Hours after Lee Jae-myung was sworn in as the president of South Korea early on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping extended a congratulatory message, emphasising that China placed “great importance” on strengthening ties with its neighbour amid an increasingly uncertain global landscape. During his campaign, Lee pledged to repair strained ties with China and North Korea and underscored China’s role as a vital trading partner. Analysts predicted more stable China-South Korea relations to come, saying Lee’s foreign policy would be marked by “pragmatism”, flexibility and economic urgency – a departure from former president Yoon Suk-yeol, who steered the country to align more with the United States. However, diplomatic observers also cautioned that any improvement might be constrained by South Korea’s delicate position within two “triangles”: the China-South Korea-Japan dynamic and the South Korea-Japan-US alliance. They said his ambition to maintain a balanced approach between Beijing and Washington would still be tested. Da Zhigang, researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at the Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, said Lee was likely to seek a more “balanced and flexible” approach to China that pursued South Korean domestic interests, compared with Yoon’s more ideological and nationalistic approach. Yoon joined initiatives such as the Chip 4 Alliance – a coalition of the US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan aimed at reducing dependence on mainland China for semiconductor supply chains. South Korea relies on the US, its military ally, to deter North Korea. But China has been Seoul’s biggest trade partner for two decades, as well as its biggest export market and top source of imports. South Korea became China’s second-largest trading partner in 2022. The mutual dependence between South Korea and China in semiconductor supply chains has continued to increase, according to Da, who urged deeper industrial and supply chain cooperation between the two countries. “Such cooperation [with China] will help Seoul maintain its edge in key industries such as semiconductors, new materials and automobiles,” he said. Zhang Yun, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, predicted there would be more interactions and engagements between Beijing and Seoul “based on pragmatism” with bigger room for economic cooperation. Zhang noted that China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) had finalised negotiations on upgrading a free-trade pact, which had “put pressure on Northeast Asia”, and Seoul would risk losses if it did not join the wave of regional integration early. “Stabilising and even upgrading economic relations with China is a key tool for Lee to address his country’s faltering economy … Meanwhile, the potential of economic benefits is enormous for Seoul if it can integrate into the broader China-Asean market,” Zhang said. He added that Lee – whose country could face steep US tariffs on cars, steel and other exports vital for its export-driven economy – had no reason to risk straining relations with China. Nevertheless, Seoul is expected to maintain its robust alliance with Washington as the foundation of its foreign policy under Lee’s administration, potentially creating complex diplomatic challenges for Seoul as the US pushes for closer policy coordination from allies in a bid to contain China. “We will reinforce the Korea-US alliance, strengthen trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan and approach relations with neighbouring countries through the lens of practicality and national interest,” Lee said during his inaugural speech on Wednesday. Zhang said the China-South Korea-Japan dynamic was energised by economic interests, while the South Korea-Japan-US alliance was purely driven by geopolitical and security considerations. “These two triangles are actually in a competitive relationship. For Lee, achieving balance between them may prove to be quite challenging,” Zhang said. The Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Beijing had always “opposed taking sides and forming camps” and was willing to work with Seoul to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations. The country is also facing an unpredictable US policy. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Washington was considering a partial withdrawal of US troops from South Korea. Around 4,500 troops – 16 per cent of the US Forces Korea (USFK) – could be redeployed to other Indo-Pacific locations. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has pressured South Korea to increase its financial contributions for hosting American troops stationed on its soil. Ryu Yong-wook, a China and Korea affairs specialist at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said that Beijing and Seoul could boost ties in areas that did not relate to national security, such as cultural exchanges. “However, as the US continues to expand its scope of national security concerns, it will significantly limit potential bilateral cooperation between Seoul and Beijing in almost all areas,” he added. Ryu argued that it would be a “very tricky balancing act” for Lee. “If misplayed, Lee’s ‘pragmatic’ diplomacy could end up weakening the US-ROK alliance, while degenerating South Korea to become a pawn in the great power strategic game.” Lee’s Democratic Party seems determined to avoid entangling South Korea in the Taiwan issue. When asked by Time magazine if he would come to Taiwan’s aid if it were under attack by Beijing, he cryptically said he would answer when “aliens are about to invade the Earth”. Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Most countries, including South Korea and the US, do not recognise it as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the island by force. Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an associate professor at the Tokyo International University Institute for International Strategy, said this approach was part of Lee’s balanced diplomacy. “But [there is] also the shared concerns among the security community in South Korea that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could involve expectations for Seoul to take part, or the US using the USFK to deal with the contingency, consequently weakening [South Korea] and [the US’] defence against North Korea.”