The main conservative anti-independence parties in New Caledonia have denounced French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls, after the breakdown of talks to forge a new political agreement for the Franch Pacific dependency. After a series of preliminary talks since February, Valls hoped that his third visit to New Caledonia this year would lead to agreement on a new political statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord. To begin formal negotiations, the Overseas Minister convened a three-day, closed-door “conclave” of New Caledonian leaders between 6-8 May, at a hotel in the rural town of Bourail. However, at a media conference before leaving Noumea, Valls admitted failure: “No proposal has been able to gather consensus. We must acknowledge that no agreement has been reached, which does not allow us to settle the issue of the electoral rolls, in order to stabilise New Caledonia.” The anti-independence coalition Les Loyalistes and the Rassemblement-Les Républicains party have been working together during three rounds of talks since February. A joint communique from the conservative bloc stated: “Thanks to the self-sacrifice and unity of The Loyalists and Rassemblement-LR, as well as the support of their metropolitan partners, no agreement was signed.” Progress in talks Until now, Overseas Minister Valls had succeeded in keeping all six parliamentary groups from New Caledonia engaged in roundtable talks, backed by a series of bilateral discussions, culminating in last week’s formal negotiations. Throughout this year, leaders from the two pro-independence delegations (UC-FLNKS and UNI) have continued to call for independence and sovereignty, albeit with a transitional period of “interdependence” involving the sharing of key powers between Paris and Noumea. Maintaining its call for a clear pathway to independence, the FLNKS delegation “reaffirmed its determination to complete the political task mandated for it, with the objective of Kanaky’s accession to full sovereignty and addressing issues that can no longer be avoided.” In contrast, members of the Loyalist bloc and Rassemblement have been pushing for federalism within the French Republic. This policy would give more power to the three provincial administrations in the South, North and Loyalty Islands, and restrict the authority of the central Government of New Caledonia. This attempt to give more financial resources and legislative authority to the Southern Province – a bastion of the anti-independence leadership – was seen as a partition of the islands and was opposed by the independence movement. To the anger of conservative leaders, Valls also suggested that the French State did not support elements of the federalism model: “The Loyalists’ project called into question the Noumea Accord with a federal system for the southern region, but this system would be based on federalism, which is why we could not accept it.” Loyalists block progress Angered by Valls’ more conciliatory tone in recent months, many Loyalists were opposed to the current negotiating text proposed by France, which outlined a new form of partnership between France and New Caledonia. Currently, the French State retains control of the “sovereign powers” of defence, police and courts, currency and most aspects of foreign affairs. Valls had proposed that some of these powers could be transferred to the Government and Congress of New Caledonia, but delegated back to Paris during a transitional period. The FLNKS accepted this negotiating draft as an option, stating that “it takes the form of the transfer of sovereign powers to New Caledonia, with immediate delegation to France for some of them, the establishment of dual nationality and the definition of an internationally recognised status.” Even though the FLNKS and smaller groups in the talks – UNI, Eveil océanien and Calédonie ensemble – were open to discussing this proposal, this option of some form of free association between France and New Caledonia was rejected by conservative anti-independence leaders. Rassemblement’s Virginie Ruffenach stated: “We were told about the transfer of sovereign powers, with the possible delegation from New Caledonia to the French State of the exercise of these powers. We were told about dual nationality. But then New Caledonia would no longer be a French land.” Speaking after Overseas Minister Valls left Noumea on Thursday, Loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf of the Générations NC party said: “Manuel Valls, by not respecting the choice of the New Caledonians, by not respecting democracy in New Caledonia, by giving in to violence, has made all possibilities fail. By unilaterally tabling a proposal for independence in association [with France] for New Caledonia, Manuel Valls completely killed the chances of success in the conclave.” Metzdorf, one of two New Caledonian deputies in the French National Assembly, stressed: “We have been clear from the beginning. We will never accept independence, independence in association, or a trajectory towards independence. This was not the choice of New Caledonians who have expressed themselves three times in the referendums.” Acting on decolonisation In contrast, the main independence coalition Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS) welcomed the progress in the talks, even though no consensus was forged on a way forward. Emmanuel Tjibaou, president of the largest independence party Union Calédonienne (UC) was head of the FLNKS delegation in the talks. In a statement on Friday, he highlighted the importance of France addressing its responsibility for decolonisation. “With this proposal,” Tjibaou said, “the FLNKS believes that the French State has taken a step forward to meet its responsibility and its commitments before the United Nations to decolonise the country. Nevertheless, this project will have to be consolidated, to take into account the country’s integration in its region and the unstable geopolitical context.” “This proposal is consistent with the draft FLNKS agreement submitted to the French Overseas Minister on 30 April,” he said. “In addition, it was able to receive the support of the majority of the delegations represented and constitutes a basis for the working of the consensus sought.” In contrast, the conservative anti-independence bloc has given little ground during the talks on the central issue of self-determination, rejecting any pathway to independence. Speaking after the failure of the negotiations, Nicolas Metzdorf told journalists that “we considered that independence-association had not been the choice of the New Caledonians, and that for us, it was the choice between a chaos agreement or no agreement.” For Milakulo Tukumuli, president of the Wallisian party Eveil océanien, the lack of consensus was a significant set-back. “From now on, we are in a no man’s land,” he told local journalists. “This means that we will have to wait until the second half of 2027, after the French presidential elections and the legislative elections, to have a minister who will come to reopen the New Caledonian file. After three years of vacuum, after a period where we didn’t reach a political compromise… So what will happen during these three years? Nobody knows.” In recent weeks, Manuel Valls has pointedly criticised Southern Province President and Loyalist leader Sonia Backès for her July 2024 comment that oil and water (Kanak and non-Kanak) don’t mix: “Contrary to what was said, oil and water can be mixed. We can build a land of mixture, cultures and understanding with respect for each other.” The French newspaper Le Monde has reported that both Metzdorf and Backès phoned French President Emmanuel Macron during the week, going over Valls’ head to press for changes to French government policy. Sonia Backès noted that “tomorrow there will be another minister and another proposal”, suggesting that the Loyalists are willing to block progress until there’s a new Overseas Minister. Given new elections for the French National Assembly can be called any time after 7 July, conservative leaders in Noumea may seek to wait out Valls’ tenure, and negotiate with a more compliant minister when the Bayou government collapses. As Virginie Ruffenach stressed: “Neither Rassemblement, nor The Loyalists will sign for New Caledonia’s independence, let this be very clear.” Preparing for 13 May A year ago, Noumea was wracked by riots and protests, starting on 13 May, Over six months, the crisis left 14 dead, hundreds injured, with 2,600 arrests and key Kanak leaders sent to prisons across France for pre-trial detention. The local economy has been hit hard. Last week, three French economic agencies issued a profile of the economic fallout from last year’s clashes, estimating “a decline in GDP of around 10 to 15% in 2024 (i.e. a level of GDP similar to that between 2013 and 2017). The three engines of the economy – consumption, investment and foreign trade – are thus very badly trending down.” The agencies estimate a 20-25% drop in investment in New Caledonia, noting “the decline in economic activity is reflected in a 28% drop in imports of goods and a sharp fall in nickel sales, with an even sharper 40.5% drop in exports.” After a disastrous year for French policy, France has appointed Jacques Billant as the new French High Commissioner in New Caledonia, replacing Louis Le Franc who left on 2 May. As the first anniversary of 13 May approaches, Billant has issued a decree banning all marches, demonstrations, rallies and processions in Noumea from 8-16 May. To maintain “community order” in the days around the anniversary, France has deployed 2,600 police, paramilitary gendarmes and anti-terrorist RAID officers, backed by Centaure armoured cars. Billant said: “I want the security forces to be mobile and visible in the neighbourhoods, especially those of Greater Noumea, and above all that they are ready to intervene throughout the territory of New Caledonia.” In coming weeks, the French government must decide whether to press ahead with a new statute, in the face of Loyalist opposition. But ongoing political uncertainty is unsettling the business community and delaying economic reconstruction. The next provincial elections will be held on 30 November, but planned reforms to electoral rolls can only be legislated if there is a consensus agreement amongst New Caledonian leaders. Despite convergence on many technical issues during recent talks, the fundamental issue of political independence and sovereignty remains a stumbling block. A new generation of Kanak activists – steeled by last year’s clashes – will not easily give up their vision of an independent Kanaky-New Caledonia.