The recovery in airlift capacity is central to future tourism growth opportunities for Barbados, but economic turbulence in key source markets for visitors could be a challenge. That is according to a Central Bank of Barbados staff analysis on airlift capacity, long-stay visitor trends and economic growth. “The recovery in airlift capacity post-pandemic underpins future growth opportunities. Enhanced airlift has been instrumental in boosting Barbados’ visitor arrivals and supporting the broader economy,” the Central Bank says. “However, source markets face varying economic challenges that could impact future demand. To sustain momentum, Barbados must continuously refine its tourism strategies to align with evolving market trends and visitor preferences. “Strengthening partnerships with international carriers will also be critical to maintaining long-term growth in arrivals and ensuring the resilience of the tourism sector,” it advised. The report reminded that “tourism remains the backbone of Barbados’ economy”. “Since the 1970s, tourism has been a critical driver of economic growth and foreign exchange earnings, contributing an average of 50 per cent of export revenues,” it states. “The sector has continuously evolved, attracting visitors primarily from the United Kingdom (UK), United States (US), CARICOM, and Canada, which have remained the dominant source markets. While visitor dynamics have shifted over time, the UK has been a key market since the mid-1990s, accounting for an average of 36 per cent of arrivals from 1994 to 2024.” Affordability of travel The Central Bank made it clear that airlift is a vital component of tourism’s prospects now and in the future. “Air connectivity is pivotal to tourism demand and economic performance. The availability of airlift capacity directly influences access to destinations and the affordability of travel, making it a critical enabler of Barbados’ tourism growth,” it said. “Factors such as airline seating capacity, the economic conditions of source markets, paid leave availability, and competitor developments all shape tourism demand.” The staff analysis added: “Improved air connectivity is also strongly correlated with economic growth, as noted by the International Air Transport Association. For small island nations like Barbados, air connectivity drives job creation, supports tourism-related industries, and boosts overall economic activity.” The Central Bank noted that Barbados “has significantly expanded airlift capacity from the USA in recent years”. “Since 2015, airlift capacity has more than doubled, increasing by an average of 22.4 per cent annually – excluding the pandemic period, 2020 to 2022,” it said. “This expansion has supported annual longstay arrival growth of 8.8 per cent over the same period. By the end of 2024, airlift seating capacity from the USA surged, with capacity 11.7 per cent higher than the previous peak in 2019.” The monetary authority added: “Increased operations by carriers such as American Airlines, JetBlue, Delta, United Airlines, and Frontier drove this growth, resulting in record-breaking long-stay arrivals from the USA, which grew from a pre-pandemic average of 203 972 visitors – 2017 to 2019 – to 228 128 visitors in 2024.” (SC)