Nigeria’s economy has been hit with a fresh challenge as the price of crude oil dropped by $10 per barrel, raising concerns about the country’s financial stability and budget performance. The drop in oil price was triggered by new tariffs introduced by United States President Donald Trump, who imposed at least 10% tariffs, sparking fears of a global trade war. This led to a selloff in the oil market, bringing Brent crude down by $10.05 to close at $64.90 per barrel on Friday. Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights described the situation as negative for global oil demand and oil prices. They warned that the current tension in international trade could reduce oil consumption globally. Adding to Nigeria’s woes, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced that eight member countries will begin increasing their oil production in May. The group plans to ease their voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by adding 411,000 bpd to the market. For Nigeria, this development is troubling. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2025 national budget is based on an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million bpd. With oil now below $65 and production still below quota, these projections are at serious risk. OPEC data shows that Nigeria has recently produced around 1.47 million bpd—far below its 1.8 million bpd quota—due to issues like pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment in the oil sector. Oil contributes about 90% of Nigeria’s export income and 60% of government revenue. A fall in oil prices affects the country’s ability to fund major projects and social programmes. The government may be forced to borrow more money, worsening the already high debt burden. This comes at a time when Nigerians are already dealing with high inflation, a weak naira, and a petrol import bill of over N1.2 trillion every month, following the removal of fuel subsidy. The fall in oil price and low output means Nigeria is earning less from its most important resource—an economic blow that could impact the country in the coming months.