The Irish Examiner spoke with tourism officials, industry leaders, major tourist sites, and local businesses to see what’s happening on the ground, and what the forecast is for the months ahead. CSO data disputed Tourism is the largest indigenous industry and biggest regional employer in the country. In March, the CSO published data showing that only 338,900 foreign visitors made a trip to Ireland in January 2025, a fall of 25% compared with January 2024. CSO figures for February found that there were only 304,300 foreign visitors to Ireland, a 30% drop compared with February 2024. In financial terms, the data showed that the January visitors spent €214m on the trip, down 27.9% compared with January 2024, and February’s visitors spent €196m, down 31% compared with February 2024. Also down were the lengths of stay in Ireland by visitors in both months and in January for example, more of the visitors stayed in their own property or with family or friends (58.1%) than in any other accommodation type. Some industry officials challenged the data, describing it as “at odds” with their own feedback from the sector. However, the CSO explained how their methodology for gathering the data is independently reviewed and how it is collected each month at the country’s international ports and airports by a team of CSO tourist enumerator staff. Visitors to Ireland are surveyed at departure: In February, just over 13,000 people were surveyed — a figure in line with previous months. Furthermore, the information gathered is “calibrated” against passenger flow data provided by the ports and airports and the methodology itself was “created in collaboration with industry stakeholders”, and underwent review in 2024. A CSO spokesperson told the Irish Examiner they welcomed “recent industry engagement” following the release of the data, and that they were confident in their figures. “The CSO is confident the trends reported in the Inbound Tourism series reflect real trends in overseas visitor numbers,” they said. “It is worth noting that February is historically one of the least important months for overseas visitors, accounting for just 5.4% of all foreign visitors in 2023 and 6.6% in 2024.” While several industry leaders told the Irish Examiner that January and February are low months for the sector — accounting for less than 10% of total overseas visitor spend for the year, according to Tourism Ireland — the CSO also tempered their data with the fact that February 2025 had one day less than February 2024, as it was a leap year. The CSO also stated that “January and February 2024 had a higher than usual rate of tourist numbers which means the falls noted in 2025 are against this relatively high base.” Even with all that aside, several big stakeholders acknowledged challenges ahead in Irish tourism. Tourism Ireland noted that 2024 was a very strong year here, with overseas visitors spending more than €6bn, up +11% compared to 2023, but it also noted future challenges. “Certainly, there are headwinds to be aware of for tourism,” said a Tourism Ireland spokesperson. “The passenger cap at Dublin Airport reduced air access to the island of Ireland from key inbound visitor markets, such as Great Britain and the United States this winter [up to the end of March]; it’s now on hold, under legal review.” The passenger cap means that no more than 32m people can pass through at Dublin Airport in one year, a planning ruling in place since 2007. However, the Tourism Ireland spokesperson cited global conditions as another factor. “With macro-economic uncertainty in the world at the moment, that can feed into consumers becoming more cautious, including when it comes to travel,” they added. Tourism Ireland upbeat Tourism Ireland is focused on supporting the industry through the global marketing of Ireland where they will be “creating 1.6m ‘opportunities to see’” the country via media and social media content, as well as promoting Ireland to air and sea carriers. The agency also said that visitors to Ireland, based on seats booked on planes, is “positive” for the months ahead. “The air access situation for summer 2025 is positive, with scheduled seat capacity to the island of Ireland at 104% of last summer’s capacity; and from North America, a key inbound market, at 110%,” the spokesperson said. Department data predicts growth The Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, which now has responsibility for tourism, said it noted the CSO figures, but added that sentiment from the industry was more “positive”. “Sentiment from the tourism sector itself is far more positive, with research showing that 39% of businesses anticipate an increase in visitor levels this year, while 47% expect growth in overseas visitors,” a spokesperson told the Irish Examiner. RAI: Decrease may not be so severe The Restaurants Association of Ireland, which has more than 3,000 members nationwide from coffee shops to restaurants and hotel restaurants to gastropubs, stated it was “concerned” by the CSO figures, as they too have noted a “decline”, especially in international tour bookings. “The Restaurants Association of Ireland [RAI] is concerned by the reported decline in foreign visitor numbers, as outlined by the CSO,” a spokesperson said. “A drop in tourism has real and immediate consequences for hospitality businesses across the country. “However, based on our own data and feedback from members, the decrease may not be as sharp as the CSO figures suggest. International tour bookings are indeed down, and overall revenue has dipped, but the scale of decline reported by our members is generally more moderate. Many restaurants are reporting a 5%–7% decrease in covers compared to the same period last year.” The spokesperson said domestic bookings for the summer ahead were generally on a par with last year’s, though they vary by region and restaurant type, but that “international group bookings remain down, contributing to a broader sense of uncertainty across the sector”. Separate from their own data around bookings, the RAI said it was “frustrating” that the concerns the organisation raised about such a decline were not adequately engaged with. “What is particularly frustrating is that early warnings raised by the RAI about the likelihood of a subdued season were not taken seriously. Some tourism officials pushed back on what our members were clearly experiencing on the ground,” an RAI spokesperson said. “Accurate data and honest, open dialogue are essential if we are to put the right supports in place for the sector ahead of the critical summer period. “Should the March visitor numbers continue the downward trend, the industry could be facing a serious challenge that demands urgent attention.” Irish Hotels Federation: Outlook still positive Another group with access to on-the-ground information is the Irish Hotels Federation. They told the Irish Examiner that their data from hotels throughout the country show business in the first part of 2025 more-or-less held its own when compared with 2024. Irish Hotels Federation president Michael Magner said: “While the CSO figures would, on the face of it, be a cause of concern, the data we have from the industry — including from hotels throughout the country — indicates that overall business volumes and room occupancy levels have broadly held up in Q1 compared with 2024. “Hotels on the ground are also reporting that forward bookings for the summer are at levels similar to last year, so the outlook remains positive,” he said. Like many others in the industry, Mr Magner did point towards global economic uncertainty when it comes to foreign visitors choosing to holiday. “We are, however, concerned about the potential negative impact of global political and economic uncertainty, which we continue to monitor closely. “This is the broader context of a very high cost base within the Irish economy, falling consumer sentiment, and financial pressures in key source markets,” Mr Magner said. And, similarly to the Restaurants Association of Ireland, Mr Magner referenced the need to reduce Vat on hospitality food services, especially when tourism and hospitality supports 270,000 livelihoods in Ireland. Cautious optimism at ITIC Meanwhile, the representative group for tourism business interests in Ireland noted that data showed the “start of the year has been flat or marginally down, but nothing of the severity of the drop that the CSO survey suggests”. Irish Tourism Industry Confederation chief Eoghan O’Mara Walsh said “the sharp drop in CSO numbers have surprised industry leaders as they don’t align with airline, airport, hotel or attraction data that we have”. “January and February are relatively quiet tourism months and we are talking to the CSO to discover more about their sample size and methodology as data and statistics are important to get right for the tourism sector,” he added. Mr O’Mara Walsh said the tourism confederation is “cautiously optimistic about the summer season ahead” citing excellent transatlantic air access. However, he cited key things that need to be looked at to weather any challenges ahead. These include diversifying our “portfolio of source markets” and welcoming the fact that Tourism Ireland is undertaking a strategic review of European markets as “there is a lot more business from France and Germany that we could win”. Dublin Airport passenger cap He also said lifting the passenger cap at Dublin Airport will be important, as well as reducing the hospitality Vat rate back to 9% from the current 13.5%, as was strongly echoed by the RAI in their feedback to the Irish Examiner. The passenger cap limit of 32m people allowed to fly into Dublin Airport annually is in place due to a planning ruling by Fingal County Council in 2007, when Terminal 2 was being built and there were concerns around the capacity of surrounding roads. Barriers were still in place on the newly-built M50 and the Port Tunnel had just been opened. The Department of Transport told the Irish Examiner that the Dublin Airport Authority (Daa) holds the statutory responsibility for managing and operating Dublin Airport, and proceedings to address the cap are ongoing. “[The] Daa is currently working to address the passenger cap through the Infrastructure Application submitted to the planning authority (Fingal County Council) in December 2023, and the Operational ‘no build’ Application submitted in February 2025. Both applications are currently being assessed,” a spokesperson for the department told the Irish Examiner. Furthermore, legal proceedings are also underway, having the effect of there essentially being no cap. “The High Court has imposed a partial stay on the Irish Aviation Authority’s decision to limit slot capacity (through a passenger seat cap) at Dublin Airport, pending the outcome of the Court’s referral to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). “This means there are no effective capacity constraints at the airport this year and likely for 2026 also.” No passenger caps on Cork or Shannon The Department of Transport spokesperson added that there are no capacity restrictions at any of Ireland’s other State airports, Cork and Shannon. "Cork Airport's passenger numbers increased by 10% in 2024, and Shannon’s by 7%,” the spokesperson said. The rugby effect The CSO will release their inbound tourism figures for March later this month, but it is important to note that Ireland was down one Six Nations Rugby match in 2025, compared with 2024, and while data from business on the ground shows a slightly different picture to that of the CSO’s, Daa’s data is somewhat concurrent with that of the Central Statistics Office. Passengers through Dublin Airport’s terminal doors dropped to 2.54m in March, a decline of 83,000 (3%) versus the same month last year. “This is the fourth month in a row that passenger numbers at Dublin Airport are down or flat versus the same month last year, despite strong demand from both passengers and airlines to fly in and out of Dublin. This is reflected in the latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures showing tourism numbers declining in February versus the same month last year,” according to the Daa’s March passenger numbers release. Blarney Castle Blarney Castle & Gardens typically attracts around 460,000 visitors annually. They described the start of their year as “soft” and said their summer predictions look “promising”. “Thankfully our figures did not match up with the percentages released by the CSO in February,” a spokesperson said. "It was a soft start to the year but certainly not to the levels being reported." The major tourist attraction is hopeful for the summer ahead, based on feedback from tour companies they engage with. The numbers for the rest of the year look promising but with the ever-changing world landscape you have to be cautious. “The feedback from Meitheal [Fáilte Ireland’s tourism trade fair which took place earlier this month in Killarney] from tour companies we met were that bookings are good so hopefully this will be the case for the remainder of 2025,” the spokesperson told the Irish Examiner. Bunratty Castle Bunratty Castle and Folk Park in Clare had a better February 2025 compared to 2024’s. “February 2025 witnessed an increase in visitor numbers to Bunratty Castle and Folk Park when compared to the corresponding period in 2024. “This growth occurred despite a national decline in overseas visitor figures and was primarily supported by strong domestic engagement, notably during the St Brigid’s Day public holiday weekend and the school midterm recess,” a spokesperson for Clare County Council told the Irish Examiner. However, while summer bookings are “strong”, the spokesperson cited potential challenges ahead, meaning they will probably be on a par with 2024. “Projections for summer 2025 visitor numbers to Bunratty Castle and Folk Park present a balanced view. Strong advance bookings offer promise, but potential challenges, including cost competitiveness, inflation, and air access uncertainty suggest maintaining 2024 levels is the most probable outcome,” the spokesperson said. In 2023, Bunratty Castle and Folk Park saw over 344,000 visitors, a 14% increase from the previous year. The Bunratty Medieval Banquet also experienced a 30% increase in attendance, with 43,000 people attending. The Cliffs of Moher Annual visitor numbers hit the 1.5m mark in 2023 at The Cliffs of Moher, one of Ireland’s most visited sites, and the Cliffs of Moher Visitor Experience recorded 1.136m visitors. A spokesperson for Clare County Council said February 2025 was on a par with the same month last year when it came to visitor numbers at the Cliffs of Moher Experience. “Despite the national decrease in overseas visitors, we benefited from strong domestic interest, particularly due to the St Brigid’s Day celebrations and the extended bank holiday weekend, which positively influenced footfall during the month,” said the spokesperson. Bookings for the summer already look “robust”. “Looking ahead to summer 2025, we expect visitor numbers at the Cliffs of Moher Experience to remain consistent with last year’s performance. “Early bookings are robust, especially from tour operators who are securing preferred time slots well in advance,” they added. Dubbed the food capital of Ireland and a major destination town for foreign visitors, we asked several businesses in Kinsale how their year so far has been and what summer bookings look like. Suzanne Burns of Kinsale Food Tours said her “figures were slightly lower than last year, but only marginally”. “I get more domestic tourism during winter and it appears more people went on winter holidays this year with the bad summer’s we’ve had of late,” Ms Burns told the Irish Examiner. The summer ahead is looking good for her business. My tour bookings are very strong for the season ahead, and we are up on total numbers in comparison to the summer of 2024. "From talking to other tourism businesses and accommodation providers in Kinsale, they are also predicting a strong season. “That said, we are tempering this with a little caution based on market fluctuations at the moment,” she added. Tracy Keoghan, the owner of Lemon Leaf Café Bar and Townhouse, which provides food and accommodation in Kinsale, noted a “slight decline”. “We have found that numbers for us are down from last year in January/February period. Though slight, the increasing rise of operating costs is a constant concern,” she said. “Our booking.com account manager has alerted us to a decrease in American bookings up to June. For the moment we are holding our own with slight increases in sales but this could be attributed to the rise in room price which we had to do to offset operating costs,” she said. Ms Keoghan said she has expanded her business to try and increase sales, opening in Charles Fort and launching a new evening offering on Friday and Saturday nights. “Concerns remain about cost pressures, especially energy and payroll, but businesses are also encouraged by positive reviews, recommendations, and repeat visitors. “Most tourism businesses expect visitor levels to be up or the same, but with ever-changing global concerns is that wishful thinking?” she added. Killarney National Park The national park in Killarney does not have any official figures for 2025 so far. However, it has been “busy” at the tourist hotspot according to a spokesperson from the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage. “While it has been busy all year, generally visitor numbers start to pick up over Easter and continue to increase then right through the summer. “With just under 2m visitors recorded in the park last year, we would expect similar this year,” the spokesperson said. The Rock of Cashel According to the Office of Public Works, the Rock of Cashel in Tipperary welcomed 365,505 visitors in 2024, making it the third most visited OPW-managed heritage site in the country. According to an OPW spokesperson, for the iconic Munster site, that was “an increase on 2023 visitor volumes of 357,273”. The spokesperson added that there is no indication for summer yet as seasonal heritage sites only re-opened on March 15 ahead of St Patrick’s weekend, and “May, June, July and August represent the peak season for visitor volumes at heritage sites.” However, Cashel Chamber of Commerce president Martin Lynch told the Irish Examiner that, from engagement with local businesses, the early part of the year was quieter than the same period last year. “We are aware of the Central Statistics Office’s recent figures indicating a decline in overseas visitor numbers in early 2025 compared with the same period in 2024,” he said. “While the Cashel Chamber of Commerce does not hold official admission data for the Rock of Cashel, our engagement with local tourism stakeholders suggests that visitor numbers during January and February were slightly lower than expected. It is our understanding that this may be due in part to unsettled weather conditions in the early months of the year, which impacted travel plans across the country. Much like many other businesses, there is concern around global economic uncertainty. “In addition, feedback from within the sector suggests that economic uncertainty in certain long-haul markets, particularly in North America, may be contributing to delayed decision-making among prospective travellers,” Mr Lynch told the Irish Examiner. And, for the summer ahead, businesses in Cashel are getting strong bookings from Europe. “Looking ahead to the peak summer season, there is cautious optimism among businesses in the Cashel area. Accommodation providers, restaurants, and tourism operators are reporting healthy levels of enquiries and early bookings, particularly from mainland Europe,” he said. “Tourism from European markets has shown steady and sustained growth in recent years, and this positive trend appears to be continuing into 2025. “Interest in cultural and heritage tourism remains strong from European markets, and the Rock of Cashel continues to serve as a major draw for both domestic and international visitors,” Mr Lynch added.