in Michigan.” All of these states have significant AAPI populations, she said. CIDBIA Tariff Preparedness Checklist for CID Small Businesses Check your inventory Think about what you buy to run your business—ingredients, supplies, or products you sell. – Do any come from outside the U.S., like from China, Canada, or Mexico? – Ask your supplier if those items might be affected by tariffs. Talk to your vendors/suppliers Ask your regular suppliers: – Will prices go up? – Are they expecting delays or shortages? Write down what they say, or keep copies of quotes and invoices. Shop around Now’s a good time to compare prices and options. – Ask other business owners where they’re getting their supplies. – Look for local alternatives or different suppliers who may not be affected by the tariffs. Look at your prices -If your costs go up, will you need to raise your prices? -Start thinking about how you might adjust your menu, services, or product prices to stay sustainable. Keep your customers in the loop -If prices or products need to change, let customers know kindly and honestly. Example: “We’re making small changes due to rising import costs. Thank you for understanding and supporting local businesses like ours!” Track changes simply Start a small notebook, spreadsheet, or phone note to keep track of: – Price increases – Shipping delays – Out-of-stock items – Changes you’ve had to make in response