Morning everyone. Today we look at a One Nation candidate who has promoted Covid and climate conspiracy theories, and whose preferences could decide a crucial regional seat after a deal with the Nationals. The US economy has shrunk amid the Trump tariff panic, Amyl and the Sniffers were the stars of last night’s Apra awards, and we reveal how Gout Gout’s coach overcame adversity to move into the national spotlight. Amyl and the Sniffers have won the top gong at the Australian Performing Rights Association awards, winning song of the year last night for their track U Should Not Be Doing That.A “handshake” deal by the Nationals to move One Nation up its preference list could help win the New South Wales electorate of Hunter despite concerns about Pauline Hanson’s candidate, who has promoted a conspiracy theory that the climate crisis has been used to control every aspect of people’s lives.The Coalition will release its long-awaited policy costings today, claiming that they will show the budget would be more than $10bn better off and debt would be $40bn lower over the next four years than under Labor. A re-elected Coalition government would have to slash net migration of students and temporary skilled workers by 90% to reach its “impossibly heroic” goal of reducing net migration to 160,000 next financial year, Guardian analysis shows. And our election editorial argues that if progressives want bolder government they should consider voting for the Greens, teals or other alternatives in the hope of electing a minority Labor government with a progressive crossbench.Voters have been infuriated by a deluge of unsolicited text messages from Clive Palmer’s party. The man behind the messaging campaign – H Fong, “a highly respected barrister” – authorised them but says he did not send them.Women with endometriosis face a higher risk of premature and early menopause and are seven times more likely to experience surgical menopause, a study has found. The US is treading the path followed by democracies that descended into authoritarianism and dictatorship, former ambassadors to countries that underwent autocratic takeovers have warned. It came as Donald Trump lashed out at a journalist in a tense TV interview to mark 100 days of his second term in office. A federal judge in Vermont has ordered the release of Mohsen Mahdawi, a Palestinian green-card holder and Columbia student held without charge for two weeks.The US economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year as Donald Trump sought to roll out an aggressive trade strategy, claiming that sweeping tariffs on the world would strengthen the country.A new wave of tactical voting could hamper progress for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in local elections taking place on Thursday, campaigners believe, with even some Tories saying they will vote Labour or Liberal Democrat.At least 11 people have died in clashes in a town near Damascus as tension continues between Syria’s new Islamist government and the Druze minority.A jury has been shown footage of what prosecutors say is the moment the Sycamore Gap tree next to Hadrian’s Wall crashed to the ground after being felled by a shadowy figure wielding a revving chainsaw. Back to Back Barries: final election night predictions In this special pre-election episode, co-hosts Tony Barry and Barrie Cassidy pull apart the final messages of the campaign, delve into the polling and deliver their last verdicts on how they think it will play out on Saturday night. Renters in battleground electorates in western Sydney, outer Melbourne and Perth are among those feeling the most financial pressure, new analysis shows, with rents in some Sydney suburbs equal to nearly half the average local income. So why have the major parties been so quiet about helping renters? Not the news Gout Gout and Di Sheppard make an unlikely pair. One is the teenage sprint sensation who is on track to become the face of the Brisbane Olympics while the other is his 60-year-old coach whose life has been defined by adversity. Jack Snape talks to her about guiding the Ipswich sensation, overcoming trauma, and why becoming a more recognisable figure means she might lose her “fuck-off aura”. Jannik Sinner considered quitting tennis amid the fallout from his doping case, he has said as he prepares for the Italian Open. The former world No 1 Novak Djokovic has pulled out of the same competition after a poor run of form. Alex de Minaur is in action at the Madrid Open this morning against Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti.English rugby’s governing body – infamously dubbed “57 old farts” by Will Carling – is likely to be scrapped in a radical governance shake-up.Barcelona host Inter this morning in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final. Media roundup A new poll shows Peter Dutton needs a “miracle” to win Saturday’s election, the Daily Telegraph reports, with the Trump and nuclear factors proving decisive in turning voters away from the Coalition. Anthony Albanese is sticking by his plan to slug big super balances to pay for his spending pledges, the Australian reports. Schools in Hobart have tightened security amid concerns about a spike in youth crime, according to the Mercury. What’s happening today Victorian energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio, AEMO chief Daniel Westerman and Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean speak at the CEDA climate and energy summit.Two-day interlocutory hearing in Ben Roberts-Smith’s appeal against defamation findings.Archibald prize finalists announced. If you would like to receive this Morning Mail update to your email inbox every weekday, sign up here, or finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter. You can follow the latest in US politics by signing up for This Week in Trumpland. Brain teaser And finally, here are the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.