A golf course is an unusual setting for an urgent meeting between two international leaders. But today, Keir Starmer will travel up to the west coast of Scotland to meet the US President, Donald Trump, who has been enjoying a four-day holiday at the Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire. Trump purchased Turnberry golf course and its accompanying hotel in 2014 for $60m, and in recent days has been conducting trade talks and diplomacy between rounds of golf.
This marks Trump’s first visit to the UK since his re-election (he will return to the UK in September for an official state visit). The White House has described it as a “private trip”, but the US President has also taken this as an opportunity to bear some influence on European politics. (Upon arriving in Scotland on Friday night, Trump told reporters that European countries need to “stop the windmills” and added that immigration is “killing Europe”). Over the weekend, he held talks with Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commissioner, during which the pair agreed to impose a 15 per cent US tariff on all EU goods.
The location of these talks stands in stark contrast to the content of Trump and Starmer’s discussion this afternoon, which is likely to be dominated by the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As I have written this morning, pressure has been mounting on the Prime Minister to recognise the state of Palestine and to take more strident action to alleviate this humanitarian crisis. Though the government’s position remains unchanged on recognition (they have said they will only do so at the point of “maximum impact”), Starmer will recall his cabinet from their summer break for an emergency meeting on the Gaza crisis.
Over the weekend, Israel allowed a brief cessation of violence in several areas of Gaza to assist the safe passage of humanitarian aid, but the deathly famine is ongoing. The World Health Organisation has warned malnutrition has reached “alarming levels”. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) dropped seven packages containing sugar, flour and canned food into Gaza. The UAE, Jordan and Egypt have also delivered aid by land and air. This is far from enough.
In response, the meeting between the two leaders will likely focus on the push for an urgent ceasefire. The US, alongside Qatar and Egypt, has been mediating talks between Israel and Hamas. After the US and Israel withdrew their teams from Doha last week, Trump said Hamas “didn’t really want to make a deal”. The US’s position on this conflict clearly has some influence over Starmer’s thinking on recognition. When Emmanuel Macron announced that France will recognise the state of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio described the decision as “reckless”. Trump said Macron’s decision “doesn’t matter”.
The UK’s reluctance to follow France’s lead is likely driven by concern from within government that taking such a decision in the middle of Trump’s visit could derail discussions over the ongoing UK-US trade deal (Trump and Starmer are likely to make progress on this during their meeting today). But this justification will not dampen the growing consternation over Gaza within the cabinet, nor will it win over voters or backbench MPs who have long criticised Starmer for his reticence to act.
This meeting is a tangible indication of the position the Prime Minister finds himself in. He is caught between mounting domestic pressure to recognise Palestine and take bolder action on Gaza, and the need to maintain a renewed but sensitive special relationship between the UK and the US. It is a tricky balancing act, with parameters likely to shift quickly. This is the most difficult test of Starmer’s premiership to date. Only time will tell how well he fares.
[See also: Will Keir Starmer recognise Palestine?]
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