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20 Mar, 2025
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Putin's Big Comeback
@Source: newsweek.com
The phone call between Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump has marked the latest chapter in the rehabilitation of the Russian president spearheaded by his U.S. counterpart.After Tuesday's 90-minute conversation, Putin agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war he started but stopped short of backing a full truce.There had been anticipation over whether Trump could make good on his repeated pledge to end the war quickly and moves by the U.S. president have been criticized as rewarding Putin's aggression.These include pausing intelligence and military assistance to Ukraine, shutting its charity arm USAID and ending funding for a Yale University unit gathering evidence of Russian crimes of aggression.Trump also said in February that Russia should rejoin the Group of 7 (G7) advanced economies it was suspended from following Putin's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.Why It MattersAfter three years of being shunned by the West, which has imposed heavy sanctions on Russia, Putin will be boosted by Trump's engagement with him, especially with co-operation between the U.S. and Russia in economic areas such as rare earths and the Arctic being discussed.What To KnowAfter the phone call, the Kremlin said Putin had accepted a U.S. proposal for a partial 30-day ceasefire in the war against Ukraine although he did not commit to a broader ceasefire pushed by Washington.Russian investigative journalist and security services expert, Andrei Soldatov, told Newsweek that both Trump and Putin got what they wanted.Trump can claim he had got a ceasefire—even if in name only—while Putin has positioned himself to extract more from Ukraine as if his army was winning the war and he could dictate the conditions, Soldatov said.Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Chatham House think tank in London, said the phone call marked the latest stage in the Trump administration's rehabilitation of U.S. ties with Russia.Before the call, Trump had already surrendered to Russia in cyberspace, dismantled levers of soft power like USAID and shut down war crimes investigations, Giles told Newsweek.But the difference in the Russian and U.S. readouts of the call show there is not yet an agreed cease-fire he said. They also suggest Russia has put additional demands on Ukraine the U.S. may or may not have already acquiesced to, to force Ukraine to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, he added."The suggestion that Trump has been played by Putin assumes that Trump is not doing this deliberately," Giles said, "and that's a brave assumption at the moment."Only hours after the call, Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of reneging on any deal with both reporting strikes on energy infrastructure.Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky said Putin's comments about stopping attacks were "at odds with reality" following an overnight barrage of drone strikes across Ukraine.In turn, Russia's Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of undermining a pause on attacks by launching drones at an oil depot in the southern Krasnodar region.Putin Still 'Radioactive' ElsewhereAurélien Colson, a professor at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business said that even if Putin can benefit from better ties with the U.S, he remains "radioactive" for most leaders in Europe as well as in Canada, Australia and South Korea.His comeback to the G7 has also been barred despite attempts by Trump and so diplomatic respectability might be beyond reach for Putin personally, Colson told Newsweek.Even with an international arrest warrant for war crimes linked to the abduction of Ukrainian children, Putin was never a global persona non grata given his influence in groups like BRICS and CIS (Council of Independent States) and OPEC Plus, Roger Hilton, defense research fellow at the Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC.But Tuesday's call shows that Putin's diplomatic rehabilitation is underway as well as the path to eventually remove its partial pariah status, he said.Hilton believes the call will remove any hesitation or stigma countries might have previously had about dealing with Putin bilaterally, potentially leading to more foreign leader visits to Russia, or abroad for Putin.Cédomir Nestorovic, co-director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business said Putin can claim victory with the call as he did not accept a ceasefire and only promised to stop bombing infrastructure in Ukraine. He also made demands that cannot be accepted, such as stopping aid to Ukraine.What People Are SayingAndrei Soldatov, senior fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis: "Both of them got what they wanted—Trump got his 'ceasefire' which is not really a ceasefire, and Putin positioned himself to extract more and more from Ukraine as if his army was winning the war and he could dictate the conditions."Keir Giles, Chatham House: "They (the Trump administration) explicitly said that the objective is to restart relations with Russia and everything that the Trump administration has done with regard to Europe helps Russia."What Happens NextBoth sides have agreed to continue talking, with more negotiations scheduled for Sunday in Saudi Arabia, according to Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff.Nestorovic said this when the real negotiations between the two teams will start. Europe and Ukraine have been completely sidelined and there is no indication that they will participate in future negotiations.
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