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India’s Operation Sindoor Against Terrorists In Pakistan Is All About Geopolitical Timing
@Source: news18.com
Wars are not to be fought with hot heads. They are won with cold precision and planning, and timing is paramount.
India’s first military response to the Pahalgam Islamic terror attack on April 22 in which non-Muslim tourists were screened and massacred came whistling through the night breeze in the shape of missiles in the wee hours of Wednesday. Nine terror camps in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab province have been pulverised.
Moot here is the timing.
The Indian counterstrikes come at a time of a Trump tariff-induced uncertainty and hectic global trade deals to tide over it. They come riding on India’s frenetic diplomatic reach out to the major powers and also in its neighbourhood. And the reprisals, just two weeks after the Pahalgam attack, give the jolted Indian domestic audience immense confidence in its government.
Just a day before the missile strike on the Pakistani terror camps, New Delhi reportedly proposed Washington to charge zero-for-zero tariffs on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals from the US. The reciprocal tariffs offer will hold up to a certain quantity of imports from the US beyond which imported industrial goods would attract regular duties. An India-US trade deal is expected to be closed by autumn this year, the Bloomberg report said quoting sources.
With the current urgency even in the US to negotiate new deals like these, steps in trade will come packaged with the understanding that America will not meddle in India’s right to protect its own safety and sovereignty.
India’s retaliation also comes hours after it inked a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom. It comes as a statement of India’s global intent to carry out trade at a time of rising regional tensions and a world drifting back toward trade barriers and tariff wars.
The spectre of Trump-era protectionism makes the timing perfect. British automobiles, whiskies, and machinery will gain, while Indian exporters get better access to UK markets for garments, leather goods, jewellery, and food products.
More importantly, the FTA binds India and the UK in a closer embrace and makes it difficult for one to work against the other’s interests.
The response of Russia, perhaps India’s closest global ally, was initially confusing.
Right after the April 22 attack, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov called both Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar and Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar and asked them to resolve disputes through political and diplomatic means. He brought up the 1972 Shimla Agreement and the 1999 Lahore Declaration as frameworks for engagement.
Some in New Delhi viewed this approach as monkey-balancing and not Russia’s traditional unequivocal support for India, especially given the barbarity of the Pahalgam attack.
But Russia’s top boss soon moved into damage control. President Vladimir Putin spoke to PM Narendra Modi on Monday, strongly condemning the Pahalgam attack and offering full support in punishing the perpetrators. The Kremlin’s statement made no mention of mediation and aligned fully with India’s counterterrorism stand. Putin also accepted PM Modi’s invitation to visit India later this year.
Perhaps the most interesting has been China’s stance after the missile strikes.
In a statement on Wednesday, it called on India and Pakistan to exercise maximum restraint.
Trying to assuage its neighbourhood lackey, Pakistan, it said: “China finds India’s military operation early this morning regrettable.”
But in the same breath, it said: “China opposes all forms of terrorism.”
“We are concerned about the ongoing situation. India and Pakistan are and will always be each other’s neighbours. They are both China’s neighbours as well. We urge both sides to act in the larger interest of peace and stability, remain calm, exercise restraint and refrain from taking actions that may further complicate the situation,” read the Chinese foreign ministry statement, pulling China subtly and deftly out of a partisan commitment.
India and China have been silently and gradually coming closer since the Galwan skirmish. Diplomatic back-channels have been extremely busy. China wants trade with India to partly offset the effect of Trump tariffs. It is unlikely to destabilise the region and sacrifice its self-interest at the altar of Pakistani adventurism.
India has also sent a quiet but strong message to troublemakers in neighbouring Bangladesh that any misadventure by state or non-state actors may lead to outcomes it would like to imagine.
Overall, Bharat has chosen the time for military reprisal wisely. Whether it snowballs into much bigger geopolitical changes in the region is to be seen.
Abhijit Majumder is a senior journalist. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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