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16 Apr, 2025
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Why Optimistic Economists are Getting Trump’s Tariffs All Wrong with Abhijit Das
@Source: thecore.in
In this episode, author and journalist Puja Mehra speaks to trade policy expert Abhijit Das. President Donald Trump's Liberation Day, as Trump calls it, is a serious blow to the rules-based global trade order that the US had led as a champion of free trade for 80 years. This trading system was biassed against developing countries like India and in favour of developed countries, but the rise of low-cost manufacturing in China has meant that the US no longer dominates the world economy. At the core of Trump's blow to the trading system is the US' frustration over unequal market access. What are the implications for India? Is the old world trade order lost forever? What should replace it? Tune in for insights into the current state of Trump's trade war.NOTE: This transcript is done by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on feedback@thecore.in.—TRANSCRIPTPuja Mehra (host): Hello, I'm Puja Mehra. President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs have gone into effect. China has pressed tariffs on imports from the US in retaliation at a rate exactly matching Trump's.The EU too may join this trade war soon. Liberation Day, as Trump calls it, is a serious blow to the rules-based global trade order that the US had led as a champion of free trade for 80 years. This trading system was biased against developing countries like India and in favour of developed countries, but the rise of low-cost manufacturing in China has meant that the US no longer dominates the world economy.At the core of Trump's blow to the trading system is the US' frustration over unequal market access. Might what's happening turn out to be good for India? Is the old world trade order lost forever?What should replace it? My guest on the show today is Professor Abhijit Das, who, on an earlier episode, helped us understand how the US has systematically sabotaged the rules-based trading system all along since the time the Obama administration was in office. Today, Professor Das explained how Trump is moving to replace it with a power-based system and how narratives suggesting there are silver linings for India oversimplify what's actually going on.Professor Das is one of India's leading trade experts. He has worked in India's commerce industry. Professor Das is one of India's leading trade experts.He has worked in India's commerce ministry, was the head of the Centre of WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, and has long years of experience of contributing to India's international trade negotiations, including in the anti-dumping and subsidy negotiations at the WTO. —Puja Mehra: Professor Das, thank you for coming again on the show to help us understand the implications and fallout of the April 2 announcement by US President Donald Trump on his reciprocal tariffs plan.Abhijit Das: Thank you, Puja, for having me back on your show.Puja Mehra: I thought we would approach what has happened in two broad questions. One, the question of understanding what is going on, what is this new world trade order that seems to be emerging, if it is going to lead to a complete abdication of what was earlier the WTO and the rules-based order, howsoever dissatisfactory for various trade partners, what might replace it if it is given up completely or if there is going to be some effort to salvage whatever remains of it. And once we understand what is happening around the world, the implications of what has happened on April 2, after that I thought we would come to India and what it means for India, etc.So, I wanted to first understand what this new trade order is that we are seeing. Is this a temporary arrangement or is it permanent because we are seeing countries are responding to what has been announced by the US with reciprocal tariffs. They are not going to the WTO for remedies, perhaps because of the reasons you would explain last time you were on the show.So, what is this new trade order and is this the end of the free trade era as we know it?Abhijit Das: Puja, what we need to recognise is that it's not yet a new order that is emerging. We are in the midst of chaos. We are at the centre of a disorder.What this disorder will lead to remains to be seen, whether it will result in the WTO getting completely sidelined, made completely irrelevant, or whether the WTO will emerge in a different incarnation with some additional set of rules, with some new disciplines. That remains to be seen. It's also possible that we might be confronted with an entirely different configuration of rules whereby we do not have any overarching set of framework of rules the way WTO provides it.Instead, it would be a regime that is completely dominated by power play, and that is what we are witnessing today. So, will this power play-dominated regime persist? If it...
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