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Spokane vs. Portland Winterhawks: Western Conference Championship preview
@Source: oregonlive.com
What: a best-of-7 Western Hockey League Western Conference Championship Series between the Portland Winterhawks (44-34-3-1) and Spokane (53-23-1-2).
It’s 2nd vs. 5th in terms of seeing in the West. By regular season standings, it’s 4th vs. 12th. 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 12th made the Final Four.
Portland, of course, is on a Cinderella run. They’ve had back-to-back 7-game wins, winning both Game 7s on the road, overcoming a 12-point regular season advantage to the Prince George Cougars and a 28-point advantage to the Everett Silvertips.
Spokane had a moderately easy 5-game win in the 1st round over Vancouver, then had a 6-game win over Victoria where they won 3 games in overtime. They had home ice advantage in both series.
Spokane won the season series 4 games to 2, but it means even less than usual. Spokane’s big guns were only together for the final game, a 7-3 win in Portland.
The teams have met in the playoffs 12 times. Portland has won 8. The series has gone the maximum 6 times, many of those classics.
The schedule
Game 1, Friday 4/25: Portland at Spokane, 7pm PDT
Game 2, Sunday 4/27: Portland at Spokane, 5pm PDT
Game 3, Wednesday 4/30: Spokane at Portland, 7pm PDT
Game 4, Thursday 5/1: Spokane at Portland, 7pm PDT
Game 5, Saturday 5/3: Spokane at Portland, 6pm PDT (if necessary)
Game 6, Monday 5/5: Portland at Spokane, 7pm PDT (if necessary)
Game 7, Tuesday 5/6: Portland at Spokane, 7pm PDT (if necessary)
Spokane Arena is booked the weekend after the coming one, so we get the 2-3-2 format. The games are spaced out pretty well, compared to these 4-games-in-5-days runs we usually see.
I found 3 teams that have done something similar to what Portland has done in these playoffs, win the first 2 rounds as big underdogs (at least in terms of points): the 1996 Prince George Cougars, the 2005 Prince Albert Raiders, and the 2007 Prince George Cougars. None of those teams had a 7-game series to deal with; in fact, all 3 of those had at least one series sweep. By grinding out two 7-game series, winning 2 Game 7s on the road, the Winterhawks have done something truly unique.
They’ll have to keep that uniqueness going. Those other 3 Cinderellas hit midnight in the 3rd round.
They were doing well before, but their team was defined at the trade deadline by the acquisition of Andrew Cristall by Kelowna. They now have a virtually unstoppable top line of Berkly Catton, Cristall, and Shea Van Olm, all over 2 points a game with Catton and Cristall about 2.5. They’ve pretty much just run over teams in the 2nd half.
They’re not weak anywhere else, but they’ll go as far as those 3 can take them.
The players
Playoff experience in games is Portland 508, Spokane 346.
Keys to the series
Slowing down, at least a little bit, Spokane’s top line. They just can’t go for 2.5 points a game if the Winterhawks are to be in the series.Tyson Jugnauth. The leading scorer this season for defensemen. No one has stopped him yet; can Spokane slow him down by occupying him on defense?The goalies. Ondrej Štěbeták came up big at the end of the Prince George series and most of the Everett round. If that’s a new skill level, that’s huge for Portland, but it’s a big question. Dawson Cowan is at .875 for the playoffs and .863 last series, a remarkable number for a 6-game win over a quality team. It’s another one where, when the playoffs started, you give the edge to Portland’s opponent, but now it’s not clear.The B-level defensemen. Take out Jugnauth and Crampton, and you could make a case for ranking the next 3 defensemen for each team in about any order. How will it sort out?The shots. Cristall and Van Olm each have shooting percentages over .200. It’s hard to see Portland winning if they get outshot in all games, and by over 10 in most games, like against Everett.
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