This week’s most important news must be the almost certain and long-awaited death of US attempts to force Ukraine to capitulate to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. There’s a section on that below. In terms of the actual war itself, the Russian Spring offensive (such as it is) is kicking off, pretty much simultaneously with mostly warm and relatively dry weather in Ukraine right now. The Russian strategy seems to be more ambitious ground attacks in selected sectors, and intensified long-range strikes targeting civilians. They have been a lot more successful attacking civilians than Ukrainian defenses. Big Russian armored attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk On Thursday, video followed by battle reports surfaced of a pretty substantial Russian armored assault in the Pokrovsk sector in the vicinity of Kramatorsk, a place known to some of the readers of this blog. The Russians came in four waves, notably with close to 100 motorcycles. The Russian objective seems to have been to send light infantry first on the motorcycles to grab new positions, and then the armored vehicles were to follow up carrying reinforcements, ammo, entrenching equipment, and so forth. As a battle tactic, this is more refinement of the ongoing Russian effort to figure out a way to advance over open ground under permanent observation by Ukrainian drones. The defending unit, per reports, was a National Guard outfit called 14th Brigade “Chervona Kalina.” The name comes from a berry-bearing plant called Red Guelder Rose or “Viburnum.” In the Ukrainian context, Chervona Kalina is the title of a patriotic song popularized during WWI and re-popularized following Russia’s first invasion. It’s known widely in Ukraine; school kids sing it in class, the lyrics talk about the viburnum bush and Ukraine growing and flowering together. Image of the plant and some berries. 14th National Guard Brigade is headquartered in Vinnytsia, where local government is relatively effective, so in the central part of Ukraine, with a reasonably solid civilian support base. The backbone of the brigade was an Internal Ministry security guard/special ops unit called Jaguar, also based in Vinnytsia. Jaguar was on the side of the protesters during Maidan, and sub-units fought in Donbas in 2014-21. They became the 14th brigade in 2022 and have fought almost exclusively in the Zaporizhzhia sector. I tracked down a picture of their commander, Col. Oleksandr Okhrimenko. I think the relevant bit is that this guy has been with this unit on active duty, including combat ops, since 2014. Okhrimenko’s brigade met the Russian attack with standard Ukrainian defensive tactics, i.e., the battlefield was under pretty much permanent drone observation and when it was clear the Russians were moving, drones came in to drop mines and hit men and vehicles, and in some places artillery and mortar fire was called in. First-person-view (FPV) drones hunted down the survivors and made sure all stopped vehicles were set on fire. Reports are that the Russians didn’t gain ground, and those who could, retreated. What was uncommon was the scale of the assault, which I take to be an indicator that somewhere in the Russian chain of command, a decision was made to make a big, battalion-sized attack. For the past two months or so, across the entire front, the Russian drill has been infantrymen in groups of two-to-10 trying to infiltrate forward. According to the Ukrainians, they have video of “more than” 240 Russian soldiers killed or wounded, and 96 motorcycles, 21 armored vehicles of various types, two automobiles, and two “artillery systems” destroyed in a morning of fighting. 14th Brigade was the original source of the video, it was confirmed and passed on in the Ukrainian media. The drone video seems accurate, but it’s grainy, so I’ve included an image of Russian soldiers training riding motorcycles tactically. At minimum, this seems to have been the biggest motorcycle-mounted attack of the war, and pretty unsuccessful. So the Russian quest to find a way to gain ground without paving the path forward with bodies will go on. Some 200-250 men in a morning in exchange for no gains is a lot. Elements of the 117th Heavy Mech Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade participated in the fight as well and also turned back assaults, I read. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that the Russians had lost 115 vehicles of all types and 200+ killed across that front, but there’s less evidence of that. Zelensky, in the same statement, said that in a Wednesday attack in the Zaporizhzhia sector, the Russians lost 40 vehicles, 80 dead, and 100+ wounded. Battle bloggers said the attack was near Robotyne, scene of Ukraine’s failed big offensive back in 2023, and the nearby village of Kopani. According to those reports, the Russians sent about 150-200 men backed with “dozens” of armored vehicles out into the ope,n and they were turned back with heavy losses. One blogger, (Hovoryat Snaiper) called the Russian defeat “a total f*ck up” and suggested what was going on is that the Russians had introduced a fresh mech unit into the line which was poorly trained, so it got really cut up in its baptism of fire. Which may be so, but so far, I haven’t seen video backing up this battle’s details. On Saturday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) said the town of Siversk, held now for three years, is another Russian objective for the current offensive. They said the 10th Mountain Brigade is in the sector and holding. This week saw several reports of small-scale Ukrainian counterattacks that seem to have been possibly successful but certainly small. In the Donbas, to the west of Kurakhove, north of Velyka Novosilka (places known to some readers of this blog), the Ukrainians claimed on Tuesday they had liberated the village of Dniproenerhiya. The Russians confirmed there was fighting but claimed it was still held by Russia. Likewise, in the Donbas region, Toretsk sector, the 81st Air Assault Brigade claimed they kicked the Russians out of positions between that town and a village called Yampolivka. The Russians say it’s back-and-forth fighting. Image attached of an 81st Brigade Stryker. Inside Russia, in Belgorod region, there are pretty reliable reports that troops there – my guess would be the 36th Marine Brigade – expanded the enclave with the capture of a forest adjacent to the village Demidovka. There’s no info about Russian losses, so maybe the Ukrainians just advanced against no resistance. Stolen map attached so you can see the forest. In the Kharkiv sector, likewise, it appears the Ukrainians advanced a bit near the village of Stepova Novoselivka, this could be the 12th National Guard Brigade Azov – they have been fighting in that area for a while. Reportedly, 1.5 square kilometers (0.6 square miles), in other words, the equivalent of a single standard farm field, was gained. Attached is an image of a rare French 120mm mortar from the Kharkiv sector. Not sure if this is an Azov mortar. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky this week claimed that overall, “recently,” the ZSU has liberated about 15 square kilometers (6 square miles) of Ukraine. However, we should not forget that over the same week the Russians have made small-scale gains in Donbas, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia sectors, so the operational picture is overall static. Of course, a year ago, the Ukrainians attacking and gaining ground roughly on par with the Russians would have been extraordinary. America Sez: Ukraine doesn’t need air defense weapons As noted in a previous review, the Zelensky government has been turning the screws on the Trump regime and offering to buy, for money, US air defense weaponry, particularly Patriot missile reloads. The Ukrainian strategy here is to defuse American complaints that the Ukrainians accept only hand-outs, but also, without Patriots, Ukraine has no defense against Russian ballistic missiles. On Monday, the US President, asked about the offer by a reporter, blamed Zelensky for starting the war and said it was Ukraine’s error to provoke Russia first, and then go searching for missiles later. The comment, following a deadly missile strike (hitting the city of Sumy on Palm Sunday, the day before two ballistic missiles, cluster munition warheads, 34 dead, 100+ injured, all civilians) was widely reported in Ukraine. Trump’s position denying Ukraine Patriot missiles to protect its people from Russian ballistic missiles was criticized. Trump, seeming to downplay Kremlin responsibility, called the Russian attack “a mistake.” The Russians, meanwhile, continued with their apparent strategy of attacking Ukrainian targets with long-range missiles, the objective being to cause maximum casualties, civilian or military, unimportant. I assume the Kremlin’s objectives are to force the Ukrainians to surrender by killing people, and to demonstrate to the Americans that the US can’t make Russia do things. On Thursday, the Russians launched three or four ballistic missiles at Kharkiv, one of which scattered anti-personnel slugs (pictured) next to an apartment building. One person was killed and 100+, among them six children, were injured. The strike took place at 5 a.m., so lots of people were home sleeping. Since Kharkiv is a proper city with a fully developed public health system, emergency responders, volunteers, and above all, years of experience being bombarded by Russia, you can take from me, had the strike hit almost any other city in the world, the death toll would have been orders of magnitude higher. My guess is that about half of the wounded would have bled out before someone got to them. According to the Ministry of Emergency Affairs, explosions or fragments hit multi-story apartment buildings, an educational institution, and several cars. The roof of a two-story building containing a workshop was set on fire, about 450 square meters (4,844 square feet) of the business property was burnt. There’s a school next to the apartment building – all the windows were blown out. In adjacent buildings, the explosions ripped off balconies. Also, since this was Kharkiv, the media was on the scene faster than the emergency responders, in force, so the documentation of what damage was done and what a residential district looks like right after a Russian ballistic missile strike was substantial. I’ve done two combined images of local visuals, one of the damage, and one of the people. The most important photo, I think, is the anti-personnel slugs; this is what got blasted into those people’s apartments in the middle of the night. To be clear: Right now, the official policy of the United States, is not selling Patriot missiles to Ukraine – which allows this kind of attack to take place – is in the best interests of US national security. There was also a missile strike in Dnipro that hit a fitness center, a hotel, and an office. In Kherson, the Russians glider-bombed a big apartment complex overlooking the Dnipro River. That strike killed a teenager. The ceasefire and the peace process – It’s dead, Jim At the start of the week, Trump’s aides reportedly were advising him to take a tougher stance toward Russia (WSJ), and supposedly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Representative Keith Kellogg were behind this point of view. It was the case, as we have seen, that their boss had a very different opinion, as the same day, Donald J. Trump ruled out helping Ukraine with Patriot missiles. The next day, Trump blamed Ukraine and Russia equally and said he was upset that neither side seemed interested in peace. Meanwhile, on Monday, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s golfing buddy and designated main man to talk to the Russians, said that he had a “compelling” meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and that “finally” the Russian position is clear. He went on to say a possible way to peace would be for Ukraine to hand over five of its regions to Russia and that Ukraine might think that was reasonable because a majority of people there speak Russian. There are big prospects for Russian-American economic cooperation, he added. Then, on Wednesday, Rubio and Witkoff flew to Paris to meet with Ukrainian officials, and then with French President Emmanuel Macron. After that, Rubio told reporters the talks were “encouraging” and that he had phoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to put forward the US position, whatever that was. He also made the point – which has been screamingly obvious since Trump started promising he would end the war in 24 hours – that a ceasefire etc., would only be possible with European participation. Among other things, it’s a hard Russian position that Ukraine must be neutral and Europe cannot place troops in Ukraine. Rubio said he communicated the “US position” to Lavrov. Also on Wednesday, the UN voted on a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The US, along with eight other nations, including Belarus, North Korea, and, of course, Russia, voted against the resolution. On Thursday, Zelensky tells Kyiv reporters Witkoff is negotiating the transfer of Ukrainian territory to Russia without Ukraine even being present, and that there is no chance Ukraine would accept that. The US delegation left Paris on Friday. Rubio told reporters the US wants a peace deal in “days not weeks” and that if that doesn’t work then the US will pick up its marbles and go home. Rubio’s sound bite was: “We have to decide quickly whether this is going to work.” Same day, in Washington, Trump tells reporters he is thinking of walking away from the peace process if something doesn’t give quickly. On Friday, via Bloomberg talking to “European” diplomats, details of the peace terms Rubio had been pushing emerged: Leave all occupied areas under Russian control, ease sanctions on Russia, and Ukraine may not join NATO. Nothing about reparations, kidnapped Ukrainian children, or Ukrainian enclaves inside Russia. It’s not clear if the Russian control proposed by the Americans was de facto or de jure. Also on Friday, in New York, the Russian UN ambassador stated: “A ceasefire at this time in Ukraine is unrealistic.” Late on Friday, a new Bloomberg report emerges (I assume their reporter is getting fed this by a French diplomat), the American position includes Russia’s de jure control of Crimea, legalizing Russia’s invasion and gunpoint “referendum” in 2014. A reporter asked Trump how long the US would wait before quitting the peace process. Trump said: “not long.” On Saturday, The New York Times reported the US would no longer supply Ukraine with weapons, even for money. Image of Marco Rubio insulting his future boss, Donald Trump, during a Republican Presidential candidate debate in 2016. Drops of oil After reading Bloomberg and talking to some oil patch guys, and watching the price of oil fall in Russia even more this week, here is some information. - The US tariffs are depressing the price of oil worldwide and right now it’s at the lowest it’s been since the middle of 2023. Right now, the price is about $60-65/bbl. - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have pretty much abandoned OPEC targets and now are in a supply race to grab more market share as the price falls – there will be substantial surplus of oil in markets worldwide at least throughout summer. - The trend is, it will fall some more but the pace is slowing, and probably the Brent (this is Europe, basically) will settle at about $55-60/bbl, but if the market share war continues or there are more tariff shocks, the price could fall below $50/bbl - Russia’s Urals crude oil was trading this week at about $51 a barrel at Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, and it was $47.50 last week, likewise the lowest level for about two years. - The Russian Federation budget depends on a Urals price of $67, otherwise deficit. So already the Russians are in the red. I think I recently calculated it might be 15-20% less state revenues. If price trends continue like the smart guys are predicting, then 15-20 less, mathematically, might become 18-25% less. - That is an income cut to the Russian state insufficient to stop its war-making capacity, but more than enough to trigger state worker salary cuts or sackings, significant breaks in the Russian military supply chain, and problems paying soldiers and officers their paychecks. - Whether Russia is trading for the artillery ammunition and mercenaries it is receiving from North Korea, or paying hard currency, is a big question here. If the Russians are paying hard currency, then the oil price tailspin will hit here hardest, and probably first, would be my guess. Bloomberg image of a tanker with a headline about Russian oil production, this section is mostly me crunching their reporting. Ukraine’s counter-strikes Ukraine retaliated for Russia’s bloody Palm Sunday strike on Wednesday by sending drones against Russia’s Ivanovo region, Tula Oblast, where a unit called the 112th Missile Brigade is based. Ukrainian military intelligence is of the opinion that the 112th fired the missiles at Sumy. Then – and this is not characteristic of the Ukrainians – they hit the base again, 24 hours later, for good measure. The village near the base is called Shuya. A reasonably detailed write-up of the Ukrainian strikes is here. What is interesting, besides the fact that we see Ukraine and Russia duking it out roughly on even terms with long-range strikes, and Ukraine taking its shots using its own weapons which it doesn’t have to ask anyone permission to use – is the amount of information that was available about the Ukrainian attacks and how fast and precise it was. The Russian social media in the Tula region, in simple terms, went into overdrive, so if you had an internet connection and could read Russian, it was possible, almost, to monitor the Ukrainian drones coming in, in real time. People uploaded video of drones passing overhead, diving down and exploding, ambulances and emergency response vehicles zooming from here to there, and it seemed like hundreds of Russians both near and far from the general vicinity, wanted to upload information about what was going on. This is all, of course, in direct violation of Russian law banning putting militarily sensitive information on the internet. However, since the Tula authorities kept insisting the situation was fully under control, that all the Ukrainian drones were shot down, and no damage was done, it’s pretty obvious that people are going to try and find reliable information somewhere. These are real robot aircraft carrying real explosives and even if President Putin or his appointed Tula governor (Dmitriy Milayev, image) isn’t in those drones’ flight path, people in Tula that think that they might be, decided on Wednesday and Thursday that the internet was the place to find out what the heck was going on. For the Ukrainians, the net effect was air raid monitoring and battle damage reporting that was ridiculously fast. It’s nuts that from open sources within two-to-four hours of the attacks, there were damage estimates geo-located to 16-digit grids out there for people to look at. This is faster than battle intelligence processing by almost any military on Earth. The Ukrainian term for all these chatty Russian civilians is “People’s Correspondents.” Ukrainian map image of the base location, plus open-source intelligence developed from people’s correspondent reporting, attached. Also, some photographs of senior officers in the 112th – these are the people the Ukrainians were shooting for. No clear evidence on whether or not any of these soldiers were hit. There were some optimistic Ukrainian claims, but just claims. Reprinted from Kyiv Post’s Special Military Correspondent Stefan Korshak’s blog. You can read his blog here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.