The end of the regular season means it’s time for some uncomfortable truths. Despite the perceived performance benefits of cutting the Rebels, the four remaining Australian sides have actually won fewer games against the Kiwis this year. They have won seven this year compared to nine last year, with the discrepancy explained by both the Reds and Brumbies flipping from a 3-2 trans-Tasman winning record in 2024 to a 2-3 losing one. While the early-season narrative was one of Australian improvement, it quietly flipped about two-thirds of the way through the competition, and the last win against a New Zealand team was the Reds’ victory against the Blues in round 11. It’s an obvious concern on the eve of the British and Lions series. Two-tier Super has a problem The win-loss record outline above is part of a much broader problem. The top six finishers this year are effectively the same top six teams from the past four years of Super Rugby Pacific. In fact, in the competition’s history (beginning in 2022) only eight teams have finished in the top six, the Waratahs sneaking in twice (6th in 2023 and 6th in 2022) and the Highlanders sneaking in once (6th in 2024). It’s a competition with bedded-in haves and have-nots, as the points differential from this year highlights again. The big six all have positive points differentials, and the rest have deeply negative ones, with the Highlanders the ‘best’ at minus 90. This is one reason why this column has been sympathetic towards Dan McKellar at the Waratahs this year. He’s walked into a job in the current have-nots, and Super Rugby’s lack of player movement makes upward mobility very hard to achieve.