SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 24: A CarMax logo is displayed at a dealership on April 24, 2025 in ... More San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images) Getty Images CarMax (NYSE:KMX) is scheduled to announce its Q1 FY’26 earnings on Friday, June 20th. Analysts predict that revenue will rise to approximately $7.56 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year, while adjusted earnings are anticipated to be around $1.19 per share, compared to $0.97 in the same quarter last year. CarMax has experienced revenue growth, propelled by an increase in second-hand vehicle sales volume and an expansion in its financing operations. Profitability has also been improving, aided by enhanced cost management as well as digital innovations that have contributed to a better customer experience and operational efficiency. CarMax currently has a market capitalization of $10 billion. Its revenue over the past twelve months was $26 billion, and the company reported a net income of $501 million. However, if you're looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having surpassed the S&P 500 and generated returns over 91% since its launch. CarMax’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return A few observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: There have been 20 recorded earnings data points over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In total, positive 1D returns occurred about 40% of the time. Interestingly, this percentage rises to 58% if we look at data from the last 3 years instead of 5. The median of the 8 positive returns is 5.9%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -9.4% Additional information on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below. KMX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively less risky approach (although it may not be beneficial if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that displays the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader can place a “long” position for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns. KMX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns MORE FOR YOU Minnesota Shooting Suspect Vance Boelter Arrested After State’s ‘Largest Manhunt’ (Live Updates) UAE To Host Cricket’s Asia Cup, But India-Pakistan Tensions Jeopardize Lucrative Event Beyond The Hype: What Apple's AI Warning Means For Business Leaders Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which includes all 3: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a smoother experience compared to an individual stock like CarMax, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions