The Yemeni government is reportedly mustering a massive army in preparation for a ground offensive – supported by US firepower and intelligence – against the Iran-backed Houthi rebel movement, which has been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea and launching missiles at Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Meetings have been under way this week between the Saudi Arabia-based government-in-exile, known as the Yemen Leadership Council, and various factions to plan and coordinate the campaign against the Houthis, who have seized control of the capital Sanaa, Red Sea ports and key populated areas since 2014. Progress appeared to have been made by Thursday, with President Rashad Muhammad Al-Alimi praising “broad national alignment,” and the readiness of combined forces to wage “a battle for salvation” against the Houthis. “The Houthis are a permanent threat to international peace and security,” Alimi said. The Houthis are the largest faction in the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, which includes Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas – both severely weakened by Israel since October 2023, along with various Iraqi militia groups. According to Emily Milliken, an associate director of the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank’s Middle East programmes, the Yemeni government may be mobilising 80,000 troops to reclaim Hodeidah, the largest port on the Red Sea and a critical logistics hub for the Houthis, as well as a vital lifeline for Yemen’s civilians. It would be the “biggest Yemeni government offensive ever seen”, Milliken told This Week In Asia – though the estimated 350,000 Houthi fighters would still outnumber these forces. She said the anti-Houthi coalition was also hampered by inconsistencies in training and equipment, with some Yemeni militias receiving training and support from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while “others are poorly trained” and lack “access to modern equipment”. The two Gulf monarchies invaded Yemen in 2015 at the head of an Arab military coalition, heavily armed with Western war machines, after the Houthis overthrew the internationally recognised government. After failing to dislodge the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and the UAE withdrew their forces in 2022 as their foreign-policy focus shifted from confronting the Iran-led Axis of Resistance to normalising relations with Tehran, which was encouraged by China. Hodeidah and other Houthi-controlled ports in the Red Sea have increasingly been targeted by US warplanes and missiles launched from naval ships in recent weeks. The nearby oil-exporting port of Ras Isa and surrounding areas were hit in US air strikes from April 16-17, resulting in at least 80 deaths, mostly among port workers and civilians, that prompted United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to express “grave concern”. Qatar-based US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the region, had said the objective of the Ras Isa attacks, like Hodeidah’s, was to “degrade the economic source of power of the Houthis”. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have dismissed recent US media reports that they would participate in the brewing offensive against the Houthis. However, Fatima Abo Alasrar, senior policy analyst of the Washington Centre for Yemeni Studies think tank, believes Saudi Arabia and the UAE were “hedging for now, but neither wants to see a Houthi victory”. Instead, “they’ll stay behind the scenes, supporting just enough to shape the outcome without owning the consequences”, she said. Similarly, with Iran engaged in negotiations over its nuclear programme with the US, Tehran’s role in supporting the Houthis “will remain asymmetric”, involving logistics, propaganda, and arms,” Alasrar said. “But it’s watching closely for signs of Gulf and US overreach that it can exploit.” The US Navy, which launched an intense bombing campaign against Houthi targets in mid-March after President Donald Trump vowed to “completely annihilate” the 350,000-strong militia, had recently begun targeting frontline Houthi units battling Yemeni government forces, ostensibly in preparation for the ground offensive. During last year’s US presidential election campaign, Trump criticised his predecessor Joe Biden’s administration for ordering air strikes against the Houthis. Annelle Rodriguez Sheline, a Middle East research fellow of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, considered Trump’s change of tack “hypocritical”, given Trump’s criticism of Biden’s failed attempts to bomb the Houthis into submission. She said the Trump administration’s willingness to abandon its “America first” foreign policy – which would require other countries shoulder the burden for securing the Red Sea, given the lack of American shipping through the waterway – reflected his “overwhelming support for Israel”. “The best way to secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is for Israel to end its bombing and blockade of Gaza,” Sheline said, noting that the Houthis had maintained their commitment not to attack ships during a recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas from mid-January to early March. American military contractors are reportedly on the ground in Yemen, advising government forces and enhancing coordination with US forces, while also strengthening Washington’s previously weak intelligence-gathering capability. The Trump administration has to date been coy about its wider plans for Yemen, saying that US air strikes against the Houthis would continue as long as the group keeps attacking shipping and Israel. Shortly after the US intensified its bombing of the Houthis, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell refused to comment on whether this would extend to support for a ground offensive, but admitted that Washington had “ways of conducting sensitive site exploitations without deploying American troops”. The Yemeni government “should take its cue and move”, Alasrar said. “There’s rare momentum among anti-Houthi factions and also better understanding from the international community” on the Houthis due to their Red Sea disruption, attacks on Israel, and “their draconian oppression at home”, she said. US support was “already in play” through the air strikes, but without ground coordination and intelligence sharing, especially in mined zones like Hodeidah, “this opportunity could slip fast”, Alasrar said. Analysts agreed, however, that any US-backed offensive would not be sufficient to end the Houthis’ threat to Red Sea shipping, much of which has been diverted around Africa as a result. “Truly securing freedom of navigation for commercial shipping in the waterways surrounding Yemen will require more than a military offensive,” Milliken said. The US would also need to disrupt Houthi supply chains, particularly their access to anti-ship weapons and components, and strengthen the Yemeni coastguard, she said. Milliken said any large-scale offensive by the Yemeni government would “likely drag on”, as the Houthis were deeply entrenched in northern Yemen, and government forces struggle to coordinate across factions due to fragmentation. A prolonged ground campaign would “exacerbate the already devastating humanitarian disaster” in Yemen and could even present an opportunity for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council “to push for autonomy in Southern Yemen as they push to contain the Houthis in the north”, she warned. “The real danger”, according to Alasrar, is that the Houthis could escalate attacks in the region and force direct international intervention. “Because once outside powers get pulled in, it’s no longer about Yemen, and we’ve seen what that looks like,” she said.