The Trump administration seemed to favor Russia over Ukraine this week (Photo by Brendan Smialowski ... [+] / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images This column generally stays away from US domestic political topics. The professional expertise on hand, after decades of practice abroad, tends to be about international affairs. But when Washington impinges on global geopolitics it enters the remit under view. This week the Trump administration, including the President himself, displayed its geopolitical wares at top world forums and became relevant to the column. Let us start with foreign affairs leading up to the different summits this week in Munich and Riyadh amplified by President Trump’s statements from Florida. Washington had already picked quarrels with neighbors and allies such as Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland, on the grounds that the US was asserting its self-interests. Whatever the merits of each case, the overall effect must tend the US towards isolation. When a superpower shouts at neighbors loudly in the media, it embarrasses their leaders in front of their public, forcing them to take a hostile stance, thus isolating the superpower. Isolationism’s downsides, being well-known, don’t need repeating at length. Trade and the economy suffer quickly. Rival powers fill the vacuum. That scenario already simmered in the background when J.D.Vance made his speech at the Nato summit berating Europe for spongeing off the US and not carrying its weight on military spending. He was voicing what many already thought, even within Europe. What he didn’t say, though, and nor did anyone else - the US spent decades during the Cold War forcing Europe to standardize its military equipment in alignment with America’s military-industrial complex. It wasn’t easy for Europeans to create their own war machines because the US economy profited hugely from selling its wares there. Above all, the effect of Vance’s loud anti-diplomatic reprimands was to turn the Atlantic Ocean from a bridge into a gulf. He could have done his work quietly to better effect. He has unwittingly driven Europe to unite as rival to America. Again, isolationism seems to be the result. President Trump’s statements in Florida seemingly favoring Russia over Ukraine, incited hostility from Zelensky and caused seismic shock waves among traditional US allies. Nobody stopped to ask why, if the President demanded Ukraine’s raw materials in return for American aid, why did he not make any conditions for Moscow? How will America materially benefit from providing peace for Russia? Will the loss of trade revenue caused by inevitable barriers to Europe be compensated by revenue benefits from Russia? And won’t that involve rebuilding the Russian economy which will re-empower Putin? What is America’s self-interest here? At the same time, the divide between Trump and Zelensky, while temporarily uniting Ukrainians against the US, will one day be used to undermine Zelensky for alienating his country’s biggest backer. In that regard, President Trump has already weakened Ukraine. Many months ago, this column predicted the new administration would favor Russia in Ukraine while Moscow would look the other way as Israel bombed Iran. We are witnessing the first part of that scenario click into place. The second part is already gearing up, and the Iranian leadership shows signs of knowing it. A previous column noted how a top Iranian general spoke publicly about how Russian forces deliberately refused to defend Syria. More recently, Iranian brass have made mollifying noises towards the new Syria regime. Tehran is playing possum hoping to avoid punishment. MORE FOR YOU Musk And Trump Question Fort Knox’s $400 Billion Gold Supply—But Bessent Says It’s Still There. Here's What We Know. Here’s Where Trump’s Government Layoffs Are—IRS, TSA And More JPMorgan Issues Serious Wall Street Bitcoin Price Warning If Israel bombs nuclear and other installations within Iran, it will complete Netanyahu’s defanging of Tehran’s military throw-weight abroad. Not at all a bad thing. Even for Moscow. The Kremlin never did want Iran to have an independent nuclear capability. One built and controlled by Moscow, yes. Independent, no. It’s worth noting, however, that any open Israeli bombing of Iranian territory will cement the mullah regime’s control in country just as the 1980s Iran-Iraq war did. This also suits Moscow which doesn’t want regime change in Iran. Certainly not a western-style, pro-west democratic country. It wants a more dependent, obedient, Iran. Hitherto, for many years, Washington has refused to green-light Netanyahu’s ambitions to bomb Iran. Previous Presidents believed that internal unrest would eventually topple the mullah regime just as it did the Soviet Union and other authoritarian regimes. That has not happened, partly because Moscow and Beijing upheld Tehran but mainly because the US fecklessly failed to help Iranian opposition movements, believing that any interference from outside would allow the regime to posture as patriotic and cement its power. That, certainly, applied and applies to Israeli bombing of Iran. So, whatever happens, there will be no relief for Iran’s population. Some have suggested that President Trump’s pro-Moscow noises in Saudi indicate, finally, implementation of the long-promised pivot to Asia with a sturdier stance toward China. The problem is, Washington faces a global alliance of Russia-Iran-North Korea-China, one that reaches deep into Europe and South America. The US cannot pivot away from anything. There’s no either-or option to resist either Russia or China. It should do both. But Moscow absolutely loves the pivot notion because, while America toils away across the Pacific, Russia gets to dominate Europe and recreate the Warsaw Pact. Putin is deeply steeped in the Cold War and he remembers perfectly the US-China entente launched by Nixon, one that outflanked the Soviets strategically. So Putin would like to return the favor. He dreams of dividing and polarizing America vs. China, manipulating both. Such absolute breaks and redirections as all the above seemed utterly remote and implausible until now. But in the current era anything is possible. Editorial StandardsForbes Accolades