The 2025 NFL Draft is just two weeks away, and the best Michigan sportsbooks are starting to release more NFL Draft betting odds. In addition to bets like the Detroit Lions first position drafted, one intriguing NFL Draft betting market is over/under bets on first-round picks from each conference. Sportsbooks like DraftKings and Caesars offer odds for each of the Power Four conferences – the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC. Last year, the SEC once again led the way with 11 first-rounders, including three in the top 10. The Pac-12 was second with eight, the Big Ten and ACC each had four, and the Big 12 had three. The massive conference realignment last summer had a big impact on how those numbers look in retrospect. If you re-allocate those picks to the conferences where each school now aligns, the SEC would now have 14 (gain of 3), the Big Ten would have 10 (+6), and the Big 12 would have three (-2). While the SEC still dominates in this category, the Big Ten has closed the gap under the new alignment. If you include players from Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, the Big Ten has had 10 first-round picks in each of the last four drafts. Let’s see what the betting odds say about whether that streak will continue, and whether there are any good bets to make in this market. Over/Under Big Ten players drafted in first round Here are the current odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for each of the Power Four conferences, as of April 11: Adding up these lines, the oddsmakers project 31 of the 32 first-round picks to come from the Power Four conferences. In most drafts, there is usually at least one first-round pick from a non-power conference. Last year, there were two: Notre Dame’s Joe Alt and Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell. This year, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is a lock for the first round from the Mountain West, while Marshall’s Mike Green is expected to be the first first-round pick from the Sun Belt since 2008 (Troy’s Leodis McKelvin). North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel also has a chance to make it three players from outside the Power Four to go in the first round. That leaves either 29 or 30 picks to be split between the four major conferences, which means at least one of the conferences will hit the under at the current odds. That makes sense considering three of the four conferences have significant juice on the under. Will the Big Ten be one of the conferences that goes under its number? To get an idea of how to bet on this market, we need to take a close look at the players who are projected to be first-round picks. Big Ten players with first-round projections Based on an analysis of player rankings and mock drafts from trusted NFL Draft experts, I’ve compiled a list of all the Big Ten players who have a chance to be drafted in the first round this year. I’ve sorted these players into four categories to describe their likelihood of going in the first round: Lock, Likely, Toss Up, and Longshot. Here is my list of potential Big Ten first-round picks in 2025: To summarize, that is three locks, five likely, four toss ups, and five longshots. If the locks and likely picks are accurate, then there would need to be two players selected from the other nine possible first-rounders. Of course, it’s worth noting there are often players who are deemed likely first-rounders, maybe even locks, but end up falling to Day Two. That’s why I was somewhat conservative with who I deemed a true first-round lock. For example, many analysts might consider Michigan’s Colston Loveland to be a lock, but is it crazy to think he could fall out of Round 1? It’s realistic that teams could prioritize other positions with higher perceived value like wide receiver, cornerback, offensive and defensive lineman, and of course quarterback. Will Johnson and Josh Simmons are two players who would probably be surefire first-round locks if they had no injury issues, but they do. According to reports, neither player’s injury is expected to be an issue long-term, but medical red flags are the least transparent aspect of a prospect’s profile, and it’s one of the more common reasons that players could drop unexpectedly. Breaking down Big Ten toss ups With that being said, if you want to take the Over on Big Ten first-round picks, you would need to feel confident that at least two players I considered toss ups or longshots will sneak into Round 1, and possibly three to account for the possibility of a likely player falling. A case for the Over is that all four of the toss ups play positions that tend to get pushed up draft boards: defensive line, offensive line, and wide receiver. Those also happen to be positions that are needs for several teams at the end of the first round, like the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles. Donovan Jackson appears to be the most likely “toss up” to be picked in the top 32. He is a plug-and-play starting guard with some versatility to play tackle in a pinch, which he did for the Buckeyes this season after Simmons’ injury. His high floor and versatility could be appealing to teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia late in the first round. Kenneth Grant and Emeka Egbuka are the next two most likely toss ups to end up going in round one, but both have knocks against them that could push them down. Grant is a pure nose tackle with great size and athleticism, but he had some conditioning issues at Michigan and lacked the consistent power that you would expect from his profile. If teams don’t see pass-rush upside and view him as mostly an early-down run stuffer, that’s not usually a first-round target. Egbuka is a polished receiver with elite production as OSU’s all-time receptions leader. He might be the safest wide receiver to project in this draft, but the knock on him is limited upside given he is primarily a slot receiver who lacks breakaway speed. Egbuka’s lack of top-end speed is not necessarily a dealbreaker in the first round, especially since there are only a few wide receivers consistently ranked ahead of Egbuka in most rankings. Egbuka is a true toss up. Best bet for total Big Ten players drafted in first round Best bet: Over 9.5 Big Ten players drafted in the first round (+140 at DraftKings) The last thing to consider before placing any bets on this market is looking at the full picture of first-round caliber players. How many locks and likely first-rounders are there overall, and how many spots are up for grabs? That is important context for evaluating the likelihood of two fringe Big Ten prospects getting picked. The table below includes the total number of players I placed in each category from all four conferences, plus the non-power conferences. To summarize, that is 29 locks and likely first-rounders, leaving just three spots for the 24 toss ups and longshots. There could be one or two more spots available if some of the likely players fall, which is certainly possible as discussed above. Every “toss up” plays either offensive or defensive line, wide receiver, or cornerback, so the four Big Ten candidates do not have any advantage in terms of positional value. Of the toss ups from other conferences, there are several prospects that are at least as likely to go in the first round as the Big Ten players. Former Missouri WR Luther Burden III is generally ranked higher than Egbuka and offers a higher ceiling thanks to his explosive play potential. Tyler Booker and Grey Zabel are similar plug-and-play interior OL prospects as Jackson, but without the same tackle/guard versatility. How many Big Ten players get picked will really come down to how the teams at the end of the first round rank these fringe players, which is of course very difficult to predict. At -175 odds, I don’t like the value on the under for this bet, which is why my best bet is the over.