There are rarely such things as quiet weekends in Welsh rugby. Yet, even by the usual standards, the final one of the regular 2024/25 campaign was a particularly grim affair. With the four professional clubs out in South Africa, and the Scarlets even securing their place in the United Rugby Championship play-offs, things back home were far from idyllic. Given the fact that the Welsh Rugby Union's deadline to sign the new Professional Rugby Agreement had been and gone, with the Ospreys and Scarlets refusing to sign, it was perhaps unsurprising that things were about to come to a head. And yet, in the mad world of Welsh rugby, the news broken by WalesOnline on Saturday night that going down to three professional clubs is currently understood to be the expected outcome, came as a shock. "We're a laughing stock in world rugby," remarked one source following the news. The WRU has since confirmed the two-year notice period has been issued to terminate the current PRA in order to proceed with its debt refinancing. In a statement on Sunday morning, the governing body confirmed that the days of four evenly funded clubs are over. In response, the two regions who have held out on signing released their own statement, accusing the WRU of performing a "U-turn". Quite clearly, after a dramatic 48 hours, any sort of peaceful resolution now seems unlikely as Welsh rugby finds itself in a deeply unsettling position. Uncertainty reigns, with players and staff arriving back to Wales in the last 24 hours desperate to find out exactly how the game in this country has once again grabbed all the headlines for the wrong reasons. Just days ago, a deadline was set for the Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets to sign the new PRA, joining the now WRU-owned Cardiff on the new agreement. That would have seen them agree to the new model as four equally funded teams. Yet, now the deadline has passed with only two sides signing, the WRU are moving away from that model - with the four clubs informed last Thursday. At best, that looks like four teams working on different budgets. The worst case scenario is going down to three teams. So how, on the face of it, could a deal that was fine to be signed off just over a week ago with four teams now no longer be viable? In truth, the likelihood is that, even if four teams had signed up last week, the finances involved in increasing Welsh rugby's funding in the coming years would have been a struggle. It isn't as if the finances have suddenly deteriorated in a matter of days. There have been long been concerns over Wales' ability to maintain four professional clubs - both financially and from a playing personnel point of view. There are "challenges facing rugby in Wales and globally", as the WRU refer to in their statement. The flailing results of the national team, having lost 17 Tests in a row, will have affected expected income. TV and media rights are down in terms of what broadcast deals bring in, while the WRU's hopes for an Anglo-Welsh league have come and gone. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby. The WRU's viewpoint would be that, when talks first began last year over the new agreement, it would have worked hard to make it financially viable for four teams ahead of next year, with the plan to increase funding over the next five years. The Union will believe the constant delays in getting a deal across the line, as well as the current economic headwinds, have just made life too difficult to carry on the same path. It's understood that, at the start of the plan, the required amount of money from the Regional Principle Investor was around £22m across the four teams over five years to make it work. That financial liability required from the clubs' benefactors is now believed to be around £41m. That tells a stark story of where Welsh rugby's finances are. Where the west Wales clubs will take issue is the Cardiff situation. All four clubs were ready to sign the deal earlier in the year, with an agreement in principle announced in February. All parties were then ready to sign at the beginning of April. However, then Cardiff went into administration - with the WRU taking ownership of the Arms Park club. That has proven to be contentious, with the three independent clubs having opted not to sign until fears over the WRU turning Cardiff into a super club were allayed. The Dragons - having been previously under Union ownership - duly signed, but the west Wales clubs have remained robust in their decision not to. The WRU has now said enough is enough. The offer is off the table and they have walked away from it. Essentially, the WRU believe that the Ospreys and Scarlets' wishes for a side letter to the new PRA - which would ensure any money spent on Cardiff was also spent on the other three clubs - isn't realistic. As for the west Wales sides, there's likely to be some discontent over how long the WRU's takeover of Cardiff had been in the works - given the perception seems to be that it's the capital club's off-field issues that have set the cat amongst the pigeons. In the end, it's not about what's changed in a week, but rather what has bubbled under the surface for some time, leading to the quite public change of stance from the WRU. Having been so strong on wanting four equally funded teams in Wales, that is now no longer the case. Recent months had seen talk of a better working relationship between the WRU and clubs. That also appears to be over now. First things first, there is set to be another meeting this week between the WRU's executive and the four clubs - with a Professional Rugby Board meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Quite how that will go is anyone's guess. The west Wales clubs will continue to seek clarity, but what cards they truly hold is debatable. As things stand, the WRU Board have taken the opportunity for the Ospreys and Scarlets to sign the new PRA off the table. There is currently no way back to the deal that has been months in the making. Insisting they are willing to sign once adequate clarity is offered up on Cardiff, there's still the chance the west Wales clubs could try to agree to the new PRA. That would require the WRU Board to reconsider its position and that seems very unlikely now the pin has been pulled on the grenade. As such, the teams will head into next season unequally funded. Cardiff and Dragons will be working on budgets of around £6.5m for next season. Roughly £5.1m will be for playing wages, with around £600,000 for further funding and then £800,000 to clear existing debt. It's unclear what the Ospreys and Scarlets will have in terms of a playing budget, but that extra money the new PRA offered to clear debt will not be available on the old PRA. How long those clubs could actually survive on limited funding with the threat of being axed potentially hanging over them is debatable, with the whole point of striking a new deal designed to solve the game's deep financial issues Beyond that, it's hard to know what happens next. Insistent no decisive call has yet been made, the WRU hope to reach a decision by September - whether that means four teams on different funding or a reduction in clubs. There are financial implications to consider when cutting a team, with the WRU having previously stated that they would be penalised financially by the URC and European authorities were they not able to provide four teams. It's also understood that, were the WRU to decide a 2+2 or 3+1 model where some clubs were given more financial backing than others was the way forward, the two clubs currently on the outside wouldn't necessarily be the ones disadvantaged. Were three clubs the final outcome, which seems most likely as things stand, it once again creates the possibility of a merger in Welsh rugby. In the past, the Scarlets and Ospreys came close to merging, while there has also been similar talk about Cardiff and the Ospreys. If the WRU confirm three teams is the chosen way forward, but none of the clubs agree to merge, the Union would then put the licences to compete under in the URC and European competitions out to tender. A decision would then be based on things like stadium, facilities, investors and players produced for Wales, among other things. The one last thing to consider is the prospect of legal action from clubs over the WRU's actions, although that will be an expensive last resort.