Zimbabwe, once hailed as the breadbasket of Africa, is now grappling with profound political and economic challenges. Recent efforts by President Emmerson Mnangagwa to reset relations with the United States and the internal political rift that seems to be developing between Mnangagwa and Vice President Constantine Chiwenga raise questions about Zimbabwe’s future. Compounding these political uncertainties is the dire economic situation that has left many Zimbabweans destitute. Considering the many challenges that Zimbabwe faces, the landscape of Zimbabwe’s future is uncharted territory. Resetting, or Upsetting, Diplomatic Relations? In April, Mnangagwa announced that he would suspend tariffs on goods imported from the United States to build a positive relationship with President Donald Trump’s administration. This is a significant shift in Zimbabwe’s diplomatic strategy. Historically, the US-Zimbabwe relationship has been tense, marked by sanctions and political estrangement. Given the transactional nature of the Trump Administration, Mnangagwa’s overtures could potentially lead to a thaw in relations, opening avenues for economic assistance and investment, especially in the minerals sector. Zimbabwe reportedly sits on seventeen rare earth elements widely used in automobiles, electronic devices, and military technology. China’s current dominance of Zimbabwe’s mining industry makes the potential of US access to the minerals mentioned above an attractive prospect. However, Mnangagwa’s overtures to the United States risk alienating Zimbabwe’s traditional Southern African Development Community (SADC) allies. The delicate balance between pursuing new diplomatic relations while maintaining regional solidarity is a critical challenge to Mnangagwa’s administration. There is also the danger of blowback from China. While trade between the United States and Zimbabwe is negligible, amounting to less than $100 million annually, China is one of Zimbabwe’s largest trade partners, with exports of $1.3 billion last year. China has invested heavily in significant infrastructure development in Zimbabwe in the past two decades. China also offers tariff-free exports from Zimbabwe, while the Trump administration has yet to respond to Mnangagwa’s olive branch. With Zimbabwe’s current economic situation, losing China’s support could be catastrophic. Internal Power Struggles The growing rift between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga adds another layer of complexity to Zimbabwe’s political dynamics. Chiwenga, who played a pivotal role in Mnangagwa’s rise to power following the coup that ousted long-time President Robert Mugabe, has shown signs of discord with the current president. At the Zimbabwe African National Union – Popular Front (ZANU–PF) party conference in December 2024, officials loyal to Chiwenga were blocked from attending, and Mnangagwa loyalists forced through a resolution calling for a constitutional amendment that would allow Mnangagwa to hold on to power beyond 2028 when his second term ends. The rift threatens to destabilize ZANU–PF and undermine governmental unity. The struggle for power within the party could lead to heightened political tensions and potential shifts in leadership. The worst-case scenario is that the military, which is Zimbabwe’s ultimate power broker, could intervene as they did in 2017 when they ousted Mugabe, plunging the country even deeper into political chaos. The Threat to Regional Relations Mnangagwa’s pivot towards improving relations with the United States has raised concerns about Zimbabwe’s position within SADC. The regional organization, a critical Zimbabwe support system, might view these overtures with suspicion. Balancing international diplomacy with regional commitments is essential for Zimbabwe to maintain its influence and support within SADC. The outcome of any perceived betrayal or shift in allegiance could be substantial, impacting Zimbabwe’s economic aid, trade agreements, and regional solidarity. The damage has already been done, and if Trump rebuffs or ignores Mnangagwa’s peace offering, Zimbabwe could find itself isolated. Holes in Zimbabwe’s Market Basket Zimbabwe is currently facing a wide range of economic issues, from an unstable currency to massive unemployment and poverty. Zimbabwe’s economy is in disarray, with currency instability a significant issue. The country’s reliance on multiple currencies, including the US dollar and the South African rand, has not stabilized the economic environment. Hyperinflation and a lack of confidence in the local currency exacerbate the financial upheaval. The government’s attempts to introduce a new currency have been met with skepticism, as memories of past currency failures remain. The economic crisis has led to soaring unemployment and pervasive poverty. Many Zimbabweans are forced to struggle for basic necessities, and the disparity between the wealthy elite and the impoverished, always a point of contention, is now Grand Canyon-wide and continues to grow. Once the backbone of the economy, the agricultural sector has been devastated by land reforms and mismanagement, leading to food insecurity and reduced agricultural output. Mnangagwa’s outreach to the United States could open doors for economic aid and investment, potentially alleviating some of Zimbabwe’s economic woes. However, this is a risky strategy that, if it fails, could further destabilize a fragile economy. Building trust with international investors and ensuring transparency in economic policies are essential steps for Zimbabwe at this juncture to attract foreign investment and support. What are the Social Implications? The economic crisis has had a severe impact on healthcare and education. Hospitals and clinics are underfunded and lack essential supplies, leading to a decline in the delivery of healthcare services. The education system faces significant challenges, including inadequate funding, teacher shortages, and deteriorating infrastructure. These issues contribute to a continuing cycle of poverty and limit opportunities for future generations. As has happened in previous economic and political crises, Zimbabweans have been seeking better opportunities outside the country. With skilled professionals leaving the country, this brain drain further weakens the economic and social services. This loss of human capital is a critical issue that Zimbabwe must address if it is to rebuild. What Might the Future Hold? Zimbabwe’s political future depends heavily on resolving the internal power struggles within ZANU–PF and maintaining a balanced diplomatic approach. If Mnangagwa can navigate these challenges successfully, there is potential for political stability. However, if the country is to achieve long-term stability, it is essential to strengthen democratic institutions and promote inclusive governance. Economic recovery will be even more daunting. It will require comprehensive strategies that address currency stability, unemployment, and poverty. Engaging with international partners for financial aid and investment will be crucial, while ensuring transparency and accountability. Revitalizing the agricultural sector and promoting industrialization can provide sustainable economic growth and employment opportunities. Balancing outreach to the United States with maintaining strong SADC ties is vital to Zimbabwe’s future. Solidifying regional alliances while pursuing broader international relations can provide Zimbabwe with a multifaceted approach to economic and political development. Ensuring diplomatic outreach to international partners without compromising Zimbabwe’s position in SADC will be crucial. Social development and long-term economic stability will require investments in healthcare and education. Zimbabwe must also address the root causes of migration and brain drain by improving living conditions and providing opportunities within the country to retain skilled professionals. Fostering social cohesion and unity is critical for rebuilding the country. Zimbabwe is at a crossroads, with its future shaped by complex political and economic dynamics. Mnangagwa’s overtures to Trump, the internal rift with Chiwenga, and the dire financial situation pose significant challenges. With strategic diplomatic efforts, comprehensive economic recovery plans, and focused social development initiatives, it is possible for Zimbabwe to navigate these turbulent waters and sail towards a stable and prosperous future. The country’s resilience and determination will be key to overcoming its many obstacles and forging a smooth path forward. Charles A. Ray, a member of the Board of Trustees and Chair of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, served as US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe. This was first published here.