THE main independence coalition in New Caledonia, the Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS), will hold an extraordinary Congress on August 9 August, to debate the Bougival agreement and the way forward on decolonisation. The congress, bringing together Union Calédonienne (UC) and other smaller pro-independence parties, has been called after widespread criticism of a new agreement on New Caledonia’s political status, known as the Bougival Accord. The agreement, signed on July 12 in the town of Bougival on the outskirts of Paris, was described as “historic” by French President Emmanuel Macron. French authorities proudly proclaimed the deal, suggesting it opened the way for a new State of New Caledonia within the French Republic and a New Caledonian nationality. However, the text, adopted by French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls and representatives of six New Caledonian parliamentary groups, is not a final agreement. To be implemented, Bougival must go through several steps before it is legally binding, including passage of basic laws in both Paris and Noumea, a joint sitting of both houses of the French Parliament, and a referendum of New Caledonian citizens, proposed for February 2026. After 10 days of negotiations, New Caledonian leaders jointly agreed to promote the Bougival text before their membership in New Caledonia, with the Accord stating: “All partners commit to presenting and defending the text in accordance with the Agreement on the Future of New Caledonia.” However, as reported last month by Islands Business, it was clear that there were many questions about core elements of the deal. There is also outright opposition from key political forces – including both conservative anti-independence politicians and many members of the key independence coalition FLNKS. Debates over agreement Despite this, after leaders returned to Noumea, the agreement has been endorsed by some pro-independence parties, including the Parti de Libération Kanak (Palika) and Union Progréssiste en Mélanésie (UPM) – both members of the Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance parliamentary group (UNI). After an extraordinary Congress on 19 July, Palika stated that “the present draft agreement constitutes a major political advance.” Palika spokesperson Judickaël Selefen said: “It sets out a gradual path to sovereignty based on innovative, new, and unprecedented foundations, such as the creation of a ‘New Caledonia State’, the establishment of New Caledonian nationality, the transfer of foreign relations to New Caledonia, accession to an international status, and the association of New Caledonia with the exercise of sovereign powers. For Palika, the political challenge of creating the new State of New Caledonia is now to structure and organise the attributes of the sovereignty of this new state.” However recent meetings of Union Calédonienne, the largest-independence party in the FLNKS, have sharply criticised the text, despite the signature at Bougival by FLNKS negotiators. On 21 July, the UC executive committee met with the five-member FLNKS delegation who signed the text in France. In a statement after the meeting, the UC executive noted “that the fundamentals of the Kanak people’s struggle are not present [in the agreement]. Indeed, the project offers very weak prospects for emerging from colonial rule and proposes only superficial attributes of sovereignty.” The UC executive criticised other elements of the deal, noting “the transfer of sovereign powers is constrained by insurmountable barriers; international recognition is not clearly defined; and finally, the unfreezing of electoral rolls is synonymous with the recolonisation of our country.” A statement, signed by UC Secretary General Dominique Fochi, stresses that the agreement “remains at this stage a draft…and denounces the strategies of the French State, which continues to ignore the FLNKS’ contestation of the 2021 referendum and shirks its responsibility for the revolt of May 13, which was triggered by the constitutional bill opening the electoral rolls.” A further meeting of the UC leadership was held on 26 July, in front of 300 activists at Gatope. This meeting also issued a statement criticising the Bougival Accord, noting that “this document is not a balance between two visions, but presents an illusion of sovereignty allowing for the maintenance of French New Caledonia. The steering committee of 26 July at Gatope thus formally rejected the draft Bougival agreement, because the fundamentals of our struggle and the principles of decolonisation are not included in it.” After these meetings, Mickaël Forrest – a member of the FLNKS delegation involved in the negotiations – bluntly told journalists: “Bougival is finished.” UC President Emmanuel Tjibaou, who led the FLNKS negotiating team at Bougival, stressed: “What matters to us is the right to self-determination, not obtaining a paper nationality.” Tjibaou defended the right of an FLNKS Congress to further debate the text: “We signed a commitment to defend the text, but we did not sign off on the agreement. We kept our commitment by coming back to our base, but in the end, it is they who decide, as always.” Finding a pathway to independence UC leaders have flagged three major areas of concern, that undercut the headline achievements of the Bougival deal. They question the substance of the innovative new statehood within France; oppose expanded voting rights for the provincial assemblies and Congress; and challenge the effective veto created over further transfer of sovereign powers, due to the increased number of seats for the Southern Province in the Congress of New Caledonia (the local legislature will be expanded from 54 to 56 seats, and a redistribution of seats between the three provinces will likely increase the anti-independence majority in the Southern Province). The Bougival text allows for the future transfer of sovereign powers from Paris to Noumea (such as police and courts, currency and defence), after a request from the Congress of New Caledonia. However UC leaders have questioned whether this will be possible given the increased number of seats held by anti-independence parties: “Any request for transfer must go through the adoption of a resolution by Congress with a majority of 64 per cent. In other words, it is the non-independence supporters who will have the power to authorise us – or not – to request sovereignty.” The 1998 Noumea Accord restricted voting for the three provincial assemblies and Congress to New Caledonian citizens, rather than all French nationals. However Bougival proposes to expand the number of voters to include all locally-born residents and other people resident in New Caledonia for 15 years. For UC, “the opening of the provincial electoral rolls for all residents with fifteen years residency will allow the registration of 18,000 new voters in 2026, 42,000 after 15 years, and even more afterwards.” UC leaders also challenged the powers of any State within the French State: “Although elements of a sovereign nation are mentioned – such as the designation of a ‘State’, a nationality, a Basic law with the capacity for self-organisation, and international recognition – this document is perceived as a draft agreement for integration into France, presented under the guise of decolonisation….But the FLNKS has never accepted a status of autonomy within France, instead seeking an external decolonisation through accession to full sovereignty.” After a year in pre-trial detention, FLNKS President Christian Tein has been released from prison, but remains in France. Speaking from Corsica last week, Tein said that he understood why FLNKS negotiators had signed on to promoting the text of the Bougival agreement: “The pressure that was exerted on each other during this period of discussions has been terrible.” Currently banned from New Caledonia, Tein – a leader of the CCAT network during last year’s conflict – will not be able to attend next weekend’s FLNKS Congress. But the longtime UC member told AFP: “Personally, I am against this agreement because it does not meet our expectations. I believe we are too far from the path already travelled.” “For me, the approach is flawed from the outset, because the French State is still involved,” he said. “They propose a small nation within a large nation, but we have not fought for the construction of our country using this method.” Other voices challenge the accord This criticism has been echoed by other pro-independence forces within and outside the FLNKS. Since August 2024, Dynamique Unitaire Sud (DUS) and Alternative Loyauté (AL) have been members of the FLNKS. They have now joined UC in criticising the Bougival text, with the smaller parties expressing their “incomprehension and disapproval.” A statement from DUS on 24 July said : “Overall, the draft agreement falls short of the expectations of the independence movement… the draft agreement is clearly unbalanced. The concessions made by the parties are asymmetrical: the colonial Right immediately and certainly obtains the end of any referendum related to the right to self-determination, recognised by international law, while the Kanak people are confined to an illusion of future access to full sovereignty.” Outside the FLNKS, the main pro-independence trade union confederation has also denounced the Bougival Accord. Mélanie Atapo, president of the Union syndicale des travailleurs Kanak et des exploités (USTKE) said: “USTKE unequivocally rejects the draft Bougival agreement as it stands. We refuse to allow an unbalanced agreement, imposed in haste, to jeopardise the future of our children and future generations. The thawing of the electoral rolls for political institutions constitutes a frontal attack on the principle of rebalancing the economy and directly threatens the protection of local jobs.” Pastor Höcë Léonard Var Kaemo is president of the Église Protestante de Kanaky Nouvelle-Calédonie (the main Protestant denomination in New Caledonia). Last week, in an open letter to Overseas Minister Valls, the church leader highlighted the silences of the Bougival text. “This ‘agreement’ resembles more a limited compromise, and not a sincere understanding,” he wrote. “It evokes more disappointment than dialogue. This document even ignores our name: Kanak. Not once does this word appear. A brutal negation of our millennial existence, of our presence for over 3,000 years on this land. An insult to our dignity.” The church leader also highlighted anger amongst many young Kanak towards New Caledonian politicians, especially amongst activists who faced off against French police on the barricades during six months of conflict last year (which led to 14 deaths and nearly 2600 arrests). “We are tired” Pastor Kaemo said. “A historical fatigue. The provincial elections are postponed, and the same people remain in place. And in the meantime, the youth are worried. They express themselves on social media, sometimes using alarming terms. The climate is tense, charged, almost threatening.” The growing anger amongst many independence supporters has undercut the French government’s claims that a deal had been signed, sealed and (almost) delivered. In both Paris and Noumea, French authorities will be waiting for the outcome of next weekend’s FLNKS Congress. Recognising reality, France’s Overseas Minister Manual Valls has spoken of a monitoring committee that could see the transformation of the Bougival Accord into legislation in Paris: “While waiting for the FLNKS congress, my door remains and will remain open to clarify and complete the Bougival agreement. It will be a matter of removing any ambiguity and clarifying the spirit of the agreement, which naturally calls for additions and clarifications.” Conservative anti-independence leaders like Loyalist leader Sonia Backès, President of New Caledonia’s Southern Province, are also open about the level of uncertainty created by ongoing debates about the future. In an interview with Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes, Backès noted: “Obviously, the independence movement does not see the same outcome to this agreement as we do. They will continue to fight for independence. We will continue to fight to remain French. Those who believe that because there is an agreement, there will no longer be supporters and opponents of independence – well, we would like that, but it’s not going to happen anytime soon.” “If independence supporters signed this text,” she said, “it is because they have this opportunity to move towards full sovereignty. And we signed it because we believe that that opportunity is difficult to achieve. It’s not necessarily a question of the right to vote, but rather of repopulating New Caledonia, which is an economic and security interest.” Backès’ reference to “repopulating” New Caledonia with French nationals, aiming to expand the anti-independence bloc in the South, will likely anger many Kanak. The indigenous people have been made a minority in their own land after more than 170 years of massacre, settlement and migration, even though many French nationals have emigrated over the last decade. The release of new census data last month shows New Caledonia’s population has decreased since 2014. Today, the French dependency has 264,596 inhabitants. Between the two latest censuses in 2019 and 2025, the population decreased by 6,811 inhabitants, or 1,213 fewer each year on average. By May 2025, the population in the Southern Province had decreased by 4% to 194,178 people, but increased by 2.1% in the Northern Province (50,947 inhabitants) and 1.7% in the Loyalty Islands (18,671). The two rural provinces have Kanak-majority populations, while around ¼ of the Southern Province are indigenous. Another factor generating uncertainty is that a no-confidence motion may be moved against the Bayrou government in Paris in coming months. This could derail the timetable to advance a new statute for New Caledonia, which requires a joint sitting of both houses of parliament in Paris to entrench any new agreement in the French constitution. New Caledonians are also supposed to vote in a referendum next February to adopt or reject the agreement – and in today’s fast-changing world, February is a long way off.