The economy of the region, which includes the sister cities of Kitchener, Cambridge and Waterloo, is largely dependent on the automobile. Toyota produces several models of its Lexus brand from its assembly plant in Cambridge, protected like a small fortress in the heart of an industrial park. It's surrounded by signs designed to remind unlikely walkers that they don't belong there. But it's mainly car parts that are manufactured here, for assembly plants on both sides of the Canada/US border. Some 170 smaller plants in Southern Ontario manufacture just about every component of a new vehicle, and employ over 100,000 people. Since April, the US has imposed a 25 per cent tariff on automobiles crossing the border. The same surtax is due to be imposed on auto parts from May 3, which would put a severe strain on the parts market ecosystem. Flavio Volpe, President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, doesn't believe Trump will make good on this threat, given the intractable headache it would cause between automakers and their suppliers. “Factories even had to close in the United States when the Ambassador Bridge was blocked for a few days [by the Freedom Convoy in 2022],” he recalls. Despite the uncertainties caused by multiple American about-faces, there has been no widespread shutdown of auto parts production. “For the time being,” warns Volpe. But only such a catastrophic scenario would shake Toyota, in his view, since this is the company with the strongest backbone. “If I were a supplier or an employee of Toyota of Kitchener-Waterloo, I'd be less worried than the others." Poverty already Near the invisible border between Kitchener and Waterloo, glass buildings are adorned with the logo of the American multinational Google. A light-rail transit line connects the twin cities, while homeless people try as best they can to find shelter from a sudden freezing April rain. “There are a lot more homeless people here than there used to be,” says Maggie Sanders, a retiree who invites Le Devoir to discuss politics at her home nearby. She has already decided to vote to re-elect the Green Party in her riding. She admits she “likes” Carney, but is wary of his banking background. “I think everyone should have a roof over their head. It's time we learned to help each other in this country.” Her neighbor Matt Bennett, in his early thirties, is also weighing up the possibility of voting for the smaller party, although he says he identifies more with the Conservatives. “After 10 years, I think we need a change. I don't care if it's blue, green, pink, but we need to find a new way to solve problems.” He worries that people his age can no longer afford to buy a house. The Kitchener-Centre Green campaign office on Victoria Street is buzzing with motivated volunteers. “Of course, people are anxious about the situation [between Canada and the United States]. But it's not the only issue at stake in the election,” explains Morrice in an interview. “We're in a community where there's also a lot of poverty. When I go door-to-door, people talk to me mostly about affordable housing and the price of groceries.” He was first elected in 2021, after his Liberal opponent dropped out following allegations of inappropriate conduct towards female employees. Another reason for his victory: this corner of the country is particularly fertile for the Green Party, which sent two of its representatives to Queen's Park following the Ontario provincial elections earlier this year. The weight of medium-sized towns As is the case in almost every medium-sized city in Ontario, the urban ridings of Kitchener-Waterloo have helped keep the Liberal Party in power since 2015. The Liberals won five seats there in the last election (including the nearby university town of Guelph), while conceding Kitchener-Centre to the Greens. Carney stopped by Kitchener at the very start of the election campaign, on March 26. It was there, in front of his energized supporters, that he declared he “needed a majority.” His speech was also interrupted by a demonstrator who accused him, without proof, of complicity in the sexual crimes of American businessman Jeffrey Epstein. “That's the product of divisive politics, conspiracy theories [...] that are promoted by the Conservative Party,” Carney replied. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre visited more recently, on April 10. “Here, in this incredible entrepreneurial community, one of the most inventive and innovative places on the planet, with farmers, engineers, tradespeople,” he said in introducing the region, to thunderous applause, “we can reverse the trend of the last Liberal decade.” For the moment, his party holds the ridings in the periphery, the vast territory that stretches as far as the City of London or the suburbs of Toronto. If they are to form a government, however, the Conservatives need to make further inroads in the smaller towns of Southern Ontario, such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Above all, they're hoping that the Green vote there won't collapse in favor of their Liberal opponents.