TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — This year’s most significant Republican contender in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race may be a part-time resident of Bedminster who has enhanced his reputation along the Atlantic City Boardwalk. “Donald Trump is the X factor in this GOP primary,” stated Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship. “His endorsement at this point could either make or break the candidates, depending on who he chooses to support.” However, in a state historically favoring Democrats, Trump’s endorsement in the June 10 primary could complicate the general election strategy, where the victor from a six-person Democratic field is waiting. This backdrop likely explains why one Republican candidate, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, has openly criticized Trump for his pardons related to individuals involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, while two other prominent candidates have sought Trump’s backing more discreetly. In one of only two states holding a gubernatorial election this year—Virginia being the other—close observation of the general election will offer insights into whether blue state voters have been swayed or turned off by Trump’s style of leadership. Trump, known for his Atlantic City casino ventures and ongoing ownership of properties in New Jersey, including the Bedminster golf club, saw his support narrow between 2020 and 2024 but still faced defeat in the state, where Democrats hold a firm majority. Some Republicans believe this landscape might be shifting. The GOP field has decreased from five candidates to four following the recent exit of Ed Durr, a former state senator and ardent Trump supporter, who withdrew. Durr gained national attention in 2021 for his unexpected defeat of Democratic state Senate President Steve Sweeney in their southern New Jersey district. A furniture truck driver previously unaccustomed to elected office, Durr expressed his decision to end his campaign to allow radio host and fellow Trump ally Bill Spadea an opportunity to challenge the “never Trumpers” in the race. Both Spadea and Jack Ciattarelli, the GOP’s 2021 gubernatorial nominee who lost to term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy by roughly three points, have previously made critical remarks about Trump but have recently embraced his influence. Ciattarelli met with the former president last week, and Chris Russell, his campaign strategist, declined to provide details but indicated Ciattarelli welcomes Trump’s support if he chooses to offer it. A request for comment from Spadea’s campaign has been made. Mario Kranjac, a former two-term mayor from the suburban New York City area of Englewood Cliffs and a newcomer to the race, claims to be the candidate most aligned with Trump, having consistently supported him throughout the president’s first term. “The residents, citizens, and taxpayers of New Jersey need a governor with steadfast values and beliefs, and that’s me—reflecting everything President Trump stands for,” he stated in a phone interview. “They shouldn’t worry that their candidate might abandon Trump during tough times, which I would never do.” One of the hurdles for Republicans is that the significance of Trump’s backing is unpredictable. The initial two months of his second presidential term may have alienated some voters while drawing others in. Estimating how much Trump’s support may influence the campaign when voters head to the polls for the primary remains uncertain, with the situation evolving daily. Historically, some Republicans have successfully navigated the divide between primary and general elections. While Republicans haven’t secured a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey for over five decades, they have achieved greater success in gubernatorial races. The last three Republicans elected as governor—Thomas Kean Sr., Christine Todd Whitman, and Chris Christie—each won two consecutive terms, employing a business-friendly conservative approach markedly different from Trump’s assertive populism. Democrats are still the dominant party in the state; however, some Republicans argue that their grip is loosening. Russell, Ciattarelli’s strategist, notes the GOP’s registration gains, reducing the Democrats’ advantage from 1 million voters to 834,000. He warns that Democrats should not be too confident in their usual political advantages. “I think they’re overlooking the lesson of the 2024 election in New Jersey, which is that Donald Trump performed very well here,” he asserted. The significance of Trump’s influence continues to resonate, as reflected in Durr’s recent exit from the race. In his announcement, Durr mentioned he was terminating his campaign to benefit Spadea. Shortly thereafter, he clarified that his statement was not an endorsement. Steve Kush, a spokesperson for Durr, explained this nuance, highlighting Trump’s ongoing dominance in the primary. “He doesn’t want to use the term endorse because he doesn’t want to get ahead of President Trump,” Kush stated.