US President Donald Trump on Thursday (May 8) unveiled a preliminary trade agreement with the United Kingdom framed as a historic breakthrough.Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “The final details are being written up,” as he praised the deal for boosting American ethanol and beef exports while retaining a baseline 10 per cent tariff on most UK imports. British officials confirmed that steel and aluminum duties would be lifted, while tariffs on automobiles would drop to 10 per cent for up to 100,000 vehicles annually.The deal gave nations all across the world, including Canada, insight related to the objectives of his campaign to use tariffs to disrupt international trade. Trump began his global trade war with reciprocal tariffs in April, but a few hours later, he withdrew the most damaging ones. Trump maintained his 10 per cent global tariff while claiming that the 90-day break would allow nations to negotiate a deal. “This was very serious. It would have meant people would have lost their jobs without this breakthrough,” said UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called the agreement “hugely important,” citing $5 billion in new American export opportunities.For Canadian officials watching closely, the deal offers both a model and a warning. Canada was hit with sweeping tariffs in March, including those on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, with Trump citing the opioid crisis and fentanyl flows from the north as justification. Some of these were rolled back for CUSMA-compliant goods, but key sectors remain vulnerable.Through this deal, the implications for Canada's tightly integrated auto industry are stark. “Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little US content than a CUSMA-compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts,” said Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council.In Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent Oval Office visit with Trump marked a potential turning point. Trump called CUSMA “still very effective” and praised Carney as “very talented.” The two leaders appeared cordial, a stark shift from Trump’s past jabs at former PM Justin Trudeau. Carney, elected on a platform centered on economic stability and rebuilding investor confidence, made trade a priority after a campaign in which the economy was the defining issue. His visit to Washington was widely seen as an effort to smooth tensions and signal a more cooperative approach.But seeing Trump’s track record, Canada should expect hard bargaining. “It shows that the Trump administration is amenable to negotiation,” said Carleton University’s Fen Osler Hampson. “The reality is, we are entering an era of managed trade.” The UK trade agreement suggests some kind of US tariff on Canadian goods could remain in place, even if trade talks between Ottawa and Washington largely succeed, Hampson said, “If CUSMA stays in place, not only can we live with Trump’s tariffs, if they are lower we may actually benefit vis-a-vis other countries who sell in the US market.”The UK deal also showed how political style may matter. Christopher Sands, director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University, said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s “persistence and friendly professionalism” proved effective with Trump.While Trump appears open to deals, his motivations remain transactional. “He doesn’t believe in trade deficits,” said Henry Olsen, a senior official at the Public Policy Center.Olsen also noted that although Trump exaggerates the US trade deficit with Canada, largely due to energy imports, he will expect any future agreement to reduce it. “That will be extremely difficult for Prime Minister Carney to do.”