Michel de Nostredame (1503-66), better known as Nostradamus, is often hailed as one of the most successful prophets of all time. Said to have foreseen major world events from the rise of Hitler to COVID, the 16th-century astrologer was recently credited with predicting Pope Francis’s death – and what would happen next. ‘Through the death of a very old Pontiff A Roman of good age will be elected. Of him it will be said that he weakens his seat But long will he sit in biting activity. Like all the quatrains in Nostradamus’s collection of prophecies, Les Prophéties (1555-68), this one is as enigmatic as it is flexible. Short, sweet and decontextualised, his prophetic poems feel timeless, and it is deliciously satisfying to recognise a real-world correlation. The problem is that his prophecies are so vague that they can be linked to any number of events – or old Pontiffs. Nostradamus’s “dark and cryptic” language was intentional. If he had been more explicit, not only his career, but perhaps even his life, may have been at risk. Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here. Many of his prophecies concerned the rise and fall of the great and the good, and political prophecy was a high-risk business. In ancient Rome, astrologers had been expelled from the city for forecasting the death of emperors, and Renaissance leaders were no less paranoid. To avoid “scandalising and upsetting”, Nostradamus chose to veil his true meaning. This was not just a matter of self-preservation, but also a way to obscure politically explosive information. Claiming to know when a civic or church leader might die was valuable intelligence. This made astrology a key tool of Renaissance spy-craft, but also a dangerous weapon that needed to be monitored and regulated. Astrology, politics and the papal court As a system that promised to forecast plagues, natural disasters, war, and even the economy, astrology was a logical interest for Renaissance rulers. Universities taught their students how to make these predictions, and for some lucky graduates this led to a job in a royal, princely, or even papal court. Here their horoscopes could inform political decision-making and produce potent astrological propaganda. Despite the condemnations of theologians, many popes patronised astrologers and sought their guidance. Julius II (1443-1513) chose the start date for the construction of Saint Peter’s Basilica based on astrological counsel. Leo X (1475-1521) founded a professorship in astrology at Rome’s first university, La Sapienza. And Paul III (1468-1549), heeding the judgment of the astrologer Luca Gaurico, appointed his grandson a cardinal at just 14. In a period in which popes could have a decisive impact on international politics, speculation about the health of the pontiff was rampant. Astrologers capitalised on this. When Ludovico Sforza (1452-1508), de facto ruler of Milan, asked his astrologer to predict the death of Innocent VIII, it was nothing unusual. The answer was that the pope would die around August 10 1492, if not sooner. When Innocent died on July 25, Ludovico was no doubt pleased. As the historian Monica Azzolini has shown, he had consulted his astrologer in the hope the next pope would be more supportive of his illegitimate regime. Some popes asked astrologers about their own deaths. But they didn’t like it so much when others did so – especially when the forecasts were made public. Even worse, such predictions often fed into Protestant propaganda. Popes knew public predictions about their death were politically destabilising, not to mention humiliating. At the end of 1559, the Index of Prohibited Books, a list of books forbidden by the Roman Catholic Church, banned texts containing astrological “divinations” about “future contingent events”. Earlier that year, just as Pope Paul IV was trying to conceal a serious illness from the public, the sighting of a comet had led to widespread speculation about his death. As the pope knew all too well, astrology could be a political liability. Orazio Morandi and Urban VIII Such legislation did not stop astrologers from making political predictions, not least because their clients never stopped asking. But increasingly these astrologers were playing with fire. As the historian Brendan Dooley has shown, Orazio Morandi learned this the hard way in 1630. Morandi was an abbot at the monastery of Santa Prassede in Rome. He had been practising astrology for years, and he had been careful, framing his political forecasts in allusive language. But soon he went too far. In 1629, Morandi wrote an astrological commentary on various past papacies, critiquing their flaws. When he came to the present incumbent, Urban VIII (1568-1644), he not only predicted that his pro-French allies would destroy Italy, but that the pope himself would very soon suffer great violence, then death. There are several astrological techniques for predicting someone’s death. As above, astronomical phenomena like comets and eclipses could prompt speculation about an upcoming papal demise. But Morandi used the gold standard – a technique called “prorogation”. This required access to the person’s birth chart, from which astrologers could identify the planets or luminaries that were their “giver of life” and “giver of years”. Different planets gave different lifespans. For example, if the sun was your “giver of years”, and it was in a good position on your horoscope, you might expect to live to 120. If the sun was badly placed, your life expectancy might be just 19 years. Other parts of the horoscope could then modify these figures. Morandi identified the sun as Urban’s life giver. But the positions of the more nefarious planets on his birth chart meant he was lucky to have lived beyond the age of seven. In June 1630, Morandi concluded, a solar eclipse would seal the pope’s fate. Morandi’s prediction spread widely in clandestine circles, and it wasn’t long until his prediction was reported as fact. The pro-Spanish faction in Rome was thrilled. It was even rumoured that Spanish and German cardinals had begun the long journey to Rome for a new conclave. Embarrassingly, Urban first learned of the prophecy not through his own informants, but from the powerful French prelate Cardinal Richelieu. Himself an avid believer in astrology, Urban was greatly disturbed. He had Morandi arrested and jailed. During the trial, a young man called Matteo, servant to the current prior of Santa Prassede, was interrogated and tortured. Morandi himself soon died in prison under suspicious circumstances. But Urban lived on. The next year, he decreed it punishable by death to predict “the life or death of the sitting Roman Pontiff, including his blood relatives to the third degree inclusive”. Making a career in political forecasting was – and is – risky. But astrologers were ambitious and knew their efforts would be well remunerated. Predicting the death of a pope could help you quickly build a public profile, expanding your business. But after 1630, it was a risk many astrologers were no longer willing to take.