A visit to India by US Vice-President J.D. Vance this week has raised hopes in New Delhi of progress towards a long-awaited trade agreement that could help avert looming American import tariffs. Although Vance’s four-day trip is officially personal – he arrived in Delhi on Monday with his Indian-origin wife Usha and their three children – he is scheduled to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval during his stay. Harsh Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London, said Vance’s emergence as the most visible face of US foreign policy under President Donald Trump made the visit particularly important, adding that India was likely to use the opportunity to signal it was “serious in progressing towards a trade deal with the US”. A trade deal between India and the United States could significantly enhance economic ties between the two countries and potentially strengthen diplomatic ties. The US is India’s largest trading partner and their two-way bilateral trade reached US$129 billion in 2024, with a US$45.7 billion surplus in favour of India, US government trade data show, according to a Reuters report on Monday. In early April, the US imposed a 26 per cent tariff on Indian imports, part of a broader strategy targeting countries with significant trade surpluses with the US. However, Trump later announced a 90-day suspension of these additional tariffs for most countries, including India, reducing the rate to a baseline 10 per cent until July 9. India, as well as other affected countries such as Japan and Vietnam, is hoping to negotiate lower levies from the US before the higher tariffs take effect. Vance is likely to discuss not only trade issues but also deepening security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said a gamut of bilateral issues was likely to be discussed. The ministry had earlier issued a statement saying Vance’s visit “will provide an opportunity for both sides to review the progress in bilateral relations [and] exchange views on regional and global developments of mutual interest”. Indian and US trade representatives have been thrashing out a bilateral agreement since Modi visited Washington in February and pledged in a joint declaration with Trump to expand two-way trade fourfold to US$500 billion by 2030. Since then, a series of high-level visits have followed between the two countries. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal visited the US in March, which was followed by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s trip to India. Vance’s India visit comes in the same week as Indian trade representatives are due to head to the US to explore an “early tranche” of a bilateral agreement that covers a limited set of issues, according to reports in the local media. “There are certain low-hanging fruits that can be explored. Even the US tariffs that have been levied can be revised, but much would depend on what kind of agreement they come to and how India can sell itself as an attractive destination,” Pant said. “India will also have to engage in certain reforms.” According to Pant, India has generally been cautious about speeding through trade deals with other countries, but Delhi is likely to be conscious about the looming US tariffs that could affect exports from the country. India’s biggest export goods to the US include gems and jewellery, textiles and automobile parts. The US has been pushing for lower Indian import tariffs on products such as whiskey, automobiles and farm products. India is open to cutting tariffs on more than half of US imports in the first phase of a trade deal the two nations are negotiating, according to reports. At the same time, the Indian government is unlikely to lower tariffs on certain sensitive sectors such as agricultural goods because it could lead to a farmers’ backlash. The All India Kisan Sabha, India’s biggest and oldest farmers’ union, has launched protests to oppose any trade deal that could hit farm incomes. Indian opposition politicians have also flagged concerns about visa issues for Indian students and technology professionals who are keen to visit the US under Trump’s administration. Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political commentator, said it was tough to predict what would come out of the trade talks between India and the US. “India has laid out a red carpet for Vance and conversations have centred around how he has an Indian-origin wife. But there is worry about whether US tariffs will hit the pocket [of Indians],” he said. The Indian side would have to be careful not to concede too much ground during trade negotiations, Mukhopadhyay said, adding: “We will have to play it by ear.” According to Mukhopadhyay, if no announcement is made during Vance’s visit this week and pushed back to a later date, then it will be an indication that the trade negotiations are likely to take time. Experts say that the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement is likely to be announced in or before September, when Trump may attend a meeting of the Quad – a grouping of the US, India, Australia and Japan – to be held in Delhi.